OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 18z NAM is more amplified in the SW so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 A little OT since it isn't the Sunday event, but a little norlun snow in coastal ME 42-48hr of the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Here's one deserving of a foot longer... Maybe the Euro corrected its bias and overdid it and now has not much of a wave where prior it would be held back. The applied the upgrade overnigtht and will announce after it shifts hard west tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 thus far it's a move toward the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 18z NAM is more amplified in the SW so far I find it hard to beat the Nam and gfs together.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I want to believe the Nam and gfs together.. Yes me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 A little OT since it isn't the Sunday event, but a little norlun snow in coastal ME 42-48hr of the 18z NAM. Every model run keeps bumping the system NW a little. SE New England might end up getting clipped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 thus far it's a move toward the 12z GFS Yep.. agree strongly.. it's much more like the GFS with regards 1. to the PV over eastern Canada, 2. it no longer has that s/w and troughiness over WY/NE at 42 hours 3. the southwest s/w sped up slightly All 3 are a step towards the GFS... it's still slower with the southwest s/w though. I'd say they are in relatively tight agreement now given how different the NAM and GFS often look at 36+ hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 they are late today that's usually a good sign when the data can't be reviewed before a big storm, we always got clocked up at UML - we actually did a statistical analysis and proved this to be true with fairly high correlation coefficients, to the point where if a big event was scheduled, a DIFAX data outage was almost dependable on whatever day was the key lead time confidence interval. Seriously. Pretty remarkable frustration actually. The only storm of the 1994-1995 tormented winter we had there was a data outage and eerie internet failure on the same day before the storm, so we knew we were golden Btw, one thing the Euro and UKMET have in common is a weaker S stream than the others. Not by much, but it also shows the background potential here. Just "that" much more stream dynamics south will have a way of really changing the outcome downstream over the eastern conus. If the Euro somehow sees more southern stream dynamics in tonight's run it will use that to induce a southward motion of SPV fragmetation - similar to the 84 hour NAM (eyes roll but I'm just using that as a facsimile). Otherwise it will remain flat. The ECM's 4d variable system is supposed to be a superior assimilation/realization package for initialization, so it would be comparatively rare for it to blow this thing if that is the case. So be it; as Jerry mentioned, the Euro was proven fallable prior to at least one of the bigger MA events last year so it can be done. Above all else, what really leaps out at me is the general discontinuity of the ECM over the past 3 cycles; it has been deplorable and I believe a red flag. Even NCEP mentions the GEFS cluster is a better synoptic fit. The ECM was first over-committing N stream and phasing into a NW turning vortex from LI to upstate NY, then it was abruptly flat and way out to sea, now, it is out to sea but winds up a magnificent beast S of NS. I don't believe we can fairly count on that kind of irregularity any more than discount the GFS, which by the way, other than just 2 cycles has been pretty consistent. Have we really gotten that bad off with the GFS that it's consistency is tossed for ECM inconsistency? No, I think there is an overt tendency to allow the worst possible model run the most credence. I don't know if that is a defense mechanism or what, but it isn't really logical. Anyway, here's to the 18z painting a perfect picture. For the general geek like me, incredible appeal out of doors here in interior SNE today. 18F with 30mph gusts, slate gray and steady light snow with some blowing snow. Beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 A little OT since it isn't the Sunday event, but a little norlun snow in coastal ME 42-48hr of the 18z NAM. I think the 12z nam had it briefly as well........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think the 12z nam had it briefly as well........ Yes but mostly offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I find it hard to beat the Nam and gfs together.. The Euro has done it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yep.. agree strongly.. it's much more like the GFS with regards 1. to the PV over eastern Canada, 2. it no longer has that s/w and troughiness over WY/NE at 42 hours 3. the southwest s/w sped up slightly All 3 are a step towards the GFS... it's still slower with the southwest s/w though. I'd say they are in relatively tight agreement now given how different the NAM and GFS often look at 36+ hours Also the GFS and NAM movement today has been actually towards the Euro in terms of points 1 and 2. Obviously the main disagreement lies with the amplitude of the SW trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The Euro has done it before. Indeed. Europe vs. America is a timeless classic, and one we never seem to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Euro ensemble mean definitely southeast of 00z. Bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Indeed. Europe vs. America is a timeless classic, and one we never seem to win. The odds are equivalent to the 1980 USA hockey team beating the Soviets. i.e. don't bet your house on it, but it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Hate to be a debbie downer... BUT... a southeast trend on the Euro ensembles and op run... in addition to 5 straight euro runs of a miss or whiff make me really feel bad about this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Euro ensemble mean definitely southeast of 00z. Bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Euro ensemble mean definitely southeast of 00z. Bad sign. What's funny in a not so ha-ha way is that if we took a compromize between the GEFS and the Euro cluster, the blend equals a cosmic dong ride too the Euro group have to be soooooo far out there that one cannot even rely on the compromize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Euro ensemble mean is southeast of 40/60 lol. Obviously like 00z some members are further northwest with some definitely SLP bagginess NW of the low but the ensemble mean is so far east I think that's a very omnious sign for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannyglover Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 How do all of you routinely amp yourself up for storms like this? I'll be pulling my hair out if this happens all winter. I'm extremely new to this forum but I'm already updating this thread every few minutes to see the latest development. I reside in Boston and desperately am seeking to break the current streak of no white stuff that we have. I'd almost rather not even know of potential storms a week out. If you never knew about it to begin with, you aren't going to be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Indeed. Europe vs. America is a timeless classic, and one we never seem to win. Except where it really counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Euro ensemble mean definitely southeast of 00z. Bad sign. They weren't really close to begin with so that puts them crossing 40N/sucktasticW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 How do all of you routinely amp yourself up for storms like this? I'll be pulling my hair out if this happens all winter. I'm extremely new to this forum but I'm already updating this thread every few minutes to see the latest development. I reside in Boston and desperately am seeking to break the current streak of no white stuff that we have. I'd almost rather not even know of potential storms a week out. If you never knew about it to begin with, you aren't going to be disappointed. you're fooked now. welcome to the land of getting fat and lower production. congratulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The odds are equivalent to the 1980 USA hockey team beating the Soviets. i.e. don't bet your house on it, but it can happen. Not even close.... Those odds were way lower than this storm.... But, anything goes, you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 They weren't really close to begin with so that puts them crossing 40N/sucktasticW Yeah they were a miss by a good margin at 00z. Might as well add 100 miles to that margin by 12z lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Euro ensemble mean is southeast of 40/60 lol. Obviously like 00z some members are further northwest with some definitely SLP bagginess NW of the low but the ensemble mean is so far east I think that's a very omnious sign for this storm. yeah that i ugly...but that is a ton of isobar bulging to the nw so i dont feel terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Euro ensemble mean is southeast of 40/60 lol. Obviously like 00z some members are further northwest with some definitely SLP bagginess NW of the low but the ensemble mean is so far east I think that's a very omnious sign for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 How do all of you routinely amp yourself up for storms like this? I'll be pulling my hair out if this happens all winter. I'm extremely new to this forum but I'm already updating this thread every few minutes to see the latest development. I reside in Boston and desperately am seeking to break the current streak of no white stuff that we have. I'd almost rather not even know of potential storms a week out. If you never knew about it to begin with, you aren't going to be disappointed. It's a disease. Welcome to the board.You were great in Lethal Weapon btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 18z NAM looks very similar to the 12z GFS. Looks like it would end up a tad SE of the 12z NAM (... but I'm definitely not extr*polating the N*M....). Pretty funny how good the agreement is here compared to the rest of the model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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