Mad River Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Today's 12z suite is going to be huge. I really hope we can see the models reach some form of consensus either way. This waffling and back and forth is giving me a heart condition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Haven't been able to log on at home. Anybody else have this problem? Any suggestions? Log into your router/modem and manually select your DNS settings. Change your primary DNS setting to 8.8.8.8 and secondary DNS setting to 4.2.2.2 That should help you out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Taking EC at face value there will in all probability be a very sharp cut-off to the snow vs no snow and even in the snow area another sharp gradient between light vs heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ugghhhh HPC tossing the Euro Op REGARDING POTENTIAL IMPACTS...DUE TO THE BLOCKING PATTERN THE WEST WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY AT ALL DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODEL DETAILS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY...ESPECIALLY WITH THEIR QPF...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE WEST AROUND DAYS 5 AND 6 ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION. WILL INCORPORATE AS MUCH DETAIL INTO THE MANUAL PROGS FOR THESE DAYS...BUT WITH SUCH LARGE SOLUTION SPREAD...WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSE THE GEFS OR ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND INCREASE AMPLITUDE WHERE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CLUSTERS MOST. A SIMILAR APPROACH APPLIES IN THE EAST WHERE SOLUTION SPREAD IS ALSO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH MAKES ADDING MUCH DETAIL TO THE MANUAL PROGS A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITHOUT INTRODUCING POTENTIAL ERROR. THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED NOTICEABLY FARTHER WEST WITH A MAJOR WINTER STORM AFFECTING BOSTON BY DAYS 4/5. HOWEVER...WITH ITS NEARLY OUTLIER SOLUTION OVER ONTARIO/SASKATCHEWAN POTENTIALLY NEGATIVELY INFLUENCING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ITS SOLUTION IS CURRENTLY DISCARDED IN FAVOR OF THE GEFS AND/OR ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH ARE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I thought models are supposed to be getting more precise??? This is ridiculous and going to go down as one of the biggest head aches of any storm. I love the the fact that the Euro is in now, but I need another run of the Euro to verify and the GFS to come back. If those two happen, I am all in. When does the next Euro run come out? The NAM will be out in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocket Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 As you have already said, the 12z runs will see if this is a blip or will the rest of the globals correct westward. I think the answer lies somewhere int he middle and feel pretty confident, at least down by where I lie, for advisory level snows. Forgive my ignorance. I assume this is the Euro everyone talks about; am I right? Then, if I look at this with no knowledge of doing so it looks like, according to all that green, that we will get smacked with snow with this storm. Is this what this is saying? What is the 90 (dark green) representative of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Taking EC at face value there will in all probability be a very sharp cut-off to the snow vs no snow and even in the snow area another sharp gradient between light vs heavy. Can you eloborate on where these gradients set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ugghhhh HPC tossing the Euro Op REGARDING POTENTIAL IMPACTS...DUE TO THE BLOCKING PATTERN THE WEST WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY AT ALL DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODEL DETAILS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY...ESPECIALLY WITH THEIR QPF...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE WEST AROUND DAYS 5 AND 6 ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION. WILL INCORPORATE AS MUCH DETAIL INTO THE MANUAL PROGS FOR THESE DAYS...BUT WITH SUCH LARGE SOLUTION SPREAD...WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSE THE GEFS OR ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND INCREASE AMPLITUDE WHERE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CLUSTERS MOST. A SIMILAR APPROACH APPLIES IN THE EAST WHERE SOLUTION SPREAD IS ALSO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH MAKES ADDING MUCH DETAIL TO THE MANUAL PROGS A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITHOUT INTRODUCING POTENTIAL ERROR. THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED NOTICEABLY FARTHER WEST WITH A MAJOR WINTER STORM AFFECTING BOSTON BY DAYS 4/5. HOWEVER...WITH ITS NEARLY OUTLIER SOLUTION OVER ONTARIO/SASKATCHEWAN POTENTIALLY NEGATIVELY INFLUENCING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ITS SOLUTION IS CURRENTLY DISCARDED IN FAVOR OF THE GEFS AND/OR ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH ARE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. They were going for a snowstorm at 12z yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ugghhhh HPC tossing the Euro Op REGARDING POTENTIAL IMPACTS...DUE TO THE BLOCKING PATTERN THE WEST WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY AT ALL DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODEL DETAILS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY...ESPECIALLY WITH THEIR QPF...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE WEST AROUND DAYS 5 AND 6 ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION. WILL INCORPORATE AS MUCH DETAIL INTO THE MANUAL PROGS FOR THESE DAYS...BUT WITH SUCH LARGE SOLUTION SPREAD...WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSE THE GEFS OR ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND INCREASE AMPLITUDE WHERE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CLUSTERS MOST. A SIMILAR APPROACH APPLIES IN THE EAST WHERE SOLUTION SPREAD IS ALSO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH MAKES ADDING MUCH DETAIL TO THE MANUAL PROGS A MAJOR CHALLENGE WITHOUT INTRODUCING POTENTIAL ERROR. THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED NOTICEABLY FARTHER WEST WITH A MAJOR WINTER STORM AFFECTING BOSTON BY DAYS 4/5. HOWEVER...WITH ITS NEARLY OUTLIER SOLUTION OVER ONTARIO/SASKATCHEWAN POTENTIALLY NEGATIVELY INFLUENCING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ITS SOLUTION IS CURRENTLY DISCARDED IN FAVOR OF THE GEFS AND/OR ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH ARE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. Think c-o-n-t-i-n-u-i-t-y when reading anything from the HPC. They will never stray far from the previous discussion. Until there is further evidence to supports it's solution, it's a prudent way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I thought models are supposed to be getting more precise??? This is ridiculous and going to go down as one of the biggest head aches of any storm. I love the the fact that the Euro is in now, but I need another run of the Euro to verify and the GFS to come back. If those two happen, I am all in. When does the next Euro run come out? The NAM will be out in an hour or so. Around 1 PM. Be here, you won't want to miss it. And welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Forgive my ignorance. I assume this is the Euro everyone talks about; am I right? Then, if I look at this with no knowledge of doing so it looks like, according to all that green, that we will get smacked with snow with this storm. Is this what this is saying? What is the 90 (dark green) representative of? Dark Green in the lower panels indicates high relative humidity at different parts of the atmosphere (700 mb and 850 mb) in this case I believe. It doesn't necessarily indicate that an area is getting "smacked with snow" but usually indicates where precip might be or where dry slots might occur. Mets correct me if I'm wrong... I believe the precip maps that the models spit out are extrapolations from all this data regarding RH, Low placement, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Think c-o-n-t-i-n-u-i-t-y when reading anything from the HPC. They will never stray far from the previous discussion. Until there is further evidence to supports it's solution, it's a prudent way to go. You can bet after 12z if the euro has the same solution as 00z, There final extended discussion is going to look a lot differnt then there preliminary....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Can you eloborate on where these gradients set up? Not yet. Just basing this statement on pattern recognition of what the EC is forecasting. Let me add I said taking it at face value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 06z DGEX is a whif if anyone cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 They were going for a snowstorm at 12z yesterday... Did there zone of baroclinity shift??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Can't get on from home....booo. Droid2 FTW. hope the euro didn't just have a burp run. That was a shocking development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 06z DGEX is a whif if anyone cares Like it does with most storms......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 06z DGEX is a whif if anyone cares Well at least it gives me several inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Haven't been able to log on at home. Anybody else have this problem? Any suggestions? Close your browser. Open it. Enter the url by hand. Worked for me when I did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I gotta get to work...I'm so crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I am thinking for the sanity of a lot of people on this board, That the 12z runs today are probably the biggest runs of the winter so far for everyone............until the 00z tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Can't wait for Phil to log on today and get his thoughts He had totally bailed yesterday haha...haven't been able to log on all morning....driving me nuts. On my phone now. Im not sold at all yet. Hvy hvy caution. I still think scraper...but that's one awesome storm on the ec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I gotta get to work...I'm so crazy... I was worried about you last night after the GFS run....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 LOL!!! Just saw the Euro. That's the sickest humor ever hahaha. It has a decent fluke potential. The Euro does have a habit of having a fluke run with big storms around this time period. But that is just hilarious timing. Right after the GFS shifted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I am thinking for the sanity of a lot of people on this board, That the 12z runs today are probably the biggest runs of the winter so far for everyone............until the 00z tonight.... For me it all hinges on ECMWF. I do want to see other guidance trend to it, but that's not as critical as getting the Doc to stabilize and keep dropping the hammer on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ugghhhh HPC tossing the Euro Op Discarding the EC 4.5 days out. Classic--don't see that happen very often, eh? They also discarded the EC's OTS run from yesterday, too IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 3 ensemble members of GFS at 6Z really clock us pretty good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Can you eloborate on where these gradients set up? Blizz posted a good graphic on about page 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I am thinking for the sanity of a lot of people on this board, That the 12z runs today are probably the biggest runs of the winter so far for everyone............until the 00z tonight.... Could this be the year of the trend NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Discarding the EC 4.5 days out. Classic--don't see that happen very often, eh? They also discarded the EC's OTS run from yesterday, too IIRC. They were very wrong yesterday. They're right today. No way should any met take the Euro with more than a grain of salt YET. Very little support from any other model runs, including its own. It would be careless of them not to throw out the 00z Euro, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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