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12/19-12/20 threat


CoastalWx

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Yeah there are still some runs to go.

GFS ensembles are a about 60-70 miles east of the BM.

I think I'll still take that right now...that's not really that extreme, especially given how it's still 12z Thursday...seems like even the ensembles have overall been shifting westward...weren't the ensembles over 100 mi east of the BM at one point?

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No i didn't bail. In fact if you recall. i said 12z runs today would determine the final outcome.

You though..bailed after the 18z GFS yesterday

No I didn't!!! I said before the 00z GFS SNE would see warning criteria.. I was saying that all day yesterday.

I thought you voted no in that poll (that the euro wouldn't eat crow). Did you mean to vote yes?

Whatever though, I think we agree. I love your optimism - definitely better than all the naysaying over each and every run.

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Who cares who bailed and who didn't bail...it really doesn't matter. Everyone is acting like this storm is occurring tonight and has a 100% chance of verifying, the recent trends have been nice but nothing is really close to being set in stone, still some work needs to be done. It's becoming a bit more likely that at lest E SNE will see some sort of impact but we still need to see some more run to run and model to model consistency here. This is still 4 days out here.

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Who cares who bailed and who didn't bail...it really doesn't matter. Everyone is acting like this storm is occurring tonight and has a 100% chance of verifying, the recent trends have been nice but nothing is really close to being set in stone, still some work needs to be done. It's becoming a bit more likely that at lest E SNE will see some sort of impact but we still need to see some more run to run and model to model consistency here. This is still 4 days out here.

LOL..who are you trying to impress?

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Who cares who bailed and who didn't bail...it really doesn't matter. Everyone is acting like this storm is occurring tonight and has a 100% chance of verifying, the recent trends have been nice but nothing is really close to being set in stone, still some work needs to be done. It's becoming a bit more likely that at lest E SNE will see some sort of impact but we still need to see some more run to run and model to model consistency here. This is still 4 days out here.

I think I am back to be more worried about it raining than a whiff. It could still whiff of course.. but the Euro is pretty close to mixing me. So is the 12z GGEM. GFS is typical SE bias at this point

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After this debacle you've just had..think they'd better remove your pro forecaster tag and give it to me

:lol: I'm sure they're discussing the matter right now

We'll see what the 12z Euro does. The 12z guidance is very encouraging. If the euro stays steady, then I'll have some decent confidence in warning criteria out to ORH-CON. Otherwise, I've been an unwavering advocate of a big SE MA hit for a while. The only question is the western extent.

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:lol: I'm sure they're discussing the matter right now

We'll see what the 12z Euro does. The 12z guidance is very encouraging. If the euro stays steady, then I'll have some decent confidence in warning criteria out to ORH-CON. Otherwise, I've been an unwavering advocate of a big SE MA hit for a while. The only question is the western extent.

The ggem and ukie both are west.. that's often a sign of what the euro will do

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LOL, c'mon guys.Footlong weenies getting shoved into fannies right now. Lets gets this solution for another 24 hrs at least. It does look good for snow, but the details are yet to be determined.

Let us high five total strangers for just one more hour. Then, the Doc will come in and give us his diagnosis of terminal cancer.

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:lol: I'm sure they're discussing the matter right now

We'll see what the 12z Euro does. The 12z guidance is very encouraging. If the euro stays steady, then I'll have some decent confidence in warning criteria out to ORH-CON. Otherwise, I've been an unwavering advocate of a big SE MA hit for a while. The only question is the western extent.

well the GEM brings plenty of precipitation to all of new england, in fact it clears 4 inches straight back as far west as ottawa.

of course, we know the final solutions are yet TBD and most likely the highest impacts will be near the coast

but IMO all of new england stands a good chance of seeing accumulating snow out of this if a closed low can get into that position and slow.....my rudimentary assessment.

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