40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I was responding to Zuck's idea that there is no s/w now. There is. What it does is up to the models but he was talking inits I thought. Well, I thought you meant that it would still hit us when you said "it may still happen"....that is all I disagreed with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'll take it any day and twice on Sunday...I don't need a KU, just 4-6'' to make things look nice for Christmas. Hopefully Ray's idea of an ENE hit comes to fruition. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Nice to see the GFS trend east along with the op Euro and Euro ensembles. Great sign!!! you have to think its almost got it...a few more runs and it should finally see what they see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Nice to see the GFS trend east along with the op Euro and Euro ensembles. Great sign!!! Yeah, I think it might come east again as the southern stream was pretty dampened this run....certainly might be a victory for ECM initialization as the 18z NAM and GFS both trended east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This run is essentially 12/26/04 Same time of the year...maybe we'll get 71 because we lost a month and that year gave us 86 including some in Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Congrats to Phil for the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 left hook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah, I think it might come east again as the southern stream was pretty dampened this run....certainly might be a victory for ECM initialization as the 18z NAM and GFS both trended east. 18z NAM was east for a different reason though.. PV holds on too long in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well, I thought you meant that it would still hit us when you said "it may still happen"....that is all I disagreed with. And you were wrong. It gives inside 495 0.75+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This run is essentially 12/26/04 I missed that storm up here. I had to go to New Jersey to be "together" with my "family" on "Christmas." When I got back to Boston there were eight inches of snow on the ground and I was wicked pissed I hadn't been around to see it fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 A prolonged light snow that ends up 5-8''? Make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Congrats to Phil for the jackpot. Yeah... that has storm chase to the cape written all over it. CT_Blizz hangs himself under flurries and cirrus while Phil goes streaking on the beach in wind-whipped powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah... that has storm chase to the cape written all over it. CT_Blizz hangs himself under flurries and cirrus while Phil goes streaking on the beach in wind-whipped powder. To be honest there is some positive in missing a storm like this if it means CT Blizz misses it too after locking in major snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah... that has storm chase to the cape written all over it. CT_Blizz hangs himself under flurries and cirrus while Phil goes streaking on the beach in wind-whipped powder. Best possible scenario, in my opinion, but 4 days is enough time for plenty to change. I'll be humping the Euro until it breaks serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 sweet run of the gfs like rain much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Main difference appears to be in the northern stream, with the lead southern stream s/w not necessarily the main factor. Though they're kinda working in concert to determine the strength of ridging on the east coast. This would be another very good run for New England if we could have a Euro-esque northern stream. As it is, it's still a big hit for the Cape obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 like rain much? There's no way in hell the Cape would be rain on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Why do I waste my time.... Kick save and a beauty for eastern MA! GFS still a decent hit for Boston... Outer Cape gets crushed. Oh Jerry Jerry Jerry! What a torturous obsession and hobby. Good news, I'm home now. I have brought the snow with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 And you were wrong. It gives inside 495 0.75+ Yes, I apologize....I spoke to soon. ENE special still plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Main difference appears to be in the northern stream, with the lead southern stream s/w not necessarily the main factor. Though they're kinda working in concert to determine the strength of ridging on the east coast. This would be another very good run for New England if we could have a Euro-esque northern stream. As it is, it's still a big hit for the Cape obviously That Rockies shortwave has strength differences too...I went back and looked at the Euro on WSI and toggled it with the GFS and the GFS is definitely more potent, and it probably one of the reasons it manages to save eastern New England this run despite the southern stream being put through the wood chipper. Not a good sign though that the Euro is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The Europeans may have a great computer model....but their women don't shave...so we got them there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 There's no way in hell the Cape would be rain on this run. He;s just bitter because he lives in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Oh Jerry Jerry Jerry! What a torturous obsession and hobby. Good news, I'm home now. I have brought the snow with me. Gonna happen.....somewhere....sometime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yes, I apologize....I spoke to soon. ENE special still plausible. Unless you consider it the beginning of an east trend that has 4 days to unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 like rain much? ? my post was about how much the gfs sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 And you were wrong. It gives inside 495 0.75+ Yeah it definitely still hits SNE verbatim but it moved 250 miles east, more towards what the ECM shows. One more shift at 0z on the GFS and you'd be totally out of the QPF. Definitely looking like the major differences in the handling of the SS are trending towards the ECM/weaker depictions. Interestingly, the storm on the heels of this one looks much stronger on the 18z GFS. Unusual to have two powerful systems in a short vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yes, I apologize....I spoke to soon. ENE special still plausible. All good. I wouldn't have called it and didn't until the hook became apparent. Still a long shot to develop this way so 0Z should help...or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 There's no way in hell the Cape would be rain on this run. maybe, but did you check the surface and 850 temps during the heavy precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Unless you consider it the beginning of an east trend that has 4 days to unfold. I'm aware of that very real chance, which is why I said "plausible", not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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