12/19-12/20 threat

[CT Rain]

Poor KGAY and Scooter. From a whiff east to mixing issues.

[ChrisM]

my prediction; 2 for 6

what's going on Debbie?

My prediction is it comes west and you rip +RN

[dryslot]

Always just do not pi ss into the wind, Dude that's an Epic run right there, man if only fantasy was reality, you would have three men with you tonight.

If only.....

[OKpowdah]

Does it not look similar to the 00z Euro though?

Yeah actually, it is pretty close to the 00z Euro with the PV.

Also, interestingly, this is just the second run of the GFS that has gotten rid of that Alberta bowling ball. The 06z run did also, BUT it was more dissimilar from the Euro with respect to the PV.

IMO, we've just seen the first real, more acceptable, run of the GFS. Which considering the outcome is quite interesting

[SouthCoastMA]

what's going on Debbie?

My prediction is it comes west and you rip +RN

I hope I'm wrong, but I'd like to see one non American model show otherwise before I get my hopes up!

[dryslot]

12z NOGAPS way OTS

outlier toss it..........lol

[dryslot]

I hope I'm wrong, but I'd like to see one non American model show otherwise before I get my hopes up!

Ahh, I think everyone in this thread does..............

[OKpowdah]

I hope I'm wrong, but I'd like to see one non American model show otherwise before I get my hopes up!

This is far from unprecedented. You're not alone lol

[MaineJayhawk]

I give it my stamp of approval ... I'll wait til I'm at my office PC in a few minutes to look at the map porn. Thanks for play-by-play incidentally ... it's easier than having to look at the maps on the iPod.

[blazess556]

GGEM is a hit and west 3 for 4

[yoda]

12z GGEM on B&W out to 72 -- 1013 L extreme SE GA I believe

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_100.gif

[Boston-winter08]

GGEM is a hit and west 3 for 4

you got a source? mine won't update for 20mins

[blazess556]

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/234_100.gif

GGEM at 96 hrs

[OSUmetstud]

[Ginx snewx]

Poor KGAY and Scooter. From a whiff east to mixing issues.

I do not think Ray has any worries, you however, heavy heavy CT River valley downsloping

[MarkO]

I'm prolly more confident the NOGAPS is out to sea. That model SUCKS!

[CT Rain]

Wow GGEM is way west

[CT Rain]

I do not think Ray has any worries, you however, heavy heavy CT River valley downsloping

LOL I was being dramatic. No downsloping in this setup... this is perfect for us with a N/NNW wind.

it's the screaming ENE retrograde storms that kill us.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looks good Nick.

[mattb65]

I do not think Ray has any worries, you however, heavy heavy CT River valley downsloping

heavy heavy confusing sideways map

[Baroclinic Zone]

Wow GGEM is way west

The makes 2 12z Globals as a hit.

The 00z Euro 500 maps warranted a westward correction.

[dryslot]

Wow GGEM is way west

Another model to add to the positive, 2 more to go Ukie and Dr No......

[Ginx snewx]

heavy heavy confusing sideways map

Fixed

[Typhoon Tip]

Wow GGEM is way west

Mmm, the GGEM has a west bias most of the time after 72 hours.

The NOGAPs has a E biased just the same.

These could explain the differences, but not always of course. It was interesting to me that the NOGAPs stem wound a whopper and west of its 12z run, on the 18z yesterday, too.

[OKpowdah]

I do not think Ray has any worries, you however, heavy heavy CT River valley downsloping

Not much downsloping in this situation. That gradient is just the western edge of the intense CCB

[CoastalWx]

I wouldn't be shocked if I have mixing issues, if indeed the storm goes pretty far west.

[CT Rain]

Mmm, the GGEM has a west bias most of the time after 72 hours.

The NOGAPs has a E biased just the same.

These could explain the differences, but not always of course. It was interesting to me that the NOGAPs stem wound a whopper and west of its 12z run, on the 18z yesterday, too.

Yeah I meant the GGEM is way west from its 00z run. I think the trends in the models are much more important than the actual solutions being printed out.

[Ginx snewx]

Not much downsloping in this situation. That gradient is just the western edge of the intense CCB

Well ya but look at the Berks and the CT river Valley, can not have upslope in the Berks without downs slope, anyways NBD

[CoastalWx]

[mahk_webstah]

Mmm, the GGEM has a west bias most of the time after 72 hours.

The NOGAPs has a E biased just the same.

These could explain the differences, but not always of course. It was interesting to me that the NOGAPs stem wound a whopper and west of its 12z run, on the 18z yesterday, too.

priceless phraseology....

As was posted earlier, Elliot Abrams had an interesting vid out this morning basically saying this storm is still way up in the air and could be a big coastal storm or out to sea. He is usually pretty conservation on this stuff. I had given up at 7am but I'm back on board at noon!