nzucker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 He always says double or triple what he really has . Huh? Almost all my measurements have jived exactly with the co-ops around me historically, except for the occasional marginal event where I get more due to being at 350' elevation. And I'm just relaying exactly what Tombo told me his QPF maps show, and knowing we'd do well on ratios with the track and cold airmass. Give it a break man, shut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Tombo says .5-.75" QPF for Westchester on his pay maps. Sounds good to me for 6-10" since ratios are going to be good with this cold airmass in place. What are you seeing? I'll send you the WSI maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 So pumped up, can't go to bed. I'm the biggest weenie in the world tonight. Too bad the next run isn't for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Huh? Almost all my measurements have jived exactly with the co-ops around me historically, except for the occasional marginal event where I get more due to being at 350' elevation. And I'm just relaying exactly what Tombo told me his QPF maps show, and knowing we'd do well on ratios with the track and cold airmass. Give it a break man, shut it. I was making a dirty joke i guess it flew over your head, i was not doubting your real snow measurements . Sorry if you took it the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'll send you the WSI maps. According to Tombo, that includes light snow/snow showers that falls out to 162 from the ULL. Knowing that we downslope some, I might revise to a 4-8" snowfall for here but still looks decent with the low stalling over Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 According to Tombo, that includes light snow/snow showers that falls out to 162 from the ULL. Knowing that we downslope some, I might revise to a 4-8" snowfall for here but still looks decent with the low stalling over Boston. It looked like it was in Mass Bay not Boston FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I guess you can't put them in the corner anymore huh... LOL How much I torture them will depend on what the 12z ECM shows? If it's bad, the rack is coming out and will be placed directly in front of the blackboard...time for a little "stretching" as our wonderful PE teachers would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Good night guys, here's to 6z trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Reminds me of last storm where the Euro was leading the way the whole time and then one run about 100 hrs out it totally flip flops... Only to come back at 12z.. I still like a hit for SNE but this run wreaks of BS but I hope to god its not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well I guess its time to simmer down from the 00z Euro bombshell....that was quite a run. And skier...you and Socks need to stop getting into monster arguments in these threads...but I'm sure he is a little pissed that you in Lyme CT has a much better advantage over the snow mecca of Dobbs Ferry. Longitude is likely to win in this system....we could all still whiff easily....but Cape Cod is a place we might like to be right now. I'd pick Boston over my BY right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looking better for you Easterners. Not sure if it gets back to ENY, but a low just off Chatham does generally get deformation back this far historically. Great night here tonight with continuous LES bands ..over 2.5" so far and moderate + snow now. 14.8F. Very true.. At this point I dont think it matters cause we have 3 days or so for a slight westward adjustment which I think we all would say is likely.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Very true.. At this point I dont think it matters cause we have 3 days or so for a slight westward adjustment which I think we all would say is likely.. I forsee an 18z gfs track more then the 0z euro or any further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm moving from Hamden back to Fairfield over the weekend for winter break. Sadly I feel like that might make a really big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I forsee an 18z gfs track more then the 0z euro or any further inland. I have a hard time seeing this trend much eastward...its gonna be hard with the northern stream like it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 And skier...you and Socks need to stop getting into monster arguments in these threads...but I'm sure he is a little pissed that you in Lyme CT has a much better advantage over the snow mecca of Dobbs Ferry. Sorry for the distraction, Will, we are best friends in real life but find each other a little unbearable in these forums. Skier was actually the one originally saying I was better off due to the changeover threat...not sure if he still fully believes that but he did say right before the ECM he still thought it could change NYC over to rain and go more towards the idea of a Hudson Valley runner. If the trend is really west, I don't see why the storm can't hook earlier and do more of a retrograde; I have to say though, when I saw the MSLP map for the ECM at 72 hrs, it looked like it was going OTS, very long curve back towards Boston Harbor but impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I have a hard time seeing this trend much eastward...its gonna be hard with the northern stream like it is. If the northern stream does verify as the ECMWF has it..there is a decent amount of room for some bumps westward if you ask me. But we have seen the modeling of the N stream today so far...disgusting inconsistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I have a hard time seeing this trend much eastward...its gonna be hard with the northern stream like it is. When you say eastward what solution are we using as an example? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Sorry for the distraction, Will, we are best friends in real life but find each other a little unbearable in these forums. Skier was actually the one originally saying I was better off due to the changeover threat...not sure if he still fully believes that but he did say right before the ECM he still thought it could change NYC over to rain and go more towards the idea of a Hudson Valley runner. If the trend is really west, I don't see why the storm can't hook earlier and do more of a retrograde; I have to say though, when I saw the MSLP map for the ECM at 72 hrs, it looked like it was going OTS, very long curve back towards Boston Harbor but impressive. The storm can def still trend west...but its going to be hard ot get it a bunch further west....even a track over CC Bay like the 00z Euro will keep BOS all snow because of how it gets there...its going N to NNW which keeps the sfc winds from the land trajectory. Its going to be almost impossible at this point to get the low to track far enough west to change anyone outside of the immediate eastern coast of SNE to rain. Euro is pretty far west right now amongst guidance and is the outlier at the moment with maybe the 00z NAM. But that doesn't mean it isn't right...the Euro is so often right inside of 96h when other models dont agree with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If the northern stream does verify as the ECMWF has it..there is a decent amount of room for some bumps westward if you ask me. But we have seen the modeling of the N stream today so far...disgusting inconsistency. Snowicane part II ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah I don't think anybody besides extreme ENE has a chance for rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Snowicane part II ?? No way...but let's put it this way, if the capture occurs an hour or two faster this run, everything bumps west 50+ miles. I don't think there's any changeover problems except for the immediate cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If the northern stream does verify as the ECMWF has it..there is a decent amount of room for some bumps westward if you ask me. But we have seen the modeling of the N stream today so far...disgusting inconsistency. I think this maybe can move about 50 miles west at the most...its going to be hard to get it to move far west beyond that. We'd need to see a whole change in the longwave pattern which is unlikely inside of 96 hours. I think the Cape and perhaps in the extreme case, even Boston could potentially change to rain on future runs, but that is about as much as I can see. I would still love to be on BOS at the moment vs my location in ORH if you held a gun to my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 No way...but let's put it this way, if the capture occurs an hour or two faster this run, everything bumps west 50+ miles. I don't think there's any changeover problems except for the immediate cape. I was just trying to rile up a few here in NE.. I know how touchy that subject can get in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I was just trying to rile up a few here in NE.. I know how touchy that subject can get in here Fine with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I was just trying to rile up a few here in NE.. I know how touchy that subject can get in here Sorry, your snowicane fetish will have to relived in the archives of eastern that is currently not available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Fine with me All I remember is hearing reports of +RN on the CT/NY border while 40 miles west received 30".. That was remarkable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Maybe more of a situation where BOS would get a dump of snow and then drizzle and dry slot as the wound up low retros to overhead them... That's when we could get some love out here. I think this maybe can move about 50 miles west at the most...its going to be hard to get it to move far west beyond that. We'd need to see a whole change in the longwave pattern which is unlikely inside of 96 hours. I think the Cape and perhaps in the extreme case, even Boston could potentially change to rain on future runs, but that is about as much as I can see. I would still love to be on BOS at the moment vs my location in ORH if you held a gun to my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Sorry, your snowicane fetish will have to relived in the archives of eastern that is currently not available. Fond memories of that storm. Probably a once in a lifetime synoptically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Heh they got 100% rain from event #2 in Albany while it was 98% snow here and all snow down in your area. One of the most bizarre events for sure...... All I remember is hearing reports of +RN on the CT/NY border while 40 miles west received 30".. That was remarkable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Maybe more of a situation where BOS would get a dump of snow and then drizzle and dry slot as the wound up low retros to overhead them... That's when we could get some love out here. I think you are done personally...I'll be happy to see a few inches here. The 00z Euro was great, but I'm skeptical is comes that far west. But we'll see. I'd love to grab warning criteria snow out of it. But if you held a gun to my head, I'd much rather be in BOS than my location...nevermind out in the helderburgs where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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