12/19-12/20 threat

[40/70 Benchmark]

maybe, but did you check the surface and 850 temps during the heavy precip?

No, we took a cursory glance at the common sense panel.

[DomNH]

maybe, but did you check the surface and 850 temps during the heavy precip?

The H85 0c line is like 150 miles away.

[weathafella]

Yeah it definitely still hits SNE verbatim but it moved 250 miles east, more towards what the ECM shows. One more shift at 0z on the GFS and you'd be totally out of the QPF. Definitely looking like the major differences in the handling of the SS are trending towards the ECM/weaker depictions.

Interestingly, the storm on the heels of this one looks much stronger on the 18z GFS. Unusual to have two powerful systems in a short vicinity.

It did not move 250 miles but it did move about 75 and that's a big difference around here both in ptype and amount depending on location. If the Euro comes 50miles west we (eastern NE) get good snows. If the GFS moves to the Euro, most of us are fooked.

[Boston-winter08]

Even with the 18z run, the PV over ME continues to be adjusted further west 50 miles or so each run...u would think there would be positive implications due to less blocking

man, this is not a good storm to coincide with final exam week

[TalcottWx]

Gonna happen.....somewhere....sometime...

There's the mindset! It's gonna at least hammer the cape I think in my opinion or at least bring the the extreme eastern zones measurable. Seems as if the NAM/DGEX and GFS might be coming back to the storm idea. Foreign runs tonight will be interesting to say the least. Could get squashed yet again.

[ChrisM]

game over for western NE

[TalcottWx]

game over for western NE

I would agree with that, along with most of the far interior. Advisory at best MOST likely.

[OKpowdah]

That Rockies shortwave has strength differences too...I went back and looked at the Euro on WSI and toggled it with the GFS and the GFS is definitely more potent, and it probably one of the reasons it manages to save eastern New England this run despite the southern stream being put through the wood chipper.

Not a good sign though that the Euro is weaker.

Run to run though, it doesn't look like there's much change in the GFS with the Rockies s/w. If we could have the Euro make that oooonnnne small compromise ... ah heck with it lol.

Anyway, I'm not a huge fan of how the 18z GFS deals with the PV energy to our north, which messes with the height field over the east coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd feel pretty good from ORH points east, but even W NE could still get in on this.....unwise to discount the chance for a trend reversal once that sw comes ashore.

[TalcottWx]

I'd feel pretty good from ORH points east, but even W NE could still get in on this.....unwise to discount the chance for a trend reversal once that sw comes ashore.

It gon' snow.

[Baroclinic Zone]

[DomNH]

I'd feel pretty good from ORH points east, but even W NE could still get in on this.....unwise to discount the chance for a trend reversal once that sw comes ashore.

I'd say I feel slightly optimistic at this point. Need the 00z runs to look good.

[ChrisM]

I would agree with that, along with most of the far interior. Advisory at best MOST likely.

or it comes onshore, the models can handle the s/w better and it shows the storm coming west 200 miles burying me in two feet of snow while bringing a mix to the CP and rain to CC. I need to find something to do until Friday..

[powderfreak]

It would be kind of fun to see the Cape jackpot

[Boston-winter08]

When is the s/w expected to come ashore?

[ski MRG]

game over for western NE

You give up easily.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd say I feel slightly optimistic at this point. Need the 00z runs to look good.

Give it until 12z before you really pull the plug, but it would be pretty bleak if the 00z conscensus marches further east.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It would be kind of fun to see the Cape jackpot

i think there's a myth out there that that doesn't happen ever. it does actually snow here.

jackpot might be a dusting though on this one.

[ski MRG]

It would be kind of fun to see the Cape jackpot

Yeah, that would be totally awesome.

[DomNH]

I feel like the s/w coming onshore theory is routinely applied when things look relatively bleak and we all need some hope to hold on to. If the model consensus was for a KU right now, nobody would give two shts about where the s/w was and when it was going to be sampled completely.

That said, hopefully it's good for a small west trend.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah, that would be totally awesome.

[dendrite]

Give it until 12z before you really pull the plug, but it would be pretty bleak if the 00z conscensus marches further east.

I've pretty much thrown in the towel for a blockbuster up here. I'm just hoping for enough accumulation to cover the grass.

[ski MRG]

That didn't sound sincere?

[ChrisM]

You give up easily.

eh its been a two day process

[ski MRG]

eh its been a two day process

After you've been around for a while you'll see that sometimes, just when you think your out of the game, you get a late inning rally. Never say die.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Phil it will be interesting to see if the HIRES 00z model runs come more nw with the clipper tomorrow. I wonder if it is actually possible that the models trend quicker with the intensification of the offshore low.

[ChrisM]

After you've been around for a while you'll see that sometimes, just when you think your out of the game, you get a late inning rally. Never say die.

I said that with this managerial accounting class I'm in right now. Hasn't changed. Friday will be the final dagger in my heartwith that one

trying to change my major though. I'd basically have to restart college three years in, but I can't stand what I'm doing. I hate business, I hate my classes, teachers, and I hate to say it but I hate the fact that I can rarely understand what others are saying around me because they're from Asia. Thinking about changing my major to geosciences, something I like...and maybe teaching. so yeah...I guess you're right, there is always hope.

[CTWeatherFreak]

The H85 0c line is like 150 miles away.

yes.. but the surface is above freezing.. probably wouldnt be rain, so on that I stand corrected. but this depiction likely would have a fair amount of NOT snow involved .

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_120l.gif

And yes, as someone earlier said, I am not thrilled about my chances here in ct! Mom lives in brewster on the cape though, so I guess a road trip wouldnt be totally out of order, depending on how things play out.

[Baroclinic Zone]

yes.. but the surface is above freezing.. probably wouldnt be rain, so on that I stand corrected. but this depiction likely would have a fair amount of NOT snow involved .

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_120l.gif

And yes, as someone earlier said, I am not thrilled about my chances here in ct! Mom lives in brewster on the cape though, so I guess a road trip wouldnt be totally out of order, depending on how things play out.

Not a good idea to use the 120 surface temp. progs.

[ORH_wxman]

yes.. but the surface is above freezing.. probably wouldnt be rain, so on that I stand corrected. but this depiction likely would have a fair amount of NOT snow involved .

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_120l.gif

And yes, as someone earlier said, I am not thrilled about my chances here in ct! Mom lives in brewster on the cape though, so I guess a road trip wouldnt be totally out of order, depending on how things play out.

If the GFS verified, it would be all snow on the Cape. No doubt about it. GFS sucks with 2m temps...and even the one's it shows are like 33F wet snow. But I bet temps would be comfortably below freezing in that setup.