Boston-winter08 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 i'm fully aware that referencing on-camera mets' ideas isn't really the style of this forum, but Bouchard is ready to lock up this one from Sunday - Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 How bout this.. I posted this above but I include here in my response to you so youre sure to see it.. Check this evening's AFD , and catch the forecaster's comment relative to the coast. Im SURE he consults his 'common sense panel', even if its a different one than the one you consult: "....Chance snow inland with likely chances snow and rain along portions of the coast...." Again, all they are going to do is assume snow inland with snow and rain along the coast....it's simply December climo.....I'm sorry for you not being able to process that. ...but hey, you have your age and apparently impressive post count on Easterm as consolation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I can't understand why people are being bitter about the weather...but if that's your thing... Let's all try to enjoy the prospective of snow Right on brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 i'm fully aware that referencing on-camera mets' ideas isn't really the style of this forum, but Bouchard is ready to lock up this one from Sunday - Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Who here wouldn't be happy witha 2-4 or 3-6 from this? Even if we don't get the bomb..there's still the norlun/northern stream system so either way it's gonna snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Again, all they are going to do is assume snow inland with snow and rain along the coast....it's simply December climo.....I'm sorry for you not being able to process that. I always thought that the analysis that went into the AFDs could be pretty deep and quite well thought out.. Is Eckster still doing it? Id be reluctant to dismiss all afds as nothing but climo.. Im fully aware that 5 days out theres not much youre going to know re surface temps in a setup like this.. but regardless, is the sarcasm totally necessary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 P007 would make me burst out laughing. POO6 would make me thrilled. P004 FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Last night's thread fell apart in the multiple pages of "meteorology career planning". Looks like there might be an opening in NYC. lol http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/12/15/new-york-city-meteorologist-lied-raped-cops-say/?test=latestnews By the way--this storm has generated 41 pages of posts today. Righteous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Again, all they are going to do is assume snow inland with snow and rain along the coast....it's simply December climo.....I'm sorry for you not being able to process that. ...but hey, you have your age and apparently impressive post count on Easterm as consolation! Yeah I'm not sure what they are supposed to do 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 2-4, 3-6 > 0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Who here wouldn't be happy witha 2-4 or 3-6 from this? Even if we don't get the bomb..there's still the norlun/northern stream system so either way it's gonna snow raises hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 LOL 13 of the top 20 posters on the board reside in SNE.. We have the biggest and best weenies..chuck em low..chuck em high..chuck a few into KGAY's eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faja4x Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I did some shopping today to prepare for this This was hilarious...just awesome...very clever and I for one thoroughly enjoyed it. Thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I always thought that the analysis that went into the AFDs could be pretty deep and quite well thought out.. Is Eckster still doing it? Id be reluctant to dismiss all afds as nothing but climo.. yes i think think are holes in ray's thinking.... 95% of time spent on the next 3.5 days of partly cloudy with chance of flurries....when there is the first significant threat on the radar and has been for over 7 days? and this sig. threat only gets 5%....nope. That is what you are essentially saying....5% of time spent on day 5-6 forecasts. Well that is a convenient broad brush that is foolish in the current situation for the above mentioned reason.....perhaps if we have a week's worth of dry weather then it could be debatable...but not under the current pattern. Also HPC is leaning heavy on GFS and ensembles.....several of these ensembles show mixing issues with this system at hr 108 or so.....anacedent cold mass is plenty for inland areas with a preferred track....but with the ensembles having borderline BL temps ...i think it is clearly more than climo but obviously should it fit climo then that is different than saying it is all climo. so while i have no idea if said poster was bitter about the cape looking like a hit and him a miss....emotions get involved with weather all the time.....cept with will lol. trying to be non biased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Again, all they are going to do is assume snow inland with snow and rain along the coast....it's simply December climo.....I'm sorry for you not being able to process that. ...but hey, you have your age and apparently impressive post count on Easterm as consolation! PMS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I did some shopping today to prepare for this http://suicide.com/s...er/whylive.html i like the first one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 LOL 13 of the top 20 posters on the board reside in SNE.. We have the biggest and best weenies..chuck em low..chuck em high..chuck a few into KGAY's eye Where is the list of shame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 PMS? rofl. I thought his tone was a bit too pedantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I always thought that the analysis that went into the AFDs could be pretty deep and quite well thought out.. Is Eckster still doing it? Id be reluctant to dismiss all afds as nothing but climo.. Im fully aware that 5 days out theres not much youre going to know re surface temps in a setup like this.. but regardless, is the sarcasm totally necessary? They are well thought out up to about day 3...maybe 4, but since there is a great neccesity to get that correct, their ability to focus on the longer range is compromised.....it really isn't even worth the time considering how low guidance verification scores are in that range....it's in exercise in futility. They just focus on the first few days not only because guidance is most accurate in that range, but it's of paramount importance to society.....thus it's most time efficient to focus on that time frame. We kid around alot in here, don't take the sarcasm personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 They are well thought out up to about day 3...maybe 4, but since there is a great neccesity to get that correct, their ability to focus on the longer range is compromised.....it really isn't even worth the time considering how low guidance verification scores are in that range....it's in exercise in futility. They just focus on the first few days not only because guidance is most accurate in that range, but it's of paramount importance to society.....thus it's most time efficient to focus on that time frame. We kid around alot in here, don't take the sarcasm personally. I see your point.. Listen, on the other board, I spent most of my time with the new yorkers, so I should probably tread lightly here as a newcomer to the area and this forum... Ill treat this as my initial baptism, and take it from there. I probably should have expected a little hazing anyway if I was going to make my own sarcastic remark about the rain thing. I deserved it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 yes i think think are holes in ray's thinking.... 95% of time spent on the next 3.5 days of partly cloudy with chance of flurries....when there is the first significant threat on the radar and has been for over 7 days? and this sig. threat only gets 5%....nope. That is what you are essentially saying....5% of time spent on day 5-6 forecasts. Well that is a convenient broad brush that is foolish in the current situation for the above mentioned reason.....perhaps if we have a week's worth of dry weather then it could be debatable...but not under the current pattern. Also HPC is leaning heavy on GFS and ensembles.....several of these ensembles show mixing issues with this system at hr 108 or so.....anacedent cold mass is plenty for inland areas with a preferred track....but with the ensembles having borderline BL temps ...i think it is clearly more than climo but obviously should it fit climo then that is different than saying it is all climo. so while i have no idea if said poster was bitter about the cape looking like a hit and him a miss....emotions get involved with weather all the time.....cept with will lol. trying to be non biased So let me get this straight, they should spend most of their time on a forecast that is impossible to nail down in this range...got it. I have an idea, why don't they just take a blend of conscensus and climo and call it a forecast......wait, they do!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 LOL 13 of the top 20 posters on the board reside in SNE.. We have the biggest and best weenies..chuck em low..chuck em high..chuck a few into KGAY's eye Thats sad, I'm #14.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 LOL is that a legit receipt? No, I made it on the computer this morning. I used a real receipt as a guide. The products, numbers etc are fake. The store listed is real though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 They are well thought out up to about day 3...maybe 4, but since there is a great neccesity to get that correct, their ability to focus on the longer range is compromised.....it really isn't even worth the time considering how low guidance verification scores are in that range....it's in exercise in futility. They just focus on the first few days not only because guidance is most accurate in that range, but it's of paramount importance to society.....thus it's most time efficient to focus on that time frame. We kid around alot in here, don't take the sarcasm personally. Thick skin..ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Thats sad, I'm #14.......... Jesus, how did you post that many already. Completely nuts man! you pick up any snow today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 rofl. I thought his tone was a bit too pedantic. We know each other.....as most of us do....like I said, don't take any of it personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 What was CTWeatherFreak's Eastern name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 They are well thought out up to about day 3...maybe 4, but since there is a great neccesity to get that correct, their ability to focus on the longer range is compromised.....it really isn't even worth the time considering how low guidance verification scores are in that range....it's in exercise in futility. They just focus on the first few days not only because guidance is most accurate in that range, but it's of paramount importance to society.....thus it's most time efficient to focus on that time frame. We kid around alot in here, don't take the sarcasm personally. You should have consoled Kev the other day over his 0.5" hissy fit The AFDs really are pretty blase about things until 2 or 3 days unless it is a sure thing... so generic... kinda like a horoscope "Hey, it's December, maybe it will snow, maybe not..." Unless Ekster is writing a weenie one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I can't believe I'm 16th.......I can't believe I'm so close to Dave and ERic. THey post sooo much more than I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Thats sad, I'm #14.......... How the heck did I get over 1000 posts without adding a bit of Met knowledge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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