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12/19-12/20 threat


CoastalWx

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Anyone else having issues refreshing and getting error messages again and again until it works?

After the 00z GFS last night when everyone felt they got kicked in the nuts and drove like mad to get to home depot before they closed, What a nice turn of events, Euro is dumping anywhere from .50" to 2.25" over the NE......... :snowman::snowman::weight_lift:

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Wow...what a surprise...almost didn't want to watch the weather report so I didn't have to hear how this was going out to sea...but the 00z EURO did it! Amazing. Now off to take 2 finals, write a 10-page paper tomorrow (due Saturday) and a final Monday?

Good luck with that..........lol

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I'm expecting him to be a realist and put a serious damper on the enthusiasm for anyone west of ORH.

:whistle:

Well people still need to keep this in perspective. We are almost 4 days away, so lots could happen. If the gfs shifts west at 12z, and the euro doesn't go 200 miles east, then I would be happy.

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Well people still need to keep this in perspective. We are almost 4 days away, so lots could happen. If the gfs shifts west at 12z, and the euro doesn't go 200 miles east, then I would be happy.

True. I mean the Euro HAS from time to time had a run of nonsense only to come back the next one to say "Made you look...made you look..."

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Well people still need to keep this in perspective. We are almost 4 days away, so lots could happen. If the gfs shifts west at 12z, and the euro doesn't go 200 miles east, then I would be happy.

I would assume there wil be a fair amount of emotions flyinh around in the next 24 hrs..

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Dude stop taking so much credit for this....who honestly gives a crap what you've been saying for days? And it doesn't mean it's correct either, we're talking about one run of an operational when most of the runs haven't supported anything like this. Sure, it gives it more of a chance of happening but I don't see why you're being so self-congratulatory. Talk about arrogance.

"Bitter! Party of One!"

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True. I mean the Euro HAS from time to time had a run of nonsense only to come back the next one to say "Made you look...made you look..."

At the same time, you have to take it seriously considering we're entering it's lethal time range. I'm shocked at what happened. Never would have thought. If the NAM and GFS start to trend west, then I think we know where we're going here. The break in the PV just northeast of Nova Scotia really helped out. Now, we have some ridging there, which allows the s/w coming off the Carolinas to really go to town. Lets hope 12z is promising. I'll hold off my emotions until then.

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I almost fainted. LOL. I don't like all the jumping around, but we are also coming into the lethal range of the euro. I won't believe anything until 12z.

The sick thing is, is that I looked at the GFS first and though it was gam ova and then I peeked at the Euro and did a wtf, double-take, than I scrambled to try and get on here with the DNS issues and saw all the posts overnight and was shocked.

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The sick thing is, is that I looked at the GFS first and though it was gam ova and then I peeked at the Euro and did a wtf, double-take, than I scrambled to try and get on here with the DNS issues and saw all the posts overnight and was shocked.

I literally spit my cereal out. I even got up earlier to check the runs..lol. What a weenie. I really hope 12z doesn't turn to crap.

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The sick thing is, is that I looked at the GFS first and though it was gam ova and then I peeked at the Euro and did a wtf, double-take, than I scrambled to try and get on here with the DNS issues and saw all the posts overnight and was shocked.

BTW congrats on the good health news. :thumbsup:

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I literally spit my cereal out. I even got up earlier to check the runs..lol. What a weenie. I really hope 12z doesn't turn to crap.

:lmao:

I was dumbfounded to see the left hook. That's why I had to see what caused it to do that and I saw that it broke off a piece of that PV and retrograded it west. By doing that, it looks like it left a weakness in the heights in SE Canada allowing the trough to amplify. I think the other factor is this current overruning event that keeps creeping up stronger and stronger which anchored itself in the 50/50 area. You can see those 2 features in the 72 and 96h panels.

f72.gif

f96.gif

As you have already said, the 12z runs will see if this is a blip or will the rest of the globals correct westward. I think the answer lies somewhere int he middle and feel pretty confident, at least down by where I lie, for advisory level snows.

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I know I wasn't the only one last night who saw the 0z GFS and said to themselves..."Now watch the 0z Euro change tune and come west...just to mind f*** with us"...but I'm still pretty surprised to see it actually happen. :arrowhead:

That said...still think everyone needs to keep optimism in check until we see the 12z suite.

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