Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Not really. But ME is another story... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Hard to believe with N flow at ageo level but it's the GGEM, also occluded but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 What sucks is that were still 84 hours out.. plenty of changes can happen.. not on board yet here as many of you should do same Yeah I keep saying that to myself. These solutions are what I want to see on Saturday morning..lol. We got some model runs to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Kind of a nastiness to your tone today that noone really is fond of. thanks for answering my text the other day BTW WTF ru talking about? I am pumped! What text never got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Say this storm reached full potential...(1-3"/hr snowfall rates with wind gusts to 60 mph) -- long shot, but would they postpone the game? I know it's football and not the fair weather sport baseball that I play....but still. 99.9999999999999999999999999999 percent sure the game would not be postponed. If anything they would push it up from the 8:20 time to an earlier time slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 BOX issued before the 12Z was in .... DON/T WANT TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE 00Z ECMWF GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR VERIFICATION AND THE FACT THAT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS GIVEN RETROGRADING UPPER AIR PATTEN SUPPORTING A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION THE MORE AMPLIFIED SCENARIO BY THE ECMWF IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW ENCOUNTER AN UNSTABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASED BAROCLINICITY FROM THE CURRENT STRONG COLD ADVECTION FLOW OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS. NEVERTHELESS WILL JUST HAVE TO BE PATIENT AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO BEGIN CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION BEFORE WE CAN PROVIDE SPECIFICS REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah I keep saying that to myself. These solutions are what I want to see on Saturday morning..lol. We got some model runs to deal with. Optimistic right now, But we are inside 100 hrs out so things are trending to what we want, Now if we can maintain it a few more cycles........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 BOX issued before the 12Z was in .... DON/T WANT TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE 00Z ECMWF GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR VERIFICATION AND THE FACT THAT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS GIVEN RETROGRADING UPPER AIR PATTEN SUPPORTING A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION THE MORE AMPLIFIED SCENARIO BY THE ECMWF IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW ENCOUNTER AN UNSTABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASED BAROCLINICITY FROM THE CURRENT STRONG COLD ADVECTION FLOW OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS. NEVERTHELESS WILL JUST HAVE TO BE PATIENT AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO BEGIN CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION BEFORE WE CAN PROVIDE SPECIFICS REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. Significant convergence to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If the storm stays east of BOS, then at the surface, temps will be cold. If it comes into CC Bay, then sleet may be an issue. The track of the low would keep winds more northerly across eastern mass. In fact, there would likely be a strong cstl front in the area. I see signs of that too. Of course, this is taking the euro and gfs/gem verbatim Yup, we wanted west, but TOO far west could be a disastah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 wow, the GEM flips me over to rain fortunately, it has all kinds of problems with marine air backwashing, i recall it did the same in last janaury's new years storm to no avail. Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 A nice gathering here today for the MOST IMPORTANT EURO RUN EVAH. Hello, all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah I keep saying that to myself. These solutions are what I want to see on Saturday morning..lol. We got some model runs to deal with. Yea unlike the other so called busts this year, this is where emotional investment comes into play.. aka losing sleep, looking at models instead of Xmas shopping etc.. For first timers to eastuswx and Americanwx.. enjoy the ride... btw coastalwx.. do you think we should have radio show? And Where is will???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah I keep saying that to myself. These solutions are what I want to see on Saturday morning..lol. We got some model runs to deal with. We do, and I will be euphoric only if this Euro run holds course. We're in good territory if we can string together 2 or 3 in a row. I will grant that this is still a great improvement considering we're normally feeling this way about one run at 144 hours or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 A nice gathering here today for the MOST IMPORTANT EURO RUN EVAH. Hello, all. Not most important at all.. last nights was the most an it started this roller coaster west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Where are you located? montreal i inflitrate from the north ill be happy with 4-8 and to watch you weenies get buried its looking good right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Euro, HAS Started, And initialized thank god, was late yesterday....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 IT has initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I feel like this run of the Euro needs theme music behind it as it comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 BTW, my co-worker has a product that compares model runs, and the gfs and euro right now (12z gfs and 00z euro) are lock and step until just north of 40N, but almost on the money until that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Euro, HAS Started, And initialized thank god, was late yesterday....... Dr oui Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 BTW, my co-worker has a product that compares model runs, and the gfs and euro right now (12z gfs and 00z euro) are lock and step until just north of 40N, but almost on the money until that point. Tha'ts really good to hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nervous time. One of those "have to go the bathroom" nervous stomach times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 BTW, my co-worker has a product that compares model runs, and the gfs and euro right now (12z gfs and 00z euro) are lock and step until just north of 40N, but almost on the money until that point. That is fantastic. Both of them failing miserably at this time range would be stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 i edited my location to best fit this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad River Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 montreal i inflitrate from the north ill be happy with 4-8 and to watch you weenies get buried its looking good right now I'm just a couple of hours south of you and couldn't agree more. I'll gladly take anything besides rain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 That is fantastic. Both of them failing miserably at this time range would be stunning. IMO given the pattern and shifts over the past 24 hours.. not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Once we get a better consensus on exactly where this storm will track and start seeing more consistency then we can start worrying about QPF totals and where the heaviest QPF totals will setup...that should be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nervous time. One of those "have to go meet Wiz in the bathroom" nervous stomach times That's nice for you, but I'm more thinking about the model runs myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Once we get a better consensus on exactly where this storm will track and start seeing more consistency then we can start worrying about QPF totals and where the heaviest QPF totals will setup...that should be fun! Its all fun now........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Out to hr24. Our SW s/w is nicely amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Once we get a better consensus on exactly where this storm will track and start seeing more consistency then we can start worrying about QPF totals and where the heaviest QPF totals will setup...that should be fun! And first cweat ruc post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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