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12/19-12/20 threat


CoastalWx

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They'll be some blowing by me over the next few days, as I'm working dayshift. I definitely earned a few weenies chucked in my direction..lol.

Good ol wiz leading the way, You can bump those post up in the sports forums, But i don't get in there often i frequent like 3 other boards....... :arrowhead:

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This storm has taken over the last 4 days of my life, and the GFS certainly isn't helping matters. I will give it two more runs to get it's act together. Taunton is pretty optimistic though. Anyone know if the block has any signs of breaking down? Seems that is a big player in altering our storms.

Yeah it looks like the block weakens and dies, and then perhaps we may see more gradient developing, but that's down the road a piece. I don't see it looking horrible for us, as of now.

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Total opposite of last winter's fortunes

GYX went pretty gun ho for sun-mon, But they based it off the 12z gfs pretty heavy.........

THINGS GET INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF

THE CAROLINAS AND HEADS NORTHEAST. LATEST GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING

FARTHER WEST WITH THIS STORM AND NOW BRINGS IT NORTHEAST OFF THE

COAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS A CHANCE FOR THE

FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE.

STILL A LONG WAYS OUT AND A LOT CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS BEFORE

GETTING TOO CARRIED AWAY. 00Z ECMWF WAS STILL A LONG WAYS OFFSHORE

SO WOULD HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW IF THIS FOLLOWS THE TREND OF

THE GFS.

AS HAS BEEN THE TRADITION THIS SEASON UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH

THIS LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS INTO

THE GULF OF MAINE AND MEANDERS THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING CONDITIONS

UNSETTLED AT BEST WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

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GYX went pretty gun ho for sun-mon, But they based it off the 12z gfs pretty heavy.........

THINGS GET INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF

THE CAROLINAS AND HEADS NORTHEAST. LATEST GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING

FARTHER WEST WITH THIS STORM AND NOW BRINGS IT NORTHEAST OFF THE

COAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS A CHANCE FOR THE

FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE.

STILL A LONG WAYS OUT AND A LOT CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS BEFORE

GETTING TOO CARRIED AWAY. 00Z ECMWF WAS STILL A LONG WAYS OFFSHORE

SO WOULD HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW IF THIS FOLLOWS THE TREND OF

THE GFS.

AS HAS BEEN THE TRADITION THIS SEASON UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH

THIS LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS INTO

THE GULF OF MAINE AND MEANDERS THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING CONDITIONS

UNSETTLED AT BEST WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

Dayshift are snow weenies. Night shift is comprised of total Grinches.

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okx..

Long term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...

there are two camps in the extended...the La-Nina/fast Pacific flow

dominated ECMWF/UKMET...and the negative nao dominated GFS/CMC/gefs

mean. Noting that the negative nao has been a dominate player so

far...and there is no clear signal that it will abate...have used

the gefs mean as the basis for the extended forecast...as it is not

the extreme of either the operational GFS or CMC global. This also

fits in with the idea that when you are in an aclimatological

pattern...as we are...that you go with the aclimatological solution

- which the GFS/CMC/gefs mean are for a La Nina pattern.

Ultimately either one of the two solutions will play out...there is

no middle ground...as if the nao yields...then the fast Pacific flow

will win out...with a flatter less amplified solution bearing out.

However...this is not the most likely solution at this time.

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