H2Otown_WX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I think I'm ready for some warmth. I'm with you..break down the NAO allowing for an all out torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Can someone tell me why we even bother looking at other models besides the euro? Is it summer yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I think I'm ready for some warmth. I will take our chances with a nuetral or slightly positive nao, sw flow events, and being on the snowy side of the boundary. this sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I was mostly being sarcastic. No for real haha, there is potential. Especially if the models trend OTS with the first storm...potential for that second system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Some fookin analysis instead of whining would be sweet. We finally got the shortwave to travel north but big problems with its association to the PV! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm hanging my hat on the 84 NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Some fookin analysis instead of whining would be sweet Heavy heavy cold and dry. See you all at 6:10 AM so I can torture myself some more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Rev Kev's bus... http://thatwillbuffo...12527184918.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I think it's time to begin my May 1st countdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 http://thatwillbuffo...12527184918.jpg "Bus Careens off Cliff, Driver Hanged Himself" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Some fookin analysis instead of whining would be sweet. We finally got the shortwave to travel north but big problems with its association to the PV! Analysis wise, it is actually what everyone was complaining about earlier with the ECM and its S/W bias. In this case, the GFS also suggests that southern stream shortwave "disentegrates". In other words, there is almost no cold air aloft left with that upper level wave and all that is left is a kink in the upper level height field. Phasing doesn't matter and it can't incite low level cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is the time frame where th GFS pukes all over itself, Toss this run and wait until 12z, If the euro comes in OTS, Then its going to be about all she wrote, After 12z tomorow that is............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 what about the uk? what did that show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Analysis wise, it is actually what everyone was complaining about earlier with the ECM and its S/W bias. In this case, the GFS also suggests that southern stream shortwave "disentegrates". In other words, there is almost no cold air aloft left with that upper level wave and all that is left is a kink in the upper level height field. Phasing doesn't matter and it can't incite low level cyclogenesis. Nice post. Makes perfect sense. I still want to vomit and am an old man in tears because it won't snow but thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm hanging my hat on the 84 NAM... The 00z Ukie at 72h looks pretty good to me too and that model was way out to sea at 12z...so I'm hoping there was some sort of burp on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Can someone tell me why we even bother looking at other models besides the euro? Is it summer yet? Several more months to go...it will be nice tracking severe wx threats again, at least we get severe wx here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nice post. Makes perfect sense. I still want to vomit and am an old man in tears because it won't snow but thanks. It will snow here. The 00z Ukie at 72h looks pretty good to me too and that model was way out to sea at 12z...so I'm hoping there was some sort of burp on the 00z GFS. Ukie is one of the better models out there, imo more respectable then the current GFS? Would you agree? The GFS consistency recently has been laughable. EURO consistent obviously but if these other foreigners come around west tonight its hard to imagine the EURO won't... GEM should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nogaps came well west of its 18Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The 00z Ukie at 72h looks pretty good to me too and that model was way out to sea at 12z...so I'm hoping there was some sort of burp on the 00z GFS. Well, I was thinking of the same thing, But i was using a differnt part of the anatomy.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Gfs is going to end up on an island, Watch all the other models come west as it goes east............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nogaps came well west of its 18Z run. It looks east to me by a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Most importantly: HPC fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nice post. Makes perfect sense. I still want to vomit and am an old man in tears because it won't snow but thanks. Here is a better comparison. Note the thermal difference aloft...at 500 hpa here. GFS 2 days ago compared to tonight. Tonight: 2 days ago at the same forecast hour: The difference seems small, but in this case the upper level cold front has vanished and the wave is essentially no longer a baroclinic wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It looks east to me by a little bit. Maybe I'm comparing to 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The northern stream isn't doing us any favors either at 00z...I'll say that much. We've had some stronger tendencies with the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Most importantly: HPC fail The HPC discussion from earlier just made no sense at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The northern stream isn't doing us any favors either at 00z...I'll say that much. We've had some stronger tendencies with the PV. Can someone post the recent NGP? Having issues finding anything but 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 72 hour CMC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Can someone post the recent NGP? Having issues finding anything but 18z. Unless you want to look at a whiff, its not worth the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The northern stream isn't doing us any favors either at 00z...I'll say that much. We've had some stronger tendencies with the PV. Now that the models are keying in on a totally non-baroclinic southern stream wave, I would be surprised if any models show development, including the UK or ECM unless something else incites southern cyclogenesis. The Pacific NW wave the models had last night doesn't seem strong enough without the southern stream anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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