earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 18z DGEX confirms my suspicion that the upper levels suggested the NAM was headed wide right of the GFS. At least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think it was similar to this, the Euro not close and the GFS had been and continued thereafter to waffle with near misses....I believe though the 12Z Thursday AM run when the Euro finally showed a storm the GFS actually was a miss, but on the ensuing 18 that afternoon and then the 00Z that night the GFS got it back...the Euro then lost it at 00Z that night before getting it back Friday AM....it was a crazy swing. Yeah you are probably right...I didn't recall either model really schooling the other one in 12/19/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well the GFS has initialized and still has our s/w way off the CA coast in the corner of the map. Watch what that feature does it's not that the euro doesn't have it though. it's that the euro just dissolves it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 about 9" deep So h e say's anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Didn't it happen 12/19/09? GFS was flopping, sometimes it showed a hit, sometime it didnt but more often it did.....kinda like now. Euro was showing a hit in the midrange, then took it away and was OTS for 4 or 5 runs, before coming back. not as extreme as this time, though memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 18z DGEX confirms my suspicion that the upper levels suggested the NAM was headed wide right of the GFS. At least for now. this is true, but it does look to bury 495 east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I remember the 12Z Euro on the 17th shocked everyone since the 12Z GFS/NAM/GEM were all misses and suddenly the Euro showed a 12-18 inch snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 18z DGEX confirms my suspicion that the upper levels suggested the NAM was headed wide right of the GFS. At least for now. Where are you getting this? My e-wall only shows yesterdays 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Where are you getting this? My e-wall only shows yesterdays 18Z. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/18zdgex.html You actually do very well on it, though, Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Where are you getting this? My e-wall only shows yesterdays 18Z. then this might be yesterday's, as well: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex850mbTSLPp06dgexLoop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Boston gets absolutely destroyed on the DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Wow it completely swings back and goes nuts in the later panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 18z gfs flatter in the southwest through 18 hours.. not totally flat but not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 it was 18z NAM that led the charge last year lol i distincly remember it because the ETA went berserk as well of course, they both ended up being overamped, but still i remember all weenie hope was lost after a disappiointing 12z Euro, only to be rekindled by the NAM/ETA combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Ugh.. it's caving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Boston gets absolutely destroyed on the DGEX There's your longitude gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 surprise surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 this is true, but it does look to bury 495 east I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Boston gets absolutely destroyed on the DGEX I prefer this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think it's becoming increasingly evident that the differences are 4DVAR related, and obviously the Euro would be superior in that regard. I don't really think the SW bias would come into play too much here. I'm losing a lot of hope for my area, though E SNE getting hammered is still certainly in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 There's your longitude gradient. BOS 25", ORH 15", and NW_Conn hangs himself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think it's becoming increasingly evident that the differences are 4DVAR related, and obviously the Euro would be superior in that regard. I don't really think the SW bias would come into play too much here. I'm losing a lot of hope for my area, though E SNE getting hammered is still certainly in the cards. I agree.. I don't think this is related to SW bias.. it's data assimilation. 4DVAR should win. There is still room/time for the euro to trend though.. but it's becoming less and less likely especially away from the immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Boston gets absolutely destroyed on the DGEX Shades of Feb 1969....what I woulod give to lock that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yes GFS is dampening the southern system but that doesn't concern me at all at this point. If it does at 0Z then I'm nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 BOS 25", ORH 15", and NW_Conn hangs himself? I can live with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 BOS 25", ORH 15", and NW_Conn hangs himself? And we start another season of me getting absolutely F'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Chalk up another victory for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 BOS 25", ORH 15", and NW_Conn hangs himself? If that verified, it would easily be one of the worst storms ever for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I agree.. I don't think this is related to SW bias.. it's data assimilation. 4DVAR should win. There is still room/time for the euro to trend though.. but it's becoming less and less likely especially away from the immediate coast The Euro really doesn't look different at 0 hours than the GFS did...it totally dampens the s/w though as it heads through the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 And we start another season of me getting absolutely F'd I remember being nice to a boy from the HVN area jumping for joy 12/30/00 while I was hearing heavy rain pelt on my skylight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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