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12/19-12/20 threat


CoastalWx

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How bout this.. I posted this above but I include here in my response to you so youre sure to see it.. Check this evening's AFD , and catch the forecaster's comment relative to the coast. Im SURE he consults his 'common sense panel', even if its a different one than the one you consult:

"....Chance snow inland with likely chances snow and rain along portions of the coast...."

Again, all they are going to do is assume snow inland with snow and rain along the coast....it's simply December climo.....I'm sorry for you not being able to process that. ...but hey, you have your age and apparently impressive post count on Easterm as consolation!

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Again, all they are going to do is assume snow inland with snow and rain along the coast....it's simply December climo.....I'm sorry for you not being able to process that.

I always thought that the analysis that went into the AFDs could be pretty deep and quite well thought out.. Is Eckster still doing it? Id be reluctant to dismiss all afds as nothing but climo..

Im fully aware that 5 days out theres not much youre going to know re surface temps in a setup like this.. but regardless, is the sarcasm totally necessary?

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Last night's thread fell apart in the multiple pages of "meteorology career planning". Looks like there might be an opening in NYC. lol

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/12/15/new-york-city-meteorologist-lied-raped-cops-say/?test=latestnews

By the way--this storm has generated 41 pages of posts today. Righteous.

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Again, all they are going to do is assume snow inland with snow and rain along the coast....it's simply December climo.....I'm sorry for you not being able to process that. ...but hey, you have your age and apparently impressive post count on Easterm as consolation!

Yeah I'm not sure what they are supposed to do 5 days out.

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I always thought that the analysis that went into the AFDs could be pretty deep and quite well thought out.. Is Eckster still doing it? Id be reluctant to dismiss all afds as nothing but climo..

yes i think think are holes in ray's thinking....

95% of time spent on the next 3.5 days of partly cloudy with chance of flurries....when there is the first significant threat on the radar and has been for over 7 days? and this sig. threat only gets 5%....nope.

That is what you are essentially saying....5% of time spent on day 5-6 forecasts. Well that is a convenient broad brush that is foolish in the current situation for the above mentioned reason.....perhaps if we have a week's worth of dry weather then it could be debatable...but not under the current pattern.

Also HPC is leaning heavy on GFS and ensembles.....several of these ensembles show mixing issues with this system at hr 108 or so.....anacedent cold mass is plenty for inland areas with a preferred track....but with the ensembles having borderline BL temps ...i think it is clearly more than climo but obviously should it fit climo then that is different than saying it is all climo. so while i have no idea if said poster was bitter about the cape looking like a hit and him a miss....emotions get involved with weather all the time.....cept with will lol.

trying to be non biased

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Again, all they are going to do is assume snow inland with snow and rain along the coast....it's simply December climo.....I'm sorry for you not being able to process that. ...but hey, you have your age and apparently impressive post count on Easterm as consolation!

PMS?

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I always thought that the analysis that went into the AFDs could be pretty deep and quite well thought out.. Is Eckster still doing it? Id be reluctant to dismiss all afds as nothing but climo..

Im fully aware that 5 days out theres not much youre going to know re surface temps in a setup like this.. but regardless, is the sarcasm totally necessary?

They are well thought out up to about day 3...maybe 4, but since there is a great neccesity to get that correct, their ability to focus on the longer range is compromised.....it really isn't even worth the time considering how low guidance verification scores are in that range....it's in exercise in futility.

They just focus on the first few days not only because guidance is most accurate in that range, but it's of paramount importance to society.....thus it's most time efficient to focus on that time frame.

We kid around alot in here, don't take the sarcasm personally.

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They are well thought out up to about day 3...maybe 4, but since there is a great neccesity to get that correct, their ability to focus on the longer range is compromised.....it really isn't even worth the time considering how low guidance verification scores are in that range....it's in exercise in futility.

They just focus on the first few days not only because guidance is most accurate in that range, but it's of paramount importance to society.....thus it's most time efficient to focus on that time frame.

We kid around alot in here, don't take the sarcasm personally.

I see your point.. Listen, on the other board, I spent most of my time with the new yorkers, so I should probably tread lightly here as a newcomer to the area and this forum... Ill treat this as my initial baptism, and take it from there. I probably should have expected a little hazing anyway if I was going to make my own sarcastic remark about the rain thing. I deserved it :)

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yes i think think are holes in ray's thinking....

95% of time spent on the next 3.5 days of partly cloudy with chance of flurries....when there is the first significant threat on the radar and has been for over 7 days? and this sig. threat only gets 5%....nope.

That is what you are essentially saying....5% of time spent on day 5-6 forecasts. Well that is a convenient broad brush that is foolish in the current situation for the above mentioned reason.....perhaps if we have a week's worth of dry weather then it could be debatable...but not under the current pattern.

Also HPC is leaning heavy on GFS and ensembles.....several of these ensembles show mixing issues with this system at hr 108 or so.....anacedent cold mass is plenty for inland areas with a preferred track....but with the ensembles having borderline BL temps ...i think it is clearly more than climo but obviously should it fit climo then that is different than saying it is all climo. so while i have no idea if said poster was bitter about the cape looking like a hit and him a miss....emotions get involved with weather all the time.....cept with will lol.

trying to be non biased

So let me get this straight, they should spend most of their time on a forecast that is impossible to nail down in this range...got it.

I have an idea, why don't they just take a blend of conscensus and climo and call it a forecast......wait, they do!!

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They are well thought out up to about day 3...maybe 4, but since there is a great neccesity to get that correct, their ability to focus on the longer range is compromised.....it really isn't even worth the time considering how low guidance verification scores are in that range....it's in exercise in futility.

They just focus on the first few days not only because guidance is most accurate in that range, but it's of paramount importance to society.....thus it's most time efficient to focus on that time frame.

We kid around alot in here, don't take the sarcasm personally.

Thick skin..ftw

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They are well thought out up to about day 3...maybe 4, but since there is a great neccesity to get that correct, their ability to focus on the longer range is compromised.....it really isn't even worth the time considering how low guidance verification scores are in that range....it's in exercise in futility.

They just focus on the first few days not only because guidance is most accurate in that range, but it's of paramount importance to society.....thus it's most time efficient to focus on that time frame.

We kid around alot in here, don't take the sarcasm personally.

You should have consoled Kev the other day over his 0.5" hissy fit :violin:

The AFDs really are pretty blase about things until 2 or 3 days unless it is a sure thing... so generic... kinda like a horoscope

"Hey, it's December, maybe it will snow, maybe not..."

Unless Ekster is writing a weenie one

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