12/19-12/20 threat

[ice1972]

Good God.....I was all ready to shut it down after the 0z GFS diarrhea knowing I wouldn't get any sleep over it but then I had to drop the kids off at the pool and came back to this......I mean what a ride............still won't get any sleep.....man...how does it look for HFD? Too far west?

And why am I having to refresh eight times before it actually refreshes.......

[TalcottWx]

Jesus, zuck. Relax a bit. Making a big f'in deal about something in what should be a pretty happy time right now.

I am going to cheerlead a bit here, proud of myself not letting emotions getting the better of me, stuck on with the system and its going to pay off.

[Sn0waddict]

Last I checked NYC was at .5 qpf and coastal Jersey at .75 qpf with long island around 1.5-- you should be fine. It has room to trend even more.

Of course, I just was worried it was a replica of the 12z DGEX type solution.

[skierinvermont]

I think this qualifies as eating crow. Even if it does trend back east (which I don't think it will very much) one of the solutions will fail.

[TalcottWx]

God, I want to text ray so bad right now but I don't have his #. He's going to love this. If the storm happens I can't wait to see him be happier.

[mattb65]

Gfs is going to end up on an island, Watch all the other models come west as it goes east............

Not quite but Dr. No changes his mind just when the GFS wavered so we can't truly say that the GFS wins...

Still feeling like this is in the 60/40 range on whether or not it'll happen but it's so encouraging to finally have the euro show what might happen with it's upper level setup and basically any tiny bit of southern energy to latch onto.

[dendrite]

I think this qualifies as eating crow.

The snow isn't falling yet, but yeah, jumping this far westward at this stage is a chink in the armor.

[weatherwiz]

God, I want to tap ray so hard right now but I don't have it up. He would really love this. I can't wait to see him be happy.

Meanwhile this probably increases the chances of ESNE at least getting some sort of impact.

[dendrite]

God, I want to text ray so bad right now but I don't have his #. He's going to love this. If the storm happens I can't wait to see him be happier.

Kev will be awake in 3 hours after 8 hours of beauty sleep to lock it in.

[friendwh]

it's late, so **** it - QPF for the CT river valley?

[Patfan1987]

Get off the chairs and remove the rope people

[weatherwiz]

Get off the chairs and remove the rope people

If anyone was looking at the model while on the chair with the rope around their neck they may have accidentally kicked the chair out due to pure excitement.

[nzucker]

It's called consistency.. I don't care what the ecm shows run to run. It's showed a pretty favorable 500mb pattern it just had absolutely no s/w. I am confident there will be a s/w and in this pattern it will amplify.

It's not any consistency...all the models were trending away from a favorable southern stream until the 0z ECM came in more amplified. The 18z GFS and 0z GFS had actually trended away from the storm and more towards what the ECM showed earlier, which was the weaker shortwave not being able to amplify enough in a more zonal flow....even the 0z NAM looked further east than the 18z NAM if you extrapolate it out significantly. So I'm still not convinced...I've always had some problems with this storm and to say a model is "locked in" at 96-100 hrs just because one run is better after five off-shore runs in a row seems ridiculous. Now the models are reversed with the GFS being a miss and the ECM being a hit, although the GFS ENS were further west which is a warning flag in some cases. I don't think this is a high-confidence forecast at all, and I just took objection to you congratulating yourself based on one model run. When the snow starts falling outside my window, then I'll say you made a good call.

I think this qualifies as eating crow. Even if it does trend back east (which I don't think it will very much) one of the solutions will fail.

The ECM tends to have a "burp" run once in a while, I'm wondering if this is such a run. It usually locks into a solution run-to-run 90% of the runs but then one run deviates from the norm. We'll see if this is the beginning of a trend towards a better southern stream and more amplification with the PV phase or just a bunch of hocus-pocus. But the ECM isn't perfect either unfortunately, just well better than the other garbage models.

[skierinvermont]

It's not any consistency...all the models were trending away from a favorable southern stream until the 0z ECM came in more amplified. The 18z GFS and 0z GFS had actually trended away from the storm and more towards what the ECM showed earlier, which was the weaker shortwave not being able to amplify enough in a more zonal flow....even the 0z NAM looked further east than the 18z NAM if you extrapolate it out significantly. So I'm still not convinced...I've always had some problems with this storm and to say a model is "locked in" at 96-100 hrs just because one run is better after five off-shore runs in a row seems ridiculous. Now the models are reversed with the GFS being a miss and the ECM being a hit, although the GFS ENS were further west which is a warning flag in some cases. I don't think this is a high-confidence forecast at all, and I just took objection to you congratulating yourself based on one model run. When the snow starts falling outside my window, then I'll say you made a good call.

The ECM tends to have a "burp" run once in a while, I'm wondering if this is such a run. It usually locks into a solution run-to-run 90% of the runs but then one run deviates from the norm. We'll see if this is the beginning of a trend towards a better southern stream and more amplification with the PV phase or just a bunch of hocus-pocus. But the ECM isn't perfect either unfortunately, just well better than the other garbage models.

Dude I'm not congratulating myself.. I'm just saying this is what I thought and still think will happen.. a substantial storm for SNE. I'm just pumped that this is what the ECM is finally showing

What was a 'burp' was the 00z GFS.. it is way east of the ensemble mean and ensemble mean is usually too far east.

Also the 00z NAM would not be east of the 18z NAM. The 00z NAM would be a big hit for ESNE just very similar to the 18z NAM.

The ecm didn't come in with a stronger CA s/w than the other models. It just came in with slightly more of a CA s/w than the 12z ECM, but basically identical to the 00z GFS and much flatter than the 12z GFS.

All I can say is I have seen flips like this happen many times before and I highly doubt it goes back to its old solution. My forecast isn't based on any of the individual model deterministic solutions.. it's based on what I think the overall 500mb pattern will be and the strength of the s/w. LOCK IT UP.

[Patfan1987]

If anyone was looking at the model while on the chair with the rope around their neck they may have accidentally kicked the chair out due to pure excitement.

very good point.

[TalcottWx]

I was watching this as the EURO came out...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qepJ5sf2y-I&feature=related

You can thank me for bringing the magic

[dendrite]

When the snow starts falling outside my window, then I'll say you made a good call.

Dude I'm not congratulating myself.

Guys....get a room and some wine coolers. Nobody cares.

[Logan11]

Looking better for you Easterners. Not sure if it gets back to ENY, but a low just off Chatham does generally get deformation back this far historically.

Great night here tonight with continuous LES bands ..over 2.5" so far and moderate + snow now. 14.8F.

It's not any consistency...all the models were trending away from a favorable southern stream until the 0z ECM came in more amplified. The 18z GFS and 0z GFS had actually trended away from the storm and more towards what the ECM showed earlier, which was the weaker shortwave not being able to amplify enough in a more zonal flow....even the 0z NAM looked further east than the 18z NAM if you extrapolate it out significantly. So I'm still not convinced...I've always had some problems with this storm and to say a model is "locked in" at 96-100 hrs just because one run is better after five off-shore runs in a row seems ridiculous. Now the models are reversed with the GFS being a miss and the ECM being a hit, although the GFS ENS were further west which is a warning flag in some cases. I don't think this is a high-confidence forecast at all, and I just took objection to you congratulating yourself based on one model run. When the snow starts falling outside my window, then I'll say you made a good call.

The ECM tends to have a "burp" run once in a while, I'm wondering if this is such a run. It usually locks into a solution run-to-run 90% of the runs but then one run deviates from the norm. We'll see if this is the beginning of a trend towards a better southern stream and more amplification with the PV phase or just a bunch of hocus-pocus. But the ECM isn't perfect either unfortunately, just well better than the other garbage models.

[TalcottWx]

Guys....get a room and some wine coolers. Nobody cares.

[nzucker]

Guys....get a room and some wine coolers. Nobody cares.

We used to have a room....I wanted to kick the kid out the window for god's sake. Been there, done that back in college.

[A-L-E-X]

Guys....get a room and some wine coolers. Nobody cares.

Reading those posts you wouldnt know theyre like best friends lol.

[skierinvermont]

Guys....get a room and some wine coolers. Nobody cares.

couldn't agree more... this is the best run of the year

[dendrite]

Looks like ~1.75" QPF for the S coast of ME this run.

[nzucker]

couldn't agree more... this is the best run of the year

6-10" for me, wow, can't believe I get that much but it is the truth....

Too bad it's just an image on a computer screen.

Guess I have to wait up for the 6z NAM now even though I have to sub tomorrow morning at 7:45.

[A-L-E-X]

6-10" for me, wow, can't believe I get that much but it is the truth....

Too bad it's just an image on a computer screen.

Guess I have to wait up for the 6z NAM now even though I have to sub tomorrow morning at 7:45.

Yes, and be nice to those kids tomorrow lol.

[ORH_wxman]

6-10" for me, wow, can't believe I get that much but it is the truth....

Too bad it's just an image on a computer screen.

Guess I have to wait up for the 6z NAM now even though I have to sub tomorrow morning at 7:45.

You dont get even close to that much. Maybe 2-3 inches..

[nzucker]

Yes, and be nice to those kids tomorrow lol.

How much I torture them will depend on what the 12z ECM shows? If it's bad, the rack is coming out and will be placed directly in front of the blackboard...time for a little "stretching" as our wonderful PE teachers would say.

[ravensrule]

You dont get even close to that much. Maybe 2-3 inches..

He always says double or triple what he really has .

[nzucker]

You dont get even close to that much. Maybe 2-3 inches..

Tombo says .5-.75" QPF for Westchester on his pay maps. Sounds good to me for 6-10" since ratios are going to be good with this cold airmass in place. What are you seeing?

[GooGoo]

Don't post very much but I agree with A-L-E-X. Flip flopping in the models is to be expected until the southern stream wave reaches the west coast and can get sampled. I think we will see much more consistent model runs once this happens (maybe as early as the 12 z run today but certainly the 00z Fri run).