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12/19-12/20 threat


CoastalWx

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Forgive if this has already been mentioned on this forum, and Not to throw a wet blanket on anybody's parade, but regarding the 12z runs, I read in the NYC forum a post that said:

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM. THE ECMWF AND GFS FLIPPED AS

TO THE MOST WESTWARD AND EASTWARD SOLUTIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM

SHORT WAVE WILL COME IN BETTER RAOB COVERAGE ON THE 12Z RUN. THE

ENFORCER THAT SET OFF THE NEGATIVE TILT TROF ON THE CURRENT ECMWF

THOUGH WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT INTO BETTER RAOB COVERAGE UNTIL

TONIGHT`S RUN.

Area Forecast DIscussion NWS Mt. Holly

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How bout Ptown for the first date? He can watch you chuck your weenie. And if he can't accept your weather illness you ned to dump him anyhow

Well, I've sort of explained it..but just enough as to not scare him away. If I go into the "chase" aspect this early, I'm not sure he'll stick around.

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This looks pretty good. Well west of 6Z extrap from DGEX and a good trend. I think if we went beyond 84 hours it would continue to curl up. qpf field extends much further west vs 6z.

Yeah, it could be better than I was thinking if I were to pull a Sam and extrapolate. I can see it arcing more northward. Not a bad way to start off the suite.

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This looks pretty good. Well west of 6Z extrap from DGEX and a good trend. I think if we went beyond 84 hours it would continue to curl up. qpf field extends much further west vs 6z.

Even with some of the ots solution on the models they all basically still hooked once they got up this way and still should as well here........

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Barry Burbank's weatherblog on wbz4.com

"Dumbfounded

Yes, that’s what I am this morning- dumbfounded. Why? Well, all week the most reliable forecast model had consistently projected the upcoming storm only sideswiping some light snow over Cape Cod with some ocean-effect snow showers over the rest of the coastal plain. Now, its latest output is a 180. Yes, it is advertising a significant nor’easter for Sunday night and Monday. Despite my faith in its superior physics and mathematics, this latest Euro model run could be an aberration so I am not pulling out the stops just yet. If the Euro releases similar solutions in the next 2-3 forecast cycles, my confidence would be restored. It may have already latched onto a plausible scenario based upon higher latitude blocking, a reconfiguration of the jet stream amidst phasing of imbedded parcels of energy. Undoubtedly, this pattern is favorable for bombogenesis. The trick is determining the location of the initial and mature stages. Earlier Euro runs depicted a monstrous storm offshore but it now has the beast tucked much closer to Cape Cod. This path would produce rain there and maybe a mix on the South Shore with more than a foot of snow and some sleet most other places! Simultaneously, the other mathematical models which were zigging and zagging all week are all sending the storm far out to sea. The reality is that there remains a high degree of uncertainty which, hopefully, will all be resolved in the next 36-48 hours. It will be mighty interesting to see how this is all going to shake out."

He even gave a shout out to Tolland CT, which is out of his viewing range

He did? What did he say? Anyone know

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