12/19-12/20 threat

[Tropopause_Fold]

I feel like the s/w coming onshore theory is routinely applied when things look relatively bleak and we all need some hope to hold on to. If the model consensus was for a KU right now, nobody would give two shts about where the s/w was and when it was going to be sampled completely.

That said, hopefully it's good for a small west trend.

it makes little sense. it implies that the raobs are like an armed fortress and are sampling 24/7...guaranteed to get the data. the e/w distance between NKX and TUS is like 425 miles. lol.

[powderfreak]

i think there's a myth out there that that doesn't happen ever. it does actually snow here.

jackpot might be a dusting though on this one.

Haha, oh I'm well aware you guys do jackpot and get some awesome winter storms. My best bud and 6-year roommate is originally from Sandwich... we've gone down to his father's place right on the water to chase storms. Though for the most part they have been busts, lesson learned is you don't want me driving down there as it seems to *scare* away the storms, haha.

His dad has some phenomenal pictures from 2005.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I feel like the s/w coming onshore theory is routinely applied when things look relatively bleak and we all need some hope to hold on to. If the model consensus was for a KU right now, nobody would give two shts about where the s/w was and when it was going to be sampled completely.

That said, hopefully it's good for a small west trend.

Well, I'm not relying on it, I just said that you can never be totally sold on an outcome until it is ashore.....if everything was dead-set on a whiff, then it would be less important, but do have some differenes remaining among guidance....not to mnetion that if there does exist an achilles heel with respect to the EURO, this is it.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

You rarely chase severe storms when it comes to the Cape. I guess we have had some pretty intense supercells, like the July 2, 2009 hailstorm.

[powderfreak]

Yeah, that would be totally awesome.

So greedy

[CTWeatherFreak]

i think there's a myth out there that that doesn't happen ever. it does actually snow here.

jackpot might be a dusting though on this one.

Some winters, it seems all the cape can conjure up is snow changing to rain, while areas just to the west hit paydirt. Yet, I recall winters where the Cape was the snow capital of the east due to its proximity to eastbound noreasters.

In general I think cape cod weather is some of the most interesting around.... As for me being in hartford, Ill never forget last winter which sucked big time for me, while areas south and west were receiving historic snowfall amounts. I only moved here a year ago from white plains, ny... I think we get about a foot more snow per year than my former digs, but youd never know it from last year!! So im really waiting for this area to start proving itself...

[DomNH]

Well, I'm not relying on it, I just said that you can never be totally sold on an outcome until it is ashore.....if everything was dead-set on a whiff, then it would be less important, but do have some differenes remaining among guidance.

Yeah I know what you're saying. The 00z tonight will be interesting, that's for sure. I think we get a fairly good idea of whether we're fooked or not tonight.

[ski MRG]

I said that with this managerial accounting class I'm in right now. Hasn't changed. Friday will be the final dagger in my heartwith that one

trying to change my major though. I'd basically have to restart college three years in, but I can't stand what I'm doing. I hate business, I hate my classes, teachers, and I hate to say it but I hate the fact that I can rarely understand what others are saying around me because they're from Asia. Thinking about changing my major to geosciences, something I like...and maybe teaching. so yeah...I guess you're right, there is always hope.

Step 1. Quit posting in class

Step 2. Pay attention

Step 3. Take notes

Step 4. Review notes

Step 5. Do all assigned reading/work

Step 6. Succeed

[40/70 Benchmark]

it makes little sense. it implies that the raobs are like an armed fortress and are sampling 24/7...guaranteed to get the data. the e/w distance between NKX and TUS is like 425 miles. lol.

Not sure who implied that, but the notion that there is a more extensive means for data assimilation over land as opposed to the sea is fact.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Phil it will be interesting to see if the HIRES 00z model runs come more nw with the clipper tomorrow. I wonder if it is actually possible that the models trend quicker with the intensification of the offshore low.

yeah i don't know...suspect it's flurries/-shsn, at best.

[ORH_wxman]

18z GFS ensemble mean is about 75 mi E of the benchmark. Really not all that different from the OP position..maybe just a smidge E.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Some winters, it seems all the cape can conjure up is snow changing to rain, while areas just to the west hit paydirt. Yet, I recall winters where the Cape was the snow capital of the east due to its proximity to eastbound noreasters.

In general I think cape cod weather is some of the most interesting around.... As for me being in hartford, Ill never forget last winter which sucked big time for me, while areas south and west were receiving historic snowfall amounts. I only moved here a year ago from white plains, ny... I think we get about a foot more snow per year than my former digs, but youd never know it from last year!! So im really waiting for this area to start proving itself...

we definitely have our share of poop-tacular winters

[ChrisM]

Step 1. Quit posting in class

Step 2. Pay attention

Step 3. Take notes

Step 4. Review notes

Step 5. Do all assigned reading/work

Step 6. Succeed

What I'm saying is that even if I succeed in my current major I can tell I'm not going to like it. Business is just not for me. Everyone who knows me says the same thing..."You're a business major? Literally the last thing I can see is you sitting at a desk".

I'd love to be doing something with the earth or weather, and I think it's time to go for it. Thanks Pete.

[ski MRG]

So greedy

No, it's ok if you get snow too. At least it'll be put to good use. Practiced ice skiing today.

[Kbosch]

After you've been around for a while you'll see that sometimes, just when you think your out of the game, you get a late inning rally. Never say die.

Those who live and die with these systems must give up early enough in the game lest they be killed by the agony of the process.

I certainly think we have a chance for the next 24 to 36 hours. If nothing changes by then let's welcome 2011.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Not sure who implied that, but the notion that there is a more extensive means for data assimilation over land as opposed to the sea is fact.

no one. i wasn't criticizing you at all. i just hate this argument. LOL.

[ski MRG]

What I'm saying is that even if I succeed in my current major I can tell I'm not going to like it. Business is just not for me. Everyone who knows me says the same thing..."You're a business major? Literally the last thing I can see is you sitting at a desk".

I'd love to be doing something with the earth or weather, and I think it's time to go for it. Thanks Pete.

Geez, you broke step 1 right out of the gate.

[Baroclinic Zone]

18z GFS ensemble mean is about 75 mi E of the benchmark. Really not all that different from the OP position..maybe just a smidge E.

Works for me.

[ChrisM]

Geez, you broke step 1 right out of the gate.

What? I'm sitting in my apartment

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

yeah i don't know...suspect it's flurries/-shsn, at best.

Yeah thats all I would expect too, but it would give me something to look forward to tonight's runs as well as the weekend snowstorm potential. Celtics game tonight should keep me away for 2 1/2 hours, NAM should be done running by then. 18z GEFS means didn't look that bad to hour 84. Here is to some late trend magic in the 00z runs showing a quicker intensifying clipper as it clips us to the southeast sometime Thursday night into Friday morning. Taunton, MA NWS mentions OES as if its got quite a bit of potential this weekend into Tuesday.

[moneypitmike]

A prolonged light snow that ends up 5-8''? Make it happen.

Pro-longed mostly cloudy.

[CoastalWx]

Well at least we have the DGEX.

[Boston-winter08]

18z NOGAPS is about 300+ miles west from 12z, but still just grazes the Cape

[40/70 Benchmark]

no one. i wasn't criticizing you at all. i just hate this argument. LOL.

I hear ya, there is no doubt it is overplayed and abused by weenies when trends go south, but I just happen to believe this to be one instance in which it may actually be applicable.....believe me, I'm often the first to roll my eyes when folks start playing that card. lol

[earthlight]

Heavy, heavy spread to the west on the 20 GFS superensemble MSLP spaghetti at 96 hrs

[moneypitmike]

Heavy, heavy spread to the west on the 20 GFS superensemble MSLP spaghetti at 96 hrs

western spread ftw.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Yes, I will take that any day of the week. Snows for about 60-72 hours on the ensemble means.

[CTWeatherFreak]

No, we took a cursory glance at the common sense panel.

Not to beat a dead horse, but I couldnt resist:

Apparently, the folks at the NWS dont review that panel .

For Brewster Mass on the cape:

Sunday: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy and windy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy and windy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[ski MRG]

Those who live and die with these systems must give up early enough in the game lest they be killed by the agony of the process.

I certainly think we have a chance for the next 24 to 36 hours. If nothing changes by then let's welcome 2011.

Doubt there is anybody here that wants snow more than me. However, after watching the weather for years I find it's best to just roll with the punches. I try to hold back judgement one way or the other until late in the game. The key is to quickly move the focus to the next threat on the horizon once the most immediate threat is completely out of the question. There is still plenty of uncertainty about this event that is still 4 days away. A few small changes could reap big rewards. If it's OTS I'm sure the next threat will come into view quickly.

[earthlight]

Here's the 18z GFS ensemble spread..all of the red lines indicate 990 or lower surface pressure and those are really the ones you want to pay attention to. The heavy black line I outlined is the OP GFS. Heavy disagreement and heavy hope on these ensembles.