TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Unless you want to look at a whiff, its not worth the time. Kinda wanted to compare H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 That GGEM look isn't going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 CMC a total whiff. One can pin hopes on the Euro and crazy Uncle.....but it's not yet over in terms of what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 CMC a total whiff. One can pin hopes on the Euro and crazy Uncle.....but it's not yet over in terms of what will happen. I think it is pretty much over. No southern stream baroclinic wave means this doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 My snowy winter needs help. I did not count on nada in December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I think it is pretty much over. No southern stream baroclinic wave means this doesn't happen. But all models have a low run up the b/c zone off the coast. I'm hanging onto some amplification in time to hook into me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 How rare is it to have a winter month feature above-normal precipitation but virtually no snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Now that the models are keying in on a totally non-baroclinic southern stream wave, I would be surprised if any models show development, including the UK or ECM unless something else incites southern cyclogenesis. The Pacific NW wave the models had last night doesn't seem strong enough without the southern stream anomaly. We'll see...I don't think the southern stream has everything to do with it right now...though its definitely hurting that it puts into a wood chipper as it heads east....but I think whats going on north of us is hurting a lot. We're seeing a lot of lingering low heights from the PV up near Maine which is not good. The NAM does a decent job clearing that out which is why the NAM solution would likely be a hit. I think its a combo of those thing. Ukie doesn't look good up there but it has some potent energy going into the base of the trough, so it will probably try to make a late hook....not sure if it will be enough, but it will certainly be well west of its 12z run. GGEM looks terrible like the GFS...maybe not quite as terrible, but it doesn't make a difference for us...just a closer miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 My snowy winter needs help. I did not count on nada in December... March will rock, but I'll be in Europe. I guess I can wait until 2011-2012 for any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 But all models have a low run up the b/c zone off the coast. I'm hanging onto some amplification in time to hook into me... You bring up a good point. What you need to incite incipient cyclogenesis is a respectable baroclinic wave. If a sufficiently strong baroclinic wave is not present, either weak or no cyclogenesis at all will develop. This is why the models still show weak off coast development but no strong cyclone. That southern stream wave was the only hope for deeper and more intense cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Like I said before, I really think the timing of the Pac NW s/w is important here. The runs that have produced hits have dropped that thing down the back side of the trough in the plains.. but the 00z GFS slowed the s/w down and so by the time the s/w reaches the plains the trough is already flattening. The 12z euro was also slower with that s/w. The NAM is the fastest with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 We'll see...I don't think the southern stream has everything to do with it right now...though its definitely hurting that it puts into a wood chipper as it heads east....but I think whats going on north of us is hurting a lot. We're seeing a lot of lingering low heights from the PV up near Maine which is not good. The NAM does a decent job clearing that out which is why the NAM solution would likely be a hit. I think its a combo of those thing. Ukie doesn't look good up there but it has some potent energy going into the base of the trough, so it will probably try to make a late hook....not sure if it will be enough, but it will certainly be well west of its 12z run. GGEM looks terrible like the GFS...maybe not quite as terrible, but it doesn't make a difference for us...just a closer miss. Yeah, I see what you are saying. Most of my thoughts are based off ECM and its trends with that southern anomaly. A late hook is possible without it if the northern vortex has the perfect orientation, but without the southern anomaly we have now gone from a "thread the needle" storm to a "so you are saying I have a chance?" from Harry in Dumb and Dumber storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Like I said before, I really think the timing of the Pac NW s/w is important here. The runs that have produced hits have dropped that thing down the back side of the trough in the plains.. but the 00z GFS slowed the s/w down and so by the time the s/w reaches the plains the trough is already flattening. The 12z euro was also slower with that s/w Yeah we definitely need that sucker to inject some energy into the base of the trough. We saw it happen on the 18z GFS with almost nothing in the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What is the woodchipper exactly causing this s/w to be shredded to nothing as it heads east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 We need someone to give blow by blow crazy uncle progs beyond d3. I need to get some sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 is #1 $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 We need someone to give blow by blow crazy uncle progs beyond d3. I need to get some sleep. OSU has 'em right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 OSU has 'em right? Not anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 OSU has 'em right? He used when he was un Bermuda at their weather service Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well nighty night. Maybe the Euro will bring some sugar to our aching hearts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well you still have JB on your side. For what that's worth...he hasn't bailed yet. We need someone to give blow by blow crazy uncle progs beyond d3. I need to get some sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Gfs is going to end up on an island, Watch all the other models come west as it goes east............ Probably the Canary Islands at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well the ensemble mean did go east, but it's well west of and deeper than the OP. Still warning criteria on the outer cape. Impressive for the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Waiting for the Euro at this point seems like waiting on the beach for a tsunami to come...you know you aren't supposed to be there and that it will end badly, but you can't help but watch. It will probably be like 500 miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Waiting for the Euro at this point seems like waiting on the beach for a tsunami to come...you know you aren't supposed to be there and that it will end badly, but you can't help but watch. It will probably be like 500 miles offshore. and if it is my productivity level will go up about 300% because I can finally stop hitting F5 for a little while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Waiting for the Euro at this point seems like waiting on the beach for a tsunami to come...you know you aren't supposed to be there and that it will end badly, but you can't help but watch. It will probably be like 500 miles offshore. How late would one have to stay up to be washed away by the tsunami? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 How late would one have to stay up to be washed away by the tsunami? We'll see the 500 mile whiff by 1:10-1:15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The only model with any semblance of major winter storm has jumped ship. Can we please lay this weekend to rest, finally? These are times it's nice having a job to go to instead of waiting for the Euro to show a solution 500 miles east of the gfs. I'm starting to wonder if we don't get even a moderate event until 2011. Many decent or even good winters began after the New Year, which is dissapointing but better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 BTW, is anyone is still scared of changing to rain over a whiff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 BTW, is anyone is still scared of changing to rain over a whiff? Who was scared of changing to rain I don't think that was ever really in the cards, with the exception of possibly the outer cape/islands. It was either a hit with snow or a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.