OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 LOL no it doesn't..You FTL I'll go to my stats final today naked if the 12z euro holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Here's what happened. Euro got the latest raob data last night and ingested it and that's why it brought it so far west. Now that the other modelling has ingested the same data we're starting to see them all come west. Expect them to drop like flies today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Being fairly new to the model watching scene, can somebody answer this for me, When the Euro shows one solution, and the NAM (or GFS, etc.) shows something different, are people ALWAYS, eventually looking for the various versions to compliment each other, especially at this range (3-4 days out)? How often do the various models truly agree with each other in the end? Just wondering because it seems that some people really want to see the similarities amongst the various model runs almost as a confidence builder in solidifying the final solution/ forecast, or to just help them sleep better at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'll go to my stats final today naked if the 12z euro holds Please don't.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM is decent, but is oddly strung out with the energy in the trough and doesn't dig very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'll go to my stats final today naked if the 12z euro holds Carpet matching the drapes??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Here's what happened. Euro got the latest raob data last night and ingested it and that's why it brought it so far west. Now that the other modelling has ingested the same data we're starting to see them all come west. Expect them to drop like flies today what other modelling have come west like the Euro? And if that raob data was SO profound as to cause a shift like this, I would think it would have similar ramification in the rest of the models. Might not go back as far east as it was, but I doubt the 12z Euro will look much like the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Here's what happened. Euro got the latest raob data last night and ingested it and that's why it brought it so far west. Now that the other modelling has ingested the same data we're starting to see them all come west. Expect them to drop like flies today This coming from the guy who sees accumlating snow any time theres cloud cover. 'Come on man, at least let us enjoy a thread of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Carpet matching the drapes??? lol ... I can just picture Sam walking amongst his classmates outside, one hand holding his slide rule, the other cupping his junk. I'm concerned about shrinkage ... Mighty chilly in Plymouth today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Carpet matching the drapes??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 what other modelling have come west like the Euro? And if that raob data was SO profound as to cause a shift like this, I would think it would have similar ramification in the rest of the models. Might not go back as far east as it was, but I doubt the 12z Euro will look much like the 00z run. Um the NAM. so we're 2-2 GFS is next today. Like I said when you bust on this..and you will ....be prepared for what you deserve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 lol ... I can just picture Sam walking amongst his classmates outside, one hand holding his slide rule, the other cupping his junk. I'm concerned about shrinkage ... Mighty chilly in Plymouth today. The stats room is always very warm. One hand won't get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Um the NAM. so we're 2-2 GFS is next today. Like I said when you bust on this..and you will ....be prepared for what you deserve Well, its goofus time...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This coming from the guy who sees accumlating snow any time theres cloud cover. 'Come on man, at least let us enjoy a thread of hope. What?? Dropping like flies meaning they all give up the nonsensical OTS solution and come west like the Euro/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The stats room is always very warm. One hand won't get the job done. Thats what he said......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Um the NAM. so we're 2-2 GFS is next today. Like I said when you bust on this..and you will ....be prepared for what you deserve Like I said before, I will be ecstatic is I bust. Also, I stand by my original call of a decent storm for SE MA. I've never said this goes OTS. I'd define a bust as warning criteria snow west of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GFS running...most important run of our lives for now...until we get the next one in. Whatever shows the storm I'm going with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The stats room is always very warm. One hand won't get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If I lived in eastern most New England I would be very optomistic, outside of that region very cautious. I hope you all get buried out that way, and I am hoping you get the big one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 GFS running...most important run of our lives for now...until we get the next one in. Whatever shows the storm I'm going with. Any trend west is a good + sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GFS running... What site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What site? the model is running..there aren't any products available yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Like I said before, I will be ecstatic is I bust. Also, I stand by my original call of a decent storm for SE MA. I've never said this goes OTS. I'd define a bust as warning criteria snow west of ORH. You said zero snow west of ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Any trend west is a good + sign. What were your thoughts looking at the 12z nam? It appears that it was starting to ampify late and look like it was going to hook NW, looking at the last panel......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 the model is running..there aren't any products available yet. Just out to hr 9........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What?? Dropping like flies meaning they all give up the nonsensical OTS solution and come west like the Euro/NAM Post interpretation FAIL on my part. my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Without a doubt the most important run of any of our lives is the 12z Euro today. GFS still won't be a huge hit..but color me shocked if it doesn't come siggy west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 What were your thoughts looking at the 12z nam? It appears that it was starting to ampify late and look like it was going to hook NW, looking at the last panel......... Yeah it got se areas with the comma head. it was still a little too late, but better than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah it got se areas with the comma head. it was still a little too late, but better than 06z. Yeah, Thats what i thought, You could see the isobars buckling some back towards the NW.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 You said zero snow west of ORH Yeah true. Okay how about a bust is 1"+ west of a line from ORH-CON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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