12/19-12/20 threat

[dryslot]

I wouldn't be shocked if I have mixing issues, if indeed the storm goes pretty far west.

I think you would probably welcome it after the initial front end dump at this point, I know i would if it means getting snow here.......

[tavwtby]

I do not think Ray has any worries, you however, heavy heavy CT River valley downsloping

Just like last year?

[correnjim1]

I wouldn't be shocked if I have mixing issues, if indeed the storm goes pretty far west.

I swear I'll be on the Tobin lol.

[CT Rain]

Well ya but look at the Berks and the CT river Valley, can not have upslope in the Berks without downs slope, anyways NBD

Yeah but that snow isn't from just this storm.

[amarshall]

I wouldn't be shocked if I have mixing issues, if indeed the storm goes pretty far west.

I'll be jumping from the Neponset River bridge

[ChrisM]

it's going to be pretty disheartening and confusing at thist point if Dr. No keeps with his name.

My guess is it shows a hit though. Ryan, agree?

[Logan11]

It's unusual that the Euro hasn't joined the party yet. I'm wondering it it's tendency to mess up with energy in the southwest is inhibiting it from having enough of a southern stream reflection. I wouldn't be shocked it if does a very fast about face here at 12Z or 0Z and has a big hit for NE and ultimately maybe far ENY also.

Of course the GFS comes with it again, did you expect anything else ?

[Boston-winter08]

Wow, GEFS way west, as well

[CoastalWx]

I swear I'll be on the Tobin lol.

Well I think we'd be fine as of now. I looked at the soundings.

[40/70 Benchmark]

if the GGEM and UKIE come significantly west...the Euro will too and then we can type "as we thought"

I'm glad I refrained from melting down after the EURO last night; the fact that the EURO changed so markedly with respect to the N stream told me all I needed to know about that stability of that whiff scenario, though I would REALLY like to see the EURO display a hit in a bit over an hr.

[OSUmetstud]

[CoastalWx]

Wow, GEFS way west, as well

Yeah near and just east of the BM. Slow too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the EURO will look similar to the GFS....maybe more moderate.

[Baroclinic Zone]

[CoastalWx]

I'm glad I refrained from melting down after the EURO last night; the fact that the EURO changed so markedly with respect to the N stream told me all I needed to know about that stability of that whiff scenario, though I would REALLY like to see the EURO display a hit in a bit over an hr.

That vortmax coming from the Rockies completely energizes this. The models have been on and off with this. Now the GFS is on.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I'd be shocked if the Euro didn't come west given that the 12z Op GFS/ Ens., and GGEM came west.

[CT Rain]

I'm glad I refrained from melting down after the EURO last night; the fact that the EURO changed so markedly with respect to the N stream told me all I needed to know about that stability of that whiff scenario, though I would REALLY like to see the EURO display a hit in a bit over an hr.

If the Euro doesn't budge then I'll still be disappointed

[OKpowdah]

Sorry for beating the same drum, but once again, notable differences between the 00z and 12z GEFS which brings it closer to the Euro

[radarman]

LOL I was being dramatic. No downsloping in this setup... this is perfect for us with a N/NNW wind.

it's the screaming ENE retrograde storms that kill us.

Well, maybe a little downsloping, but on the whole it's a much better setup than normal for valley locations.

Love the soth'ly flow aloft too.

[gravitywave]

encouraging to see how well the GFS ensemble mean reflects the op run, too.... the computer liked this run - a lot

[MaineJayhawk]

If the Euro doesn't budge then I'll still be disappointed

Yes. Euro needs to make a move.

[OKpowdah]

I think we'll see the Euro be a little more robust with the energy in the trough, but still a later phase, ending up as a bomb south of Nova Scotia

[Baroclinic Zone]

A 989 Ens. Mean SLP at 120h just off ACK. Only a weenie can dream.

[Logan11]

I like the way that northern stream closed low is getting way back to the MB/ON border...... and the 50/50 low moves nicely off or gives way..... This is nothing like last year and will be a bigger hit in NE than the MA. . It could still be a little too far east for ALB, but we're still in the game especially the deformation as the low gets off Mass and ME.

That vortmax coming from the Rockies completely energizes this. The models have been on and off with this. Now the GFS is on.

[SouthCoastMA]

A 989 Ens. Mean SLP at 120h just off ACK. Only a weenie can dream.

Inside the benchmark? Or is it not discernible in the Ens. mean.

[sankaty]

Funny how we use the Euro to forecast the weather and the other models to forecast the Euro.

[CoastalWx]

Dr No will have a say within an hour or so. Lets hope it has that same vortmax developing a little earlier, than what it showed at 00z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That vortmax coming from the Rockies completely energizes this. The models have been on and off with this. Now the GFS is on.

Like I said last night, the strength of the SW is far, far more easily correctable than the evoloution of the PV, especially prior to the SWs arrival on the N American shore.

[SnowGoose69]

Dr No will have a say within an hour or so. Lets hope it has that same vortmax developing a little earlier, than what it showed at 00z.

I still believe the Euro is going to be very late to this party...may even go east again at 12Z.

[CoastalWx]

Inside the benchmark? Or is it not discernible in the Ens. mean.

It gets very near the BM, but from the 12 hr maps, it looks like it's just outside. It may move over the BM at some point, but I only see the 12hr panels.