SnowMan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Blizz posted a good graphic on about page 61. Yep saw that, but I wasn't sure if Andy had anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 haha...haven't been able to log on all morning....driving me nuts. On my phone now. Im not sold at all yet. Hvy hvy caution. I still think scraper...but that's one awesome storm on the ec. Yeah I'm pretty cautious as well. Want to see what 12z does, but this would also be fitting for the gfs to lose the storm, and then the euro sweeps in and steals the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 They were very wrong yesterday. They're right today. No way should any met take the Euro with more than a grain of salt YET. Very little support from any other model runs, including its own. It would be careless of them not to throw out the 00z Euro, for now. +1 TOTALLY agree. I think the Euro blipped and will be back to its old story at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 +1 TOTALLY agree. I think the Euro blipped and will be back to its old story at 12z. That could be, but if Euro holds serve at 12z there's going to be some serious chuckin' going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 A big test will be the 12z GFS, which will have new data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 There are also some signs that the nao wants to go negative again, after it relaxes. The ensembles hint at some height rises out in the Davis Straits and Greenland, and also the CPC plumes look like they want to drop again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Lol, Rosenstein to the rescue..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 WOW!!!! i bailed afte panel 108 on the GFS last night. now i just saw the euro! i dont know whether to or Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 man, I cannot access from home, but work is no problem WTF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Lol, Rosenstein to the rescue..... If that hooks left, Yeah, But being outside the benchmark would be a scraper........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Ray is awake and on the board. Let's see if he gets one in the eye. This will be a difficult period of waiting for the next run... lot's to do, lot's to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 3 ensemble members of GFS at 6Z really clock us pretty good... On cell cause DNS blows.....its comn andF its major....largest event in?several yrs this is what i have been waitn for ovr the 4 yrs i have been the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The 12z nam still brings a norlun trough into downeast maine with that 1st wave............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Barry Burbank's weatherblog on wbz4.com "Dumbfounded Yes, that’s what I am this morning- dumbfounded. Why? Well, all week the most reliable forecast model had consistently projected the upcoming storm only sideswiping some light snow over Cape Cod with some ocean-effect snow showers over the rest of the coastal plain. Now, its latest output is a 180. Yes, it is advertising a significant nor’easter for Sunday night and Monday. Despite my faith in its superior physics and mathematics, this latest Euro model run could be an aberration so I am not pulling out the stops just yet. If the Euro releases similar solutions in the next 2-3 forecast cycles, my confidence would be restored. It may have already latched onto a plausible scenario based upon higher latitude blocking, a reconfiguration of the jet stream amidst phasing of imbedded parcels of energy. Undoubtedly, this pattern is favorable for bombogenesis. The trick is determining the location of the initial and mature stages. Earlier Euro runs depicted a monstrous storm offshore but it now has the beast tucked much closer to Cape Cod. This path would produce rain there and maybe a mix on the South Shore with more than a foot of snow and some sleet most other places! Simultaneously, the other mathematical models which were zigging and zagging all week are all sending the storm far out to sea. The reality is that there remains a high degree of uncertainty which, hopefully, will all be resolved in the next 36-48 hours. It will be mighty interesting to see how this is all going to shake out." He even gave a shout out to Tolland CT, which is out of his viewing range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Just saw the Euro... Can we hold on that or nudge it a slight bit west please? Wow...get off those chairs in eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Lol, Rosenstein to the rescue..... Is this hooking back into the GOM? How do you get the model diagnostic discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Through hr 45, the NAM looks better with the s/w across the south. Heights are a little higher over the southeast and that s/w over MT and WY looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What would explain the Euro moving/nudging/racing west? I understand the PV shifted west, but is it ingesting new/better data as this starts to come in off the Pac? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Is this hooking back into the GOM? How do you get the model diagnostic discussion? I was just comparing the 0Z Euro SLP placement valid 12Z Monday morning compared to what they have out....its close... Here's the model diagnostic disco link http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 [Cold Miser wakes up, checks out latest models, and tucks noose back under the mattress - for now.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What would explain the Euro moving/nudging/racing west? I understand the PV shifted west, but is it ingesting new/better data as this starts to come in off the Pac? I believe the s/w is stronger than it had currently thought, and maybe it won't get shredded so much allowing for more amplification? or it could have been a burp run and the only people seeing snow are fishermen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is a pretty interesting diagnostic discussion. Basically they are okay with the NAMs strong southern shortwave but they think the EC is pushing the retrograding too far west allowing for more nw ATL ridging and a closer to the coast solution. So the real issue to resolve might not be the sw shortwave, but instead the amount of retrogression in Ontario. SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM S. CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD... PREFERENCE: BEFORE 00Z SAT...3/4 GFS TO 1/4 NAM AFTER 00Z SAT...MOVE TOWARD THE GEFS MEAN THE NAM SHOWS GREATER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION CROSSING S. CALIFORNIA COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...AND WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED STRONGER...THEY REMAIN NOTICEABLY WEAKER CROSSING THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS APPEAR TO INITIALIZE REASONABLY WELL...AND THE TIME FRAME IN QUESTION WHICH IS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HRS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT THE STRONGER NAM WHICH COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO ITS HIGHER SPATIAL RESOLUTION. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHEAST...THE NAM IS STRONGEST WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW FORMING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WHICH THEN HELPS TO PIVOT THE PRIMARY LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE BY 84 HRS. THE NEW ECMWF...WHILE ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED ALOFT CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST ALSO FORMS A SECONDARY LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF...BUT IT IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND PROGRESSIVE...BUT STILL RESULTS IN A NEARLY IDENTICAL SURFACE LOW DEPICTION AT 84 HRS. HOWEVER...ITS SOLUTION APPEARS MORE ATTRIBUTED TO THE RETROGRADING CYCLONE CROSSING ONTARIO WHICH AIDS IN BUILDING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF'S CYCLONE'S POSITION CROSSING ONTARIO LIES NEAR THE FAST AND NORTHWEST EDGES OF AN INCREASINGLY LARGE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ITS SURFACE LOW POSITION NEAR THE NC/SC COAST AT 84 HRS IS ALSO IN QUESTION. THUS...RECOMMEND DISCOUNTING THE NAM/ECMWF SURFACE LOW EVOLUTION OFF THE SC/NC COAST AT 84 HRS AND USING AN INTERMEDIATE/CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THE EVENT NEARS AND THE ACCOMPANYING SOLUTION SPREAD DIMINISHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I believe the s/w is stronger than it had currently thought, and maybe it won't get shredded so much allowing for more amplification? or it could have been a burp run and the only people seeing snow are fishermen. This next run has the fate of our Universe hanging in the balance. Noose in one hand, weenie in the other... not sure what to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM appears on board. No DNS issues here vs home.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 The NAM is also taking the PV and moving it nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM is going to come in pretty damn good IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well, good luck guys. Unlike Ray with the haterade, I hope you guys get slammed. No point in hoping for a miss...and besides..its good for board ratings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well, good luck guys. Unlike Ray with the haterade, I hope you guys get slammed. No point in hoping for a miss...and besides..its good for board ratings! Keep your eyes open today or take a trip an hour south. Looks good there for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The NAM is also taking the PV and moving it nw. PV looks deeper but that 522 is much less elongated and doing less blocking.. this baby should come more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I think the NAM will be damned good but not as close in as the Euro based on PV movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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