nzucker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It's going to get all of SNE at least to ORH I've been ****** saying this for days It gets NYC too with light to moderate precip....probably a 3-6" type of event here. Doesn't mean it's right but an interesting trend for sure. You can't verify a forecast however, Andrew, until we see the final result. Just one ECM run out of the past six showing a hit doesn't mean that much, although it's somewhat encouraging to those that believe this storm may happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 We get ROCKED I am sure... WARNING criteria for much of SNE.. been saying it for days still a swing and a miss over here mostly.. i also consider anything under a foot a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 MONSTER hit for eastern New England...even central NE gets crushed...ORH down to where skier is in S CT gets at least warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 HUGE hit for eastern New England...BOS getting crushed at 102h Well you are right more than I was. I thought it was dead with no southern stream and a weaker Pacific NW anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 We get ROCKED I am sure... WARNING criteria for much of SNE.. been saying it for days are you kidding me!!!!????? wowww! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 MONSTER hit for eastern New England...even central NE gets crushed...ORH down to where skier is in S CT gets at least warning criteria. I am almost sobbing here .. the tension is all being released now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 We get ROCKED I am sure... WARNING criteria for much of SNE.. been saying it for days Dude stop taking so much credit for this....who honestly gives a crap what you've been saying for days? And it doesn't mean it's correct either, we're talking about one run of an operational when most of the runs haven't supported anything like this. Sure, it gives it more of a chance of happening but I don't see why you're being so self-congratulatory. Talk about arrogance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It gets NYC too with light to moderate precip....probably a 3-6" type of event here. Doesn't mean it's right but an interesting trend for sure. You can't verify a forecast however, Andrew, until we see the final result. Just one ECM run out of the past six showing a hit doesn't mean that much, although it's somewhat encouraging to those that believe this storm may happen. It's the ECM at 96.. LOCK it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I am almost sobbing here .. the tension is all being released now What a stunning turn...Euro does it with weak energy....it retrograded the northern stream very nicely...it def had a stronger southern stream this time too...I think the combo saved us....what a storm this would be for the eastern 2/3rds of New England if that played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What a stunning turn...Euro does it with weak energy....it retrograded the northern stream very nicely...it def had a stronger southern stream this time too...I think the combo saved us....what a storm this would be for the eastern 2/3rds of New England if that played out. u have QPF data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 975mb about 40 miles east of CHH. Monster hit for eastern 2/3rds of NE...12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 anyone wanna paint a depiction of the total qpf of the euro? im gettin a little antsy in the pantsy hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Dude stop taking so much credit for this....who honestly gives a crap what you've been saying for days? And it doesn't mean it's correct either, we're talking about one run of an operational when most of the runs haven't supported anything like this. Sure, it gives it more of a chance of happening but I don't see why you're being so self-congratulatory. Talk about arrogance. chill out dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It's the ECM at 96.. LOCK it up What a joke...it moved like 500 miles from its last run, but of course it's a lock because you forecasted it. I'm honestly disgusted with all your cheerleading, you're way worse than I am and yet you always bash me for trying to hype my forecasts. Let's see where this goes the next couple of runs, even the mighty ECM is having problems and so is GFS etc. Just a very complicated storm to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Holy crap This run would make up for a lot of sins committed last winter to the snow belts of eastern New England (like where Ray is) and into E NH/S ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What a joke...it moved like 500 miles from its last run, but of course it's a lock because you forecasted it. I'm honestly disgusted with all your cheerleading, you're way worse than I am and yet you always bash me for trying to hype my forecasts. Let's see where this goes the next couple of runs, even the mighty ECM is having problems and so is GFS etc. Just a very complicated storm to forecast. It's called consistency.. I don't care what the ecm shows run to run. It's showed a pretty favorable 500mb pattern it just had absolutely no s/w. I am confident there will be a s/w and in this pattern it will amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm mostly a lurker on here, so maybe I am wrong or missing something, but if this were to verify, wouldn't the center of the low pass pretty close, possibly causing p-type issues, even for a bit, keeping the totals down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 How does it look for N. CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What a joke...it moved like 500 miles from its last run, but of course it's a lock because you forecasted it. I'm honestly disgusted with all your cheerleading, you're way worse than I am and yet you always bash me for trying to hype my forecasts. Let's see where this goes the next couple of runs, even the mighty ECM is having problems and so is GFS etc. Just a very complicated storm to forecast. Its definitely a very complicated storm to forecast...but its a big jump and it matters a lot...its agrees with the NAM decently. Euro is getting into its bulls eye throwing range, so it definitely matters when it jumps like this. I am still very cautious with this storm, but you cannot play this off as just a weird random run yet. It might be...but its significant at this point right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This throws a wrench into the machine for the mets who jumped ship on the 11pm broadcasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Holy crap I was actually going to make a joke earlier about how funny it would be if ECM actually developed a low after 5 runs of nothing and the GFS trending away from its earlier solutions. This is almost comical. I definitely did not expect this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Its definitely a very complicated storm to forecast...but its a big jump and it matters a lot...its agrees with the NAM decently. Euro is getting into its bulls eye throwing range, so it definitely matters when it jumps like this. I am still very cautious with this storm, but you cannot play this off as just a weird random run yet. It might be...but its significant at this point right now. Yeah this is not the typical flipping around type move.. it is coming into agreement with other models. What it shows makes a lot more sense than the completely flat solutions it had earlier. There is a lot of support for their being at least a decent s/w.. and in this 500mb pattern it will amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What a stunning turn...Euro does it with weak energy....it retrograded the northern stream very nicely...it def had a stronger southern stream this time too...I think the combo saved us....what a storm this would be for the eastern 2/3rds of New England if that played out. Will, it was ridiculous how people were jumping ship earlier when the sw hadnt even reached the well sampled area yet. And still hasnt. This has room to trend even more. I think our local mets handled it really well when they said there were equal chances of a direct hit, near miss and completely out to sea. People just have trouble handling uncertainty and need absolutes-- when there are no such thing as absolutes. This might keep trending right through tomorrow night-- by which time we should have a much better idea of whats going to happen. Let's get that southern storm out of the way and the sw into the better sampled area first though lol. The way it looks like right now, most of can get WSW criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Sorry, I hate to ask this question, but what does it look like for western CT? Is it a "just miss" which i have been worried about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Unbelievable! So, now, the Euro has swapped with the GFS. Who'd of thunk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What a joke...it moved like 500 miles from its last run, but of course it's a lock because you forecasted it. I'm honestly disgusted with all your cheerleading, you're way worse than I am and yet you always bash me for trying to hype my forecasts. Let's see where this goes the next couple of runs, even the mighty ECM is having problems and so is GFS etc. Just a very complicated storm to forecast. lol Ive never noticed you pissed off like this. No one should have made any decisions based on any model this far out. Not even the EURO. Like I said in the other forum, its guidance not gospel. And piss poor guidance outside of 48 hours at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This could be very interesting to watch tomorrow...seeing the euro trend towards a NAM solution can be a very good thing. If this stays true with tomorrow's 12z runs then perhaps we are onto something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I can't upload for some reason (thought that was fixed), but here's the d4 H7 RH and H85 temps before the image dies. Gotta be snowing like a mofo in ENE under the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Sorry, I hate to ask this question, but what does it look like for western CT? Is it a "just miss" which i have been worried about? Last I checked NYC was at .75 qpf and coastal Jersey and western long island around 1.00-1.25 qpf with eastern long island around 1.50-2.00-- you should be fine. It has room to trend even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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