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12/19-12/20 threat


CoastalWx

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Definitely some encouraging signs over the past 10 hours or so, really beginning with the 0z Euro last night...even the 0z NAM last night looked decent. To see the 12z models come in today basically showing a further west solution is definitely a good thing and at least continues to slowly increases confidence of some sort of impact for eastern SNE. Would be a huge boost if we can continue to see a westward trend on the 12z euro.

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12z GGEM at 84 hrs looks like its gonna be chucking weenies for you guys...

http://www.weatherof...ast/233_100.gif

Yea 60mm or 2.36 QPF would be a weenie chucked to the moon, nice runs so far today, hoping for the best, you guys do realize that the GFS has sustained 35 plus with 925 winds over 60 on the coast, that is the big boy depicted.

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People just give up too easily. usually optimism is the way to go and ends up being right. Folks like Sam who paint themselves into a corner end up wearing dunce caps and getting smacked with weenies across the face.

I posted yesterday the Euro has blown some big snowstorms in recent yrs as close as 3-4 days out. Once it gets on board and abruptly makes a huge continuty change..you know the other models are gonna follow suit. it never fails

ill have to remember that in the future....i guess we are talking in the midrange say within 100 hours, a big continuity change from the euro is a red flag? sounds like a very good point and one to consider, not sure if any of the mets have a comment on that. of course it happened last yr as we know on 12/19.

you should have been in here last night, it was an absolute funeral. addmitteldly, i was part of it.

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If anyone says the word "lock" one more time, they should be banned. LOCKS don't happen this far out. Please calm yourselves down. Really.

Glad you got your met tag, please give Ryan our love, too bad he can not log on! No locks but very very encouraged for at least warning criteria for your Eastern Zones, uh me.

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If it gets too wrapped up, we may be playing games with the dryslot. Notice the lack of RH above 700mb. There's actually a lot of low level frontogenesis so that could help.

Wow...pretty crazy how dry it becomes above 700mb...we definitely would not want to see this thing become too wrapped or otherwise this thing might draw in enough dry air to really hinder totals :axe:

Like you said though, hopefully the pretty strong low level frontogenesis and strong lift can help overcome this.

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ill have to remember that in the future....i guess we are talking in the midrange say within 100 hours, a big continuity change from the euro is a red flag? sounds like a very good point and one to consider, not sure if any of the mets have a comment on that. of course it happened last yr as we know on 12/19.

you should have been in here last night, it was an absolute funeral. addmitteldly, i was part of it.

I read the death wishes this morning. I'm glad i was fast asleep. I went to bed feeling ok with how things looked and woke up with elation and wood when i saw the Euro. Actually got Wills text at 2:45 Am ..then fell back asleep.

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People just give up too easily. usually optimism is the way to go and ends up being right. Folks like Sam who paint themselves into a corner end up wearing dunce caps and getting smacked with weenies across the face.

I posted yesterday the Euro has blown some big snowstorms in recent yrs as close as 3-4 days out. Once it gets on board and abruptly makes a huge continuty change..you know the other models are gonna follow suit. it never fails

I love how frequently you use the words optimism and pessimism in your posts. It shows your lack of objectivity.

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People just give up too easily. usually optimism is the way to go and ends up being right. Folks like Sam who paint themselves into a corner end up wearing dunce caps and getting smacked with weenies across the face.

I posted yesterday the Euro has blown some big snowstorms in recent yrs as close as 3-4 days out. Once it gets on board and abruptly makes a huge continuty change..you know the other models are gonna follow suit. it never fails

Agree strongly Snowman.gif

When you have favorable set ups like this it is stupid to worry about every deterministic run. If you get any sort of s/w it's going to set off a positive feedback loop and amplify.

And I agree about the Euro.. when it flips inside 4-5 days like this it's usually because it's "catching onto something" that it wasn't "seeing" before. Don't know how to describe it better, but you see it happen a lot.

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