nzucker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 All I remember is hearing reports of +RN on the CT/NY border while 40 miles west received 30".. That was remarkable.. Just 5-10 miles east of here the storm was mostly rain during the day whereas I had already picked up nearly 10" snow....I guess the 350' elevation helped me a bit but still just a remarkable gradient and a very unusual system in a winter of powerful Nor'easters. I wouldn't mind a slightly farther east version of the Snowicane on this event to placate most of the SNE crew while we still get hammered with a good snowfall and take advantage of all the cold air we've been dealing with lately. The snow pack would probably last a while given that no run of any model has shown a real warm-up as move towards XMAS and the New Year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 FWIW, the 03z SREFs are absolutely putrid. Looks like a wide right miss. Though they are relatively useless at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 FWIW, the 03z SREFs are absolutely putrid. Looks like a wide right miss. Though they are relatively useless at this time range. Verbatim yeah putrid..but I thought 500mb showed promise didn't you? The SL forms well offshore but it likely would track nne from there and still miss but not be too far offshore. There was a lot of spread NW of the low too.. which I think would mean some members are tracking it there. Anyways not terribly important.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GooGoo Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 All I remember is hearing reports of +RN on the CT/NY border while 40 miles west received 30".. That was remarkable.. I remember driving in to work that night from Danbury to East Fishkill NY. I left my house at 11:30 pm with rain falling. Got to I-84 (1.5 miles from house) and first flakes were mixing in. Just one more mile driving west, no kidding, not only was it snowing heavily, there was already 3 inches of snow on ground, highway covered. The eastward progress of cold air had to be moving about 10 feet per hour. Needless to say, by the time I got to work, there was 13 inches on ground, snowing heavily with a final tally of 21 inches in East Fishkill, Danbury total was 5 inches and rain in Northern New England. A once in a lifetime "upside-down" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 At any rate....off to bed....that was a good save by the Euro for the 00z suite....first time its showed a monster hit for most of SNE. We'll hope it wasn't a burp run. It obviously had some big changed with the amplification of the eastern heights as it went through that run. Lets hope it stays the same or even better at 12z tomorrow...if it does, we'll be about at "bulls eye range" for the Euro...the fact that it went so favorable at this time period is significant to me right now. But I'm very weary of a "burp" run...because the Euro can do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 BTW, the Euro ensembles went like 150 miles NW...still well E of the BM, but they def came back west, and have a huge bulge in the isobars for the sfc reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 BTW, the Euro ensembles went like 150 miles NW...still well E of the BM, but they def came back west, and have a huge bulge in the isobars for the sfc reflection. Any qpf for ENE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Any qpf for ENE? I can't see qpf probs like Scott does on WSI. The access I have doesn't allow that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Probably, but I always have that never say die attitude about snow. If the forecast is for flurries and I manage a few inches I'll be thrilled. I have mainly been watching the LES snow event unfold tonight. Rare LES Advisory up for this zone. I think you are done personally...I'll be happy to see a few inches here. The 00z Euro was great, but I'm skeptical is comes that far west. But we'll see. I'd love to grab warning criteria snow out of it. But if you held a gun to my head, I'd much rather be in BOS than my location...nevermind out in the helderburgs where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM getting the PV out of the way much faster on the 06z... not surprising.. more in line with the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I see you lurking Will.. you gotta stay up for the 6z to finish it looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 does the nam look like convective feedback to you guys at hr 78? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 does the nam look like convective feedback to you guys at hr 78? it looks a little weird to me yeah.. i would think the surface low would be farther N based on 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It's trying to reform it farther north it looks like at 84. Not as far north as I expected it to be but I like 500mb. 500mb is well nw of 18z. The vort will probably track right over sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 the whole low placement looks odd to me, looks like feedback issues at 84 to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It's probably gonna slam NE though post 84 hours.... the whole low placement looks odd to me, looks like feedback issues at 84 to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well I guess its time to simmer down from the 00z Euro bombshell....that was quite a run. And skier...you and Socks need to stop getting into monster arguments in these threads...but I'm sure he is a little pissed that you in Lyme CT has a much better advantage over the snow mecca of Dobbs Ferry. Longitude is likely to win in this system....we could all still whiff easily....but Cape Cod is a place we might like to be right now. I'd pick Boston over my BY right now. Who is socks? Is that your nickname for Nate? Lol They do kind of argue like best friends sometimes do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 BTW, the Euro ensembles went like 150 miles NW...still well E of the BM, but they def came back west, and have a huge bulge in the isobars for the sfc reflection. 150 miles northwest of the OP? Interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 150 miles northwest of the OP? Interesting! Here is the means of the ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 LOL, Will texted me about 00z and I almost put my head through the wall, until I saw the part about the euro. I almost woke up my wife with a yell. EC ensembles like Will said, came west too. Lets hope 06z runs are ok. 06z NAM would be a late hooker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 06z gfs is probably going to still be pretty far ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 w t f These models are ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like Walt Drag wrote this for the Philly areas long term AFD.... NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM. THE ECMWF AND GFS FLIPPED AS TO THE MOST WESTWARD AND EASTWARD SOLUTIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL COME IN BETTER RAOB COVERAGE ON THE 12Z RUN. THE ENFORCER THAT SET OFF THE NEGATIVE TILT TROF ON THE CURRENT ECMWF THOUGH WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT INTO BETTER RAOB COVERAGE UNTIL TONIGHT`S RUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 SUN AND MON...UNFORTUNATELY MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY REMAINS POOR HOWEVER THERE IS A BIT MORE CLUSTERING OF AN OFFSHORE TRACK PER THE 00Z GFS/GEFS/UKMET AND CANADIAN GGEM. ALTHOUGH THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS MADE A LARGE CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH NOW A 974 MB LOW ABOUT 50 MILES ESE OF NANTUCKET 12Z MON! THE ECMWF THEN HAS THIS LOW BECOMING OCCLUDED AND VERTICALLY STACKED OVER CAPE COD LATER MON/MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. AS YOU CAN IMAGINE THE ECMWF GENERATES HEAVY PRECIP WITH OVER 2 INCHES OF LIQUID QPF ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA DURING THIS TIME. THUS POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM /POTENTIAL PTYPE ISSUES CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS/ ALONG WITH VERY STRONG WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN OFFSHORE TRACK WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE REGION. THUS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE /3.5-4 DAYS AWAY/ AND THE LARGE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS...THINK ITS PRUDENT TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR ONE OF THREE SCENARIOS...1)AN OFFSHORE TRACK PER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS...2)THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION...3)AND SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND MODEL CONSENSUS. DON/T WANT TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE 00Z ECMWF GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR VERIFICATION AND THE FACT THAT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS GIVEN RETROGRADING UPPER AIR PATTEN SUPPORTING A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION THE MORE AMPLIFIED SCENARIO BY THE ECMWF IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW ENCOUNTER AN UNSTABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASED BAROCLINICITY FROM THE CURRENT STRONG COLD ADVECTION FLOW OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS. NEVERTHELESS WILL JUST HAVE TO BE PATIENT AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO BEGIN CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION BEFORE WE CAN PROVIDE SPECIFICS REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 AS WE THOUGHT!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 LOL, Will texted me about 00z and I almost put my head through the wall, until I saw the part about the euro. I almost woke up my wife with a yell. EC ensembles like Will said, came west too. Lets hope 06z runs are ok. 06z NAM would be a late hooker. LOL he texted me at 2:45 AM..Heavy heavy snow is now locked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 w t f These models are ridiculous. My thoughts exactly after having read the overnight conversation. GFS bails on us, Euro kicks in the door. I put no stock in the GFS, and with the Euro making a sudden jump westward I can't give that any viability yet either. Just no consistency with any model now. I'll keep my original thought of scraper for this event, though if the Euro can give three consecutive consistent runs I'd ride that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 When the Euro makes a huge jump one way or the other it always sets the trend....That's a DT rule..tried and true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 When the Euro makes a huge jump one way or the other it always sets the trend....That's a DT rule..tried and true My only concern is that the euro op is now the western outlier. I agree with Will in that I think it will be hard for this to come much farther west. In fact, it may tick east at 12z. It was also encouraging to see the ensembles further west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 My only concern is that the euro op is now the western outlier. I agree with Will in that I think it will be hard for this to come much farther west. In fact, it may tick east at 12z. It was also encouraging to see the ensembles further west as well. It looks like it was generated by the PV retrograding west. 06z GFS came back a little west compared to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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