NorEastermass128 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Will be interesting to watch the 12 o'clock news. Burbank is probably going nuts...I bet he jumps in the wagon with 90 percent confidence...once the EURO comes out at 12z...if it's similar to 12z GFS and its 00z run...then the news will be really hyped tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If anyone says the word "lock" one more time, they should be banned. LOCKS don't happen this far out. Please calm yourselves down. Really. Lock it Bobby lalalalala lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Point-click sounding foe SE MA around TAN @ 102h. If it gets too wrapped up, we may be playing games with the dryslot. Notice the lack of RH above 700mb. There's actually a lot of low level frontogenesis so that could help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 amazing storm for you guys. Its going to be hard to watch but hope you all get destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Definitely some encouraging signs over the past 10 hours or so, really beginning with the 0z Euro last night...even the 0z NAM last night looked decent. To see the 12z models come in today basically showing a further west solution is definitely a good thing and at least continues to slowly increases confidence of some sort of impact for eastern SNE. Would be a huge boost if we can continue to see a westward trend on the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 12z GGEM at 84 hrs looks like its gonna be chucking weenies for you guys... http://www.weatherof...ast/233_100.gif Yea 60mm or 2.36 QPF would be a weenie chucked to the moon, nice runs so far today, hoping for the best, you guys do realize that the GFS has sustained 35 plus with 925 winds over 60 on the coast, that is the big boy depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Canadian is a 978 low just ne of the BM at hr 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GGEM FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Good freaking lord!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 People just give up too easily. usually optimism is the way to go and ends up being right. Folks like Sam who paint themselves into a corner end up wearing dunce caps and getting smacked with weenies across the face. I posted yesterday the Euro has blown some big snowstorms in recent yrs as close as 3-4 days out. Once it gets on board and abruptly makes a huge continuty change..you know the other models are gonna follow suit. it never fails ill have to remember that in the future....i guess we are talking in the midrange say within 100 hours, a big continuity change from the euro is a red flag? sounds like a very good point and one to consider, not sure if any of the mets have a comment on that. of course it happened last yr as we know on 12/19. you should have been in here last night, it was an absolute funeral. addmitteldly, i was part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 you gotta hand it to CTBlizz he nailed this Calling it 4-5 days out? lol after the unstable nature of the models in the last 24 hours, there's a lot of room for movement, one way or the other over the next 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Feet of snow are locked ..LOCKED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If anyone says the word "lock" one more time, they should be banned. LOCKS don't happen this far out. Please calm yourselves down. Really. Glad you got your met tag, please give Ryan our love, too bad he can not log on! No locks but very very encouraged for at least warning criteria for your Eastern Zones, uh me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 you gotta hand it to CTBlizz he nailed this Blizz bailed after the Euro yesterday if I remember he voted no in that poll.. Jerry was the one hanging has hat on the 18z NAM (and me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If it gets too wrapped up, we may be playing games with the dryslot. Notice the lack of RH above 700mb. There's actually a lot of low level frontogenesis so that could help. Wow...pretty crazy how dry it becomes above 700mb...we definitely would not want to see this thing become too wrapped or otherwise this thing might draw in enough dry air to really hinder totals Like you said though, hopefully the pretty strong low level frontogenesis and strong lift can help overcome this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 granted these 12z runs are great, im really wary of this potential until the euro comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ill have to remember that in the future....i guess we are talking in the midrange say within 100 hours, a big continuity change from the euro is a red flag? sounds like a very good point and one to consider, not sure if any of the mets have a comment on that. of course it happened last yr as we know on 12/19. you should have been in here last night, it was an absolute funeral. addmitteldly, i was part of it. I read the death wishes this morning. I'm glad i was fast asleep. I went to bed feeling ok with how things looked and woke up with elation and wood when i saw the Euro. Actually got Wills text at 2:45 Am ..then fell back asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 granted these 12z runs are great, im really wary of this potential until the euro comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 People just give up too easily. usually optimism is the way to go and ends up being right. Folks like Sam who paint themselves into a corner end up wearing dunce caps and getting smacked with weenies across the face. I posted yesterday the Euro has blown some big snowstorms in recent yrs as close as 3-4 days out. Once it gets on board and abruptly makes a huge continuty change..you know the other models are gonna follow suit. it never fails I love how frequently you use the words optimism and pessimism in your posts. It shows your lack of objectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 LOL, Canadian looks like the 00z euro tucking the low ne of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Blizz bailed after the Euro yesterday if I remember he voted no in that poll.. Jerry was the one hanging has hat on the 18z NAM (and me) Before. Anyone pats themseve on the back with Kevs weenie they better wait until the storm is over, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If anyone says the word "lock" one more time, they should be banned. LOCKS don't happen this far out. Please calm yourselves down. Really. Go back to Oswego...we can get excited regardless...that is what this is about...at least for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Blizz bailed after the Euro yesterday if I remember he voted no in that poll.. Jerry was the one hanging has hat on the 18z NAM (and me) Before. Anyone pats themselve on the back with Kevs weenie they better wait until the storm is over, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 granted these 12z runs are great, im really wary of this potential until the euro comes out Yeah there are still some runs to go. GFS ensembles are a about 60-70 miles east of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Blizz bailed after the Euro yesterday if I remember he voted no in that poll.. Jerry was the one hanging has hat on the 18z NAM (and me) Before. Anyone pat themselves on the back with Kevs weenie they better wait until the storm is over, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Blizz bailed after the Euro yesterday if I remember he voted no in that poll.. Jerry was the one hanging has hat on the 18z NAM (and me) No i didn't bail. In fact if you recall. i said 12z runs today would determine the final outcome. You though..bailed after the 18z GFS yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 LOL, Canadian looks like the 00z euro tucking the low ne of Boston. I am thinking euro holds serve or may be even a little better after everything thats gone on this am....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 im just messing around guys, dont take it so personally Blizz's optimism is always a breath of fresh air though around here though. i know you guys are all smart and know what you're doing and all your inputs is what makes this such a great thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I love how frequently you use the words optimism and pessimism in your posts. It shows your lack of objectivity. After this debacle you've just had..think they'd better remove your pro forecaster tag and give it to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 People just give up too easily. usually optimism is the way to go and ends up being right. Folks like Sam who paint themselves into a corner end up wearing dunce caps and getting smacked with weenies across the face. I posted yesterday the Euro has blown some big snowstorms in recent yrs as close as 3-4 days out. Once it gets on board and abruptly makes a huge continuty change..you know the other models are gonna follow suit. it never fails Agree strongly When you have favorable set ups like this it is stupid to worry about every deterministic run. If you get any sort of s/w it's going to set off a positive feedback loop and amplify. And I agree about the Euro.. when it flips inside 4-5 days like this it's usually because it's "catching onto something" that it wasn't "seeing" before. Don't know how to describe it better, but you see it happen a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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