skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Who was scared of changing to rain I don't think that was ever really in the cards, with the exception of possibly the outer cape/islands. It was either a hit with snow or a whiff. I was scared of it a couple days ago.. I still think it's possible but am more worried about the whiff obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Who was scared of changing to rain I don't think that was ever really in the cards, with the exception of possibly the outer cape/islands. It was either a hit with snow or a whiff. We had posters scared of rain as recently as earlier today....hell Jerry was touting 12/30/00 nightmares for Boston. Socks was talking about jackpots for Dobbs Ferry and skiMRG while ORH changed to rain. But I personally think its been fairly apparent that for the last 48-60 hours, that you will need as much longitude as you can get in this system with maybe the exception of the outer Cape...but now I think I'd want to be on the outer Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I was scared of it a couple days ago.. I still think it's possible but am more worried about the whiff obviously. IMO I don't think anyone in CT really had to ever worry about any sort of changeover or any type of mixing...maybe perhaps far SE CT for a brief period but I think we in CT only had to worry about a whiff...which appears this is the solution we are going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 We had posters scared of rain as recently as earlier today....hell Jerry was touting 12/30/00 nightmares for Boston. Socks was talking about jackpots for Dobbs Ferry and skiMRG while ORH changed to rain. But I personally think its been fairly apparent that for the last 48-60 hours, that you will need as much longitude as you can get in this system with maybe the exception of the outer Cape...but now I think I'd want to be on the outer Cape. Yeah the consensus is starting to become pretty clear that if anyone here gets an impact it's probably going to be the outer Cape. We'll just see what the euro says tonight but I think many of us can really discount any sort of impact from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Through 36h, the ECMWF is better with the southern s/w and slower...also a bit slower with the PAC NW energy. Not much change in the N stream yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Through 36h, the ECMWF is better with the southern s/w and slower...also a bit slower with the PAC NW energy. Not much change in the N stream yet. ropes tied, chairs out, inching closer to the edge while holding my computer and F5'ing. Only you can save me, Dr. No... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Through 48 it's much less suppressive with the PV over new england.. nearly identical out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Definitely more amplified through 54h than 66 hours on the 12z run....but I don't like the trend of lower heights in the lakes....southern stream is still more impressive at this hour, and the PAC NW s/w is still a tad slower. Hopefully this clear look of higher heights on the EC results in a better solution....but I'm a bit worried about the northern stream putting this through the wood chipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 We had posters scared of rain as recently as earlier today....hell Jerry was touting 12/30/00 nightmares for Boston. Socks was talking about jackpots for Dobbs Ferry and skiMRG while ORH changed to rain. But I personally think its been fairly apparent that for the last 48-60 hours, that you will need as much longitude as you can get in this system with maybe the exception of the outer Cape...but now I think I'd want to be on the outer Cape. That was three days ago when the ECM showed a 976mb bomb over Montauk and we were supposed to have a robust southern stream with a gorgeous PV phase. The ECM dropped that solution 4-5 runs ago and hasn't gotten it back, which makes me very skeptical of a hit, especially with the GFS trending east. The ECM initialization scheme just seems to have picked up earlier that the southern stream isn't as sharp and won't be able to hold its own against the wood chipper running the pattern these days. I can't imagine having a December with well below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation, but nearly no snowfall. This is rapidly turning into a December '88 or December '89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 We got our lucky break sharper than GFS at 72... PV retrograded.. way better than 12z ecm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Heights definitely still raised in the east at 66h vs 78h on the 12z run...but the Rockies s/w is weaker, that is going to be a problem. We'll see if it can gain any steam, but I'm pretty skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 That weaker Rockies s/w is a killer I think...we have a much better setup with the heights raised on the EC vs the 12z run, but we have nothing to pop this whole thing....we are using a BB gun when we need a shotgun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Heights definitely still raised in the east at 66h vs 78h on the 12z run...but the Rockies s/w is weaker, that is going to be a problem. We'll see if it can gain any steam, but I'm pretty skeptical. Yeah...much higher at 72h. Interesting run...part of me really wanted to right it off and get more sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Its gonna try and make a late hook I think...the storm is much better organized offshore than the 12z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah this is going to be a hit. It's totally inconsistent with 12z ecm.. sharper than 00z gfs through 72. Heights are even higher along the EC than the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is definitely wst of 12z...its gonna be close...probably a good Cape hit...maybe BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 96hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitywave Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 this is the funniest s*** i think i've ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It's going to get all of SNE at least to ORH I've been ****** saying this for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 HUGE hit for eastern New England...BOS getting crushed at 102h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 this is the funniest s*** i think i've ever seen I was literally about to type exactly that. weird hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 WOW, talk about a rollercoaster...this is the last thing i need before a federal taxation exam on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 un...fukin....believable...skierinvt..hows it lookin for se ct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 BOOM As the models turn. Like Will said I wish we had some extra energy diving into that main trough sooner...whether it be the Rockies s/w or some PV lobe diving in from the northern plains. Either way I guess it's "game on" again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Absolutely wow. I can't believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 HUGE hit for eastern New England...BOS getting crushed at 102h what's your take on the extrapolated Ukie? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ukmet/00zukmet850mbTSLPp06ukmetLoop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 un...fukin....believable...skierinvt..hows it lookin for se ct? We get ROCKED I am sure... WARNING criteria for much of SNE.. been saying it for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ROFL!!!!!!!! Where's JERRY! Hope he took his heart meds..... And RAY!!! .... Hahaha this is the most fun I've had with a system in awhile... E Ma crew is going to be excited tomorrow! Goddamn!! how fitting I'm watching four days in October right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 :snowman::snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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