12/19-12/20 threat

[ChrisM]

yeah after you move it 75 miles west!!

that's what im sayin...

[skierinvermont]

Through 24 the GFS still has a pretty decent southwest s/w.. moreso than the Euro did. slows it down a bit vs 18z too

[weathafella]

Server a bit unstable still...

[TalcottWx]

Short wave is slower then 18z... appears to be a little more energy throwing itself down in the midwest.. not sure how much that matters at all at hr 42

[ORH_wxman]

Through 24 the GFS still has a pretty decent southwest s/w.. moreso than the Euro did. slows it down a bit vs 18z too

Its a bit slower than the 18z GFS at 36h and our Rockies s/w (just entering Oregon at 36h) is definitely stronger than 18z...so I'm hoping this means we see it kick west a bit down the road....of course there could be some stuff in the northern stream that screws it up....but the PAC side looks better than 18z did.

[TalcottWx]

Its a bit slower than the 18z GFS at 36h and our Rockies s/w (just entering Oregon at 36h) is definitely stronger than 18z...so I'm hoping this means we see it kick west a bit down the road....of course there could be some stuff in the northern stream that screws it up....but the PAC side looks better than 18z did.

Yeah I'm worried about the northern stream. Check out how much further NW the s/w is through 42 though, juicer also.

[weatherwiz]

Its a bit slower than the 18z GFS at 36h and our Rockies s/w (just entering Oregon at 36h) is definitely stronger than 18z...so I'm hoping this means we see it kick west a bit down the road....of course there could be some stuff in the northern stream that screws it up....but the PAC side looks better than 18z did.

Slower?

Looks like it's a little faster than the 18z run with the s/w entering the PAC NW.

[dendrite]

Slower?

Looks like it's a little faster than the 18z run with the s/w entering the PAC NW.

No...the SW s/w is definitely a bit slower.

[ORH_wxman]

Slower?

Looks like it's a little faster than the 18z run with the s/w entering the PAC NW.

southwest s/w is slower on the 00 GFS.

[skierinvermont]

Its a bit slower than the 18z GFS at 36h and our Rockies s/w (just entering Oregon at 36h) is definitely stronger than 18z...so I'm hoping this means we see it kick west a bit down the road....of course there could be some stuff in the northern stream that screws it up....but the PAC side looks better than 18z did.

It continues to slow the pac nw s/w down though as it has steadily the past 4+ runs .. not sure if that will matter though

on the 06z at 60hrs it was in Idaho.. at 42 hours on the 00z it's still in central oregon

[OKpowdah]

00z GFS is slower with the SW and Pac NW energy. East coast heights are more suppressed so far with the PV

[weatherwiz]

No...the SW s/w is definitely a bit slower.

southwest s/w is slower on the 00 GFS.

yup...see that...looking at the wrong one. Could potentially be a good sign...rather see it slower at this point rather than faster.

[ORH_wxman]

00z GFS is slower with the SW and Pac NW energy. East coast heights are more suppressed so far with the PV

I think slower overall is a bit better since it gives more time for the PV to retrograde and give some room....but man, its just putting everything through the wood chipper through 60 hours.

This is the type of system that will look pretty awful until right before it forms on the coast.

[CTWeatherFreak]

This thing looks flat as a table top through 48h.

[skierinvermont]

hmm.. through 48 the pac nw s/w is slower than 18z by a far amount (so is the southern s/w). I think that might be bad because on the 18z it was slipping into the plains trough.. now it's almost got some ridging between it. If it still makes it into the trough we will be ok though

[DomNH]

Lol...panties in bunches.

[OKpowdah]

PV is absolutely dominating this run

[mattb65]

This thing looks flat as a table top through 48h.

If you mean flat as a curved table top then I agree.

[skierinvermont]

The pac nw energy doesn't make it into the back of the trough in time.. the trough is already sheared apart by the time it makes it.

pac nw energy too slow

[weatherwiz]

PV is absolutely dominating this run

Looks stronger than the 18z run and heights are rather flat as well. Not too enthused about the strength of the PV on this run through 72.

[mattb65]

Looks like heights building somewhat on the east coast and PV retreating hours 60-72

[skierinvermont]

1004 just east west of Bermuda

[nzucker]

The pac nw energy doesn't make it into the back of the trough in time.. the trough is already sheared apart by the time it makes it.

pac nw energy too slow

I thought the southern stream looked worse this run...it doesn't dig nearly as much over Texas/Oklahoma before the storm...the 558dm line was on the TX/OK border at 54 hours on the 18z but now runs through central Oklahoma just south of OKC.

[NorEastermass128]

Less amplification on the 00z...should it hold serve...this will likely trend east?

[OKpowdah]

Very clear movement toward the Euro in terms of handling the PV

[ineedsnow]

im going to say it starting to look like the euro a little bit!

[NorEastermass128]

Less amplification on the 00z...should it hold serve...this will likely trend east?

Wow! Wayyyyyy east. Akin to the 12z EURO...

Dr. No reigns supreme! This threat is just about D-E-A-D. Somebody please post how this is wrong.

[weatherwiz]

Doesn't look like there will be much phasing at all here and if there is it's pretty late in the game...not even sure if it would be in time to get eastern sections hit. THe differences within the pattern post 84HR from the 18z GFS is pretty crazy.

[Organizing Low]

thats 2 storms in a row that the euro has taken everyone to the woodshed

[OKpowdah]

There we have it. Signed, sealed, and delivered.

Partially kidding. Room for a lot of shifting around with the energy out west, as we have seen.