ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I voted yes.. Euro eats crow.. I think we will see warning snows on the cape at least. If only the Cape gets snow, I'm not sure that is really the Euro eating crow...I would think if we can get warning criteria snow back to about I-95, then I'd say it eats crow. I'm starting to think it might though even using that definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If anything potential may be slowly increasing on some sort of impact for far eastern areas...still time to get everyone else involved but I think time is slowly becoming limited for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 he's smarter than he lets on. Yes, this is very true. He just really loves to stir things which isn't bad at all. I can ALWAYS tell when he is trying to jerk someone on her when he makes a forecast b/c he will say something completely opposite of what he posts on facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I voted Euro East Crow because even if it just nails places below Boston that would still be a whiff for the model.....I think it is halfway to Bermuda on the 12z run. I voted yes.. Euro eats crow.. I think we will see warning snows on the cape at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Okay, try again... e, heh. umm, if this NAM solution is correct with the heights and velocities, the v max would pass 1.5 lat/log ESE of LI - very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 its even more sad watching some of you be excited about cashing in now poor old me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If only the Cape gets snow, I'm not sure that is really the Euro eating crow...I would think if we can get warning criteria snow back to about I-95, then I'd say it eats crow. I'm starting to think it might though even using that definition. This has to be the most unbelievable model disparity to date! really is quite something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Okay, try again... e, heh. umm, if this NAM solution is correct with the heights and velocities, the v max would pass 1.5 lat/log ESE of LI - very good. It might look liek this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If only the Cape gets snow, I'm not sure that is really the Euro eating crow...I would think if we can get warning criteria snow back to about I-95, then I'd say it eats crow. I'm starting to think it might though even using that definition. I guess I have a pretty low standard for "eating crow" when it comes to the Euro. But I see your point since the corresponding 12z run of the GFS was warning criteria for most of CT/MA/NH/VT. The euro was definitely mostly correct with the CA s/w as the GFS has trended much flatter with that already (although it remains to be seen if it will be a little more amplified than the 12z Euro). So in reality it would be more like the 18z GFS and 00z NAM beating the old Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It might look liek this http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html That's arguably internet porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It might look liek this http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html That would be AWFUL for this area...that's a pretty extreme QPF gradient but is probably to be expected. That's another issue were going to have to contend with as we get closer to Saturday night/Sunday...if it does appear that at least a portion of the region is going to be affected it could be a major pain trying to figure out the QPF placement if we do indeed see such a tight gradient...a shift of even 20-30 miles west/east could have HUGE implications on where the heaviest snow totals occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It might look liek this http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html looks like the DGEX really tries to mix in most of eastern CT, RI, and SE mass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 That's arguably internet porn. I would ban Ray if he complained at all the rest of the winter if that solution verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 looks like the DGEX really tries to mix in most of eastern CT, RI, and SE mass... Looks like it would be all snow to me in eastern CT and even all of RI...maybe the outer cape has issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It might look liek this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Can we lock it now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 yeah after you move it 75 miles west!! Can we lock it now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It might look liek this http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html NAM 84 was identical to DGEX 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 yeah after you move it 75 miles west!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like it would be all snow to me in eastern CT and even all of RI...maybe the outer cape has issues. look at the temps...looks like the 30degree isotherm cuts through ct with the 35 coming up to the ct coast and into se mass, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 look at the temps...looks like the 30degree isotherm cuts through ct with the 35 coming up to the ct coast and into se mass, no? Some of you CT guys are obsessed with giving SE SNE rain out of this. Don't hug the 2m temps so closely...especially with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Is that the 0z DGEX or 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 You might have to try some that stuff that Miley is puffing to calm your nerves if that verifies. That would be AWFUL for this area...that's a pretty extreme QPF gradient but is probably to be expected. That's another issue were going to have to contend with as we get closer to Saturday night/Sunday...if it does appear that at least a portion of the region is going to be affected it could be a major pain trying to figure out the QPF placement if we do indeed see such a tight gradient...a shift of even 20-30 miles west/east could have HUGE implications on where the heaviest snow totals occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Is that the 0z DGEX or 18z? 18z...it only runs at 6z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If only the Cape gets snow, I'm not sure that is really the Euro eating crow...I would think if we can get warning criteria snow back to about I-95, then I'd say it eats crow. I'm starting to think it might though even using that definition. This has to be the most unbelievable model disparity to date! really is quite something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 look at the temps...looks like the 30degree isotherm cuts through ct with the 35 coming up to the ct coast and into se mass, no? Using the sfc temps is usually not the way to determine R/S line...given the way that low is ripping northerly winds at the sfc, you'd probably see most areas in the mid to upper 20s. Models are notoriously bad with sfc temps. The R/S line would probably be somewhere on the Cape in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Some of you CT guys are obsessed with giving SE SNE rain out of this. Don't hug the 2m temps so closely...especially with that track. It can snow on Cape Cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Some of you CT guys are obsessed with giving SE SNE rain out of this. Don't hug the 2m temps so closely...especially with that track. to be honest, i dont think we will see rain. i just dont like the 2m temps here at all on these runs...granted its the dgex 102hrs out haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It might look liek this http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html Wow dude - that's about exactly the curl up winder one would visualize extrapolating...yes. Darn is that a goodass find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 look at the temps...looks like the 30degree isotherm cuts through ct with the 35 coming up to the ct coast and into se mass, no? Some of you CT guys are obsessed with giving SE SNE rain out of this. Don't hug the 2m temps so closely...especially with that track. Yeah with the track I don't think the 2m temps would actually be that warm, anyways were still a little too far out to really be worrying about 2m temps, plus if it's still quite cold aloft in the lower levels and we have good omega values it would still probably snow even if temps are a bit above 32F You might have to try some that stuff that Miley is puffing to calm your nerves if that verifies. I don't think that is the right stuff to do. I'm fully prepared though not to see much of anything from this, I'm expecting a rather tight snowfall gradient from east to west and I realize I might need a pretty decent westward shift for me to get some decent snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 18z...it only runs at 6z and 18z. Shows how much credibility I've given it in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.