12/19-12/20 threat

[moneypitmike]

Look at the sattelite imagery and see if you can see the s/w over the Pacific (I haven't done this). Maybe that will help you. Otherwise, you're betting purely on past performance not what's on the ground in the air.

fixed

15.2/6

[Zeus]

Finally; someone understands.

[Typhoon Tip]

What is that garbage off the se coast though? Throw it out. Shouldnt be hard to do with the extended 18z nam lol.

Those are convectively induced vort maxes

[Organizing Low]

Zirob is my new favorite member

[Zeus]

NWS Taunton has likely POPS for Sunday & Sunday night now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Actually, it's not that far off from the 12z GFS frame by frame, for whatever that's worth.

But, I maintain...

Ha...had to save that.

I'm worried, but in the end I still think at least e ne will see snow.

[ORH_wxman]

NWS Taunton has likely POPS for Sunday & Sunday night now.

I'd probably go with likely too....even the nightmare-inducing Euro solution gives Boston an inch or so of snow.

[CT Rain]

I'd probably go with likely too....even the nightmare-inducing Euro solution gives Boston an inch or so of snow.

The Euro also is showing an inverted trough developing northwest of the sfc low. Something to think about even with a nasty miss.

[dendrite]

Sure looks like something is there. Why does it dampen on the Euro?

Here's a loop

[ORH_wxman]

The Euro also is showing an inverted trough developing northwest of the sfc low. Something to think about even with a nasty miss.

Yeah the 5h low gets into a favorable spot for an inverted trough to setup and get some extra instability aloft that even a miss would still probably give a chunk of the region measurable snow...even if only an inch or two....but that is obviously pretty crappy compared to the potential this has.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah the 5h low gets into a favorable spot for an inverted trough to setup and get some extra instability aloft that even a miss would still probably give a chunk of the region measurable snow...even if only an inch or two....but that is obviously pretty crappy compared to the potential this has.

Will knows how much I love inverted troughs!!

[weathafella]

Here's a loop

Thanks Brian. We should keep our eyes on this and look at it overnight. It will give us the verdict I suspect.

[CT Rain]

Yeah the 5h low gets into a favorable spot for an inverted trough to setup and get some extra instability aloft that even a miss would still probably give a chunk of the region measurable snow...even if only an inch or two....but that is obviously pretty crappy compared to the potential this has.

I wonder if the ensembles are picking up on that as well. The bagginess toward the coast could just be b/c of that inverted trough.

[moneypitmike]

I'd probably go with likely too....even the nightmare-inducing Euro solution gives Boston an inch or so of snow.

Even in my zfp, they give a 40% chance on Sunday (dry saturday night). I tell ya, I'm almost tempted to try and stay up for the gfs tonight. I won't, but I'm tempted.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I wonder if the ensembles are picking up on that as well. The bagginess toward the coast could just be b/c of that inverted trough.

yeah thought about that this morning - wish there was access to the ind. members

[ORH_wxman]

I wonder if the ensembles are picking up on that as well. The bagginess toward the coast could just be b/c of that inverted trough.

I'm hoping that the ensembles are suffering from the same issue that the OP run is suffering from...not putting enough pop into that southern stream....and of course hoping its wrong.

The GFS now agrees with the Euro pretty well with all the northern stream stuff,so if the Euro comes in more robust with the southern stream and we get hit, then this is going to be a rare huge win for the GFS at 96 hours.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Pacific/STJ is quite active right now. Just by looking at WV imagery, quite the jet with the clipper this midweek period.

[SouthCoastMA]

I'm hoping that the ensembles are suffering from the same issue that the OP run is suffering from...not putting enough pop into that southern stream....and of course hoping its wrong.

The GFS now agrees with the Euro pretty well with all the northern stream stuff,so if the Euro comes in more robust with the southern stream and we get hit, then this is going to be a rare huge win for the GFS at 96 hours.

Those words just sound funny in the same sentence. What's scary is we are now under 100 hours and the EURO is still showing a chair tipping OTS solution.. One of these model groups is going to be sent to the woodshed hard, and very soon.

I think if the UKMET was at least on the American side, I'd feel a little more confident in thinking the EURO was off it's rocker this time around. Hard to argue its consistency over the past 2 days though.

[OKpowdah]

I'm hoping that the ensembles are suffering from the same issue that the OP run is suffering from...not putting enough pop into that southern stream....and of course hoping its wrong.

The GFS now agrees with the Euro pretty well with all the northern stream stuff,so if the Euro comes in more robust with the southern stream and we get hit, then this is going to be a rare huge win for the GFS at 96 hours.

It'll be a huge win for the GFS and it'll produce fantastic agreement which will make it hard to argue against a major storm for us.

But that's only if...

[ORH_wxman]

Those words just sound funny in the same sentence. What's scary is we are now under 100 hours and the EURO is still showing a chair tipping OTS solution.. One of these model groups is going to be sent to the woodshed hard, and very soon.

I can't remember the last time the GFS took the ECMWF to the woodshed at 96 hours in a big winter storm here....I think it has to be Feb 2006. Ironically that one involved southern stream energy coming out the southwest too.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2006/us0210.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2006/us0211.php

The hope is that its same vintage bias is at play here.

[weathafella]

It'll be a huge win for the GFS and it'll produce fantastic agreement which will make it hard to argue against a major storm for us.

But that's only if...

Again...and I don't know why, but phasers involving the southern stream at least back through recent history seems to be a potential Achilles Heal of the Euro. Last year's big dump in December is the case in point when it laid a turd until fairly close in.

[Dsnowx53]

I'm hoping that the ensembles are suffering from the same issue that the OP run is suffering from...not putting enough pop into that southern stream....and of course hoping its wrong.

The GFS now agrees with the Euro pretty well with all the northern stream stuff,so if the Euro comes in more robust with the southern stream and we get hit, then this is going to be a rare huge win for the GFS at 96 hours.

To be fair, it would be the GFS that won in the southern stream (and in the surface reflection), but the Euro that won in the northern stream.

[weathafella]

I can't remember the last time the GFS took the ECMWF to the woodshed at 96 hours in a big winter storm here....I think it has to be Feb 2006. Ironically that one involved southern stream energy coming out the southwest too.

http://www.meteo.psu...2006/us0210.php

http://www.meteo.psu...2006/us0211.php

The hope is that its same vintage bias is at play here.

Didn't it happen 12/19/09?

[ORH_wxman]

To be fair, it would be the GFS that won in the southern stream (and in the surface reflection), but the Euro that won in the northern stream.

Yes for the D5-6 verification...but I'm talking 96 hours now...they models are the same in the northern stream now. The only difference lies in the southern stream, so for 96 hour verification, the Euro could lose if we see the GFS s stream ideas pan out.

[ORH_wxman]

Didn't it happen 12/19/09?

I'm pretty sure both models were still pretty seaward at 96 hours...though I do recall the Euro being late to the party once down to about 72 hours out. But it wasn't as glaring difference as what we are seeing now.

[8611Blizz]

FWIW it appears B.Burbank is a Euro lover while bouchard is balls deep into the GFS..

Noyes seems to be leaning more on the Euro but does think the wind direction will help coastal areas.

[skierinvermont]

Well the GFS has initialized and still has our s/w way off the CA coast in the corner of the map. Watch what that feature does

[ORH_wxman]

FWIW it appears B.Burbank is a Euro lover while bouchard is balls deep into the GFS..

Didn't Bostonwx always accuse Burbank of being a GFS hugger? lol

At any rate, its hard to go against the Euro at this time range, but I would probably lean that way too...but its not an easy forecast because the one feature that is making the difference is historically the achilles heel of the Euro.

[SouthCoastMA]

FWIW it appears B.Burbank is a Euro lover while bouchard is balls deep into the GFS..

about 9" deep

[earthlight]

18z DGEX confirms my suspicion that the upper levels suggested the NAM was headed wide right of the GFS. At least for now.