earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM not headed in the right direction this run, either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 yeah that i ugly...but that is a ton of isobar bulging to the nw so i dont feel terrible Out of the tub now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Euro ensemble mean is southeast of 40/60 lol. Obviously like 00z some members are further northwest with some definitely SLP bagginess NW of the low but the ensemble mean is so far east I think that's a very omnious sign for this storm. not if the main difference is a weak or non-existent sw shortwave. If it sees no shortwave then ots is the way it goes. If is see it stronger then that changes the whole equation, n'est pas? Many butterflies are flapping their wings madly in the pacific right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 yeah that i ugly...but that is a ton of isobar bulging to the nw so i dont feel terrible 00z had the same bulge to the NW. Seeing the mean go southeast though is definitely a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Euro ensemble mean is southeast of 40/60 lol. Obviously like 00z some members are further northwest with some definitely SLP bagginess NW of the low but the ensemble mean is so far east I think that's a very omnious sign for this storm. I hear you in general ... but it hasn't been 5 runs of the ECM. 00z Tuesday has a bomb running by close enough to douce the area with snow and wind. 12z Tuesday (just yesterday) the model pulled the plug abruptly and has been all over the map ever since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Euro ensemble mean definitely southeast of 00z. Bad sign. Yeah but my question is, why wouldnt the ensembles be out to sea like the op run? Unless they perturb the strength of the southwest shortwave for which the euro essentially doesnt have, does it really matter? i'm just grasping here, I'm leaning 65-35 that were pretty toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM not headed in the right direction this run, either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Page 27 and 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I hear you in general ... but it hasn't been 5 runs of the ECM. 00z Tuesday has a bomb running by close enough to douce the area with snow and wind. 12z Tuesday (just yesterday) the model pulled the plug abruptly and has been all over the map ever since. No... 00z Tuesday was a miss too. 12z Monday was close enough for snow on the Cape and maybe advisory snow in Boston. 00z Monday was a wide miss too 12z Sunday was the big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah but my question is, why wouldnt the ensembles be out to sea like the op run? Unless they perturb the strength of the southwest shortwave for which the euro essentially doesnt have, does it really matter? i'm just grasping here, I'm leaning 65-35 that were pretty toast. I eat pretty toast for breakfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah but my question is, why wouldnt the ensembles be out to sea like the op run? Unless they perturb the strength of the southwest shortwave for which the euro essentially doesnt have, does it really matter? i'm just grasping here, I'm leaning 65-35 that were pretty toast. Well you'd expect it to be out to sea as well. But I wasn't sure it would go southeast of 00z which already was a big miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM not headed in the right direction this run, either Looks fine to me. After hr84, it's closing in on the phase. Everything is shifted east a little from the 12z run, but otherwise, it's not bad. but who the heck cares because it is the 18z NAM at the end of the run Personally, I am just impressed with its agreement with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM not headed in the right direction this run, either What is that garbage off the se coast though? Throw it out. Shouldnt be hard to do with the extended 18z nam lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM not headed in the right direction this run, either Don't worry. The DGEX will find a way to turn it into a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 What I dont understand is how HPC can go so bullish with the storm track into the gulf of maine wirth the Euro so far out to sea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM not headed in the right direction this run, either Why do you say that? The CA and MT S/Ws look good to me ..and it trended towards the GFS/ECM with the retrograding of the PV. The 12z NAM was totally different with the PV.. didn't retrograde it nearly as much as the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well you'd expect it to be out to sea as well. But I wasn't sure it would go southeast of 00z which already was a big miss. Look at the sattelite imagery and see if you can see the s/w over the Pacific (I haven't done this). Maybe that will help you. Otherwise, you're betting purely on past performance not what's on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I hear you in general ... but it hasn't been 5 runs of the ECM. 00z Tuesday has a bomb running by close enough to douce the area with snow and wind. 12z Tuesday (just yesterday) the model pulled the plug abruptly and has been all over the map ever since. no. it hasn't had a hit since the 12z sunday run @ t=168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well you'd expect it to be out to sea as well. But I wasn't sure it would go southeast of 00z which already was a big miss. Fair enough. Given the nam/gfs/can dont budge 00z tonight or that the uk/euro dont miraculously come around west, Ill be waiting for the sampling of that wave for the final nail in the coffin 12z tmrw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM not headed in the right direction this run, either Actually, it's not that far off from the 12z GFS frame by frame, for whatever that's worth. But, I maintain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The NAM looks really amplified at 300mb. It's a pretty good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 1292446358[/url]' post='114093']Why do you say that? The CA and MT S/Ws look good to me ..and it trended towards the GFS/ECM with the retrograding of the PV. The 12z NAM was totally different with the PV.. didn't retrograde it nearly as much as the other models 18z NAM isn't bad...would be close but I prefer the 12z NAM look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Look at the sattelite imagery and see if you can see the s/w over the Pacific (I haven't done this). Maybe that will help you. Otherwise, you're betting purely on past performance not what's on the ground. (time sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 (time sensitive) Sure looks like something is there. Why does it dampen on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Wednesday night storm is interesting. Short range models are trending more northwest and stronger with the surface low as it passes to the southeast of the region. Could clip the Cape and Islands with some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 18z NAM isn't bad...would be close but I prefer the 12z NAM look. Disagree.. the PV is going to retrograde .. the 12z NAM didn't retrograde it like the other models did.. now it is trending towards them but didn't quite make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 18z NAM isn't bad...would be close but I prefer the 12z NAM look. Me too...that's really where my post stemmed from. The run isn't bad but as far as getting this thing up the coast I preferred the 12z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Me too...that's really where my post stemmed from. The run isn't bad but as far as getting this thing up the coast I preferred the 12z solution. earthlight your expertise is needed in the NY/NJ metro thread I pointed out how much better 84hr 300mb looked but can't really explain the science behind it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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