baroclinic_instability Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Really doesn't mean much, but the usually flat and less impressed (and nearly defunct) ETA is also a bit impressed with the shortwave entering the Baja than the Euro..and has a depiction more similar to the GFS in that regard. Which eventually leads to this. http://www.meteo.psu...ENT_12z/f84.gif Yeah the only reason they bother running it is for use in the multi-model SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I believe he was busy writing the HPC discussion... 12Z GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH ITS STRONGER SHORTWAVE AMPLIFICATION AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. ITS MID LEVEL CONFIGURATION BY DAYS 4-5 FITS THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN PATTERN. ITS EXACT TRACK IS CRITICAL TO PCPN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ESPECIALLY NEW ENGLAND. GOOD AGREEMENT BY THE 12 GFS ENS MEAN AND 12Z CMC BUT CONTINUED FLAT AND WELL AT SEA BY THE UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH TWO SEPERATE CAMPS. RAPID OFFSHORE DEEPENING SCENARIO BY THE GFS RUNS SEEMS MORE LIKELY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW ENCOUNTER AN UNSTABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASED BAROCLINICITY FROM THE CURRENT STRONG COLD ADVECTION FLOW OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS. SOME COASTAL RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF PCPN ACROSS ERN VA/SRN MD/DELMARVA/ COASTAL NJ. DEEPENING LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST 40/70 BENCHMARK AND CLOSED OFF MID LEVEL AND WELL DEVELOPED H850 LOW SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL HVY SNOWFALL INTO ERN AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EAST OF THE MS VALLEY WITH AGAIN WINDY CONDITIONS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TUESDAY-ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD SURGE POTENTIAL DEEP EXTENDING AGAIN INTO FLORIDA LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. That seems like absolute crap reasoning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Interesting that HPC is going more toward the GFS than the Euro right now. Any reason for that Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Just saw the 12z GFS ensembles. Man, I would be shocked if ENE did not at least see some accumulating snow. They're essentially split into two camps, as well. Not very convincing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Interesting that HPC is going more toward the GFS than the Euro right now. I agree with them, though I'd wait to go QUITE so robust until the sw is ashore and we gain some confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 That seems like absolute crap reasoning. But Rosenstein is one of the better ones no? I like Flood...trust him. Uccelinni still there? Wonder what he thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 That seems like absolute crap reasoning... INCREASED BAROCLINICITY FROM THE CURRENT STRONG COLD ADVECTION FLOW OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS. Wow laughable. Trying to figure out how CAA over the Gulf Stream now enhances it for later potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 But Rosenstein is one of the better ones no? I like Flood...trust him. Uccelinni still there? Wonder what he thinks I have no idea about the HPC forecasters. However, I just don't understand the reasoning there. The main issue is with the southwest shortwave...it has nothing to do with marine baroclinicity. If the shortwave isn't there..it isn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 That seems like absolute crap reasoning... I agree....I would have just said that I hedged toward a somewhat stronger SW than the EURO displays because it is still over a relatively data void region and the EURO has a bias with respect to the whitholding of sw energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 HPC model diagnostics disco: ...WAVE NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRI... PREFERENCE: GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL COMPROMISE THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD BY FRI... WITH THE NAMLEANING TO THE SLOW SIDE OF THE SPREAD AND THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF ONTHE FAST/SERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIANGLBL/REG GEM GENERALLY ADD SUPPORT FOR AN INTERMEDIATE SOLNBETWEEN THE NAM AND 00Z ECMWF EXTREMES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLEFLATTER THAN OTHER SOLNS WITH MID LVL FLOW REACHING NRN CA AS OFF48 EARLY FRI... SO WOULD RECOMMEND THE MOST SIMILAR CLUSTERING OFGFS/UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL SOLNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 That seems like absolute crap reasoning... Well it seems clear that they think there'll be a S/W to work with that the euro doesn't show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 WIth all of todays runs considered everyone has to feel pretty good..at least better than 24 hrs ago that we will all see snow this weekend..whether it's a couple inches or more who knows..but we all see snow with model concensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 HPC model diagnostics disco: ...WAVE NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRI... PREFERENCE: GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL COMPROMISE THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD BY FRI... WITH THE NAMLEANING TO THE SLOW SIDE OF THE SPREAD AND THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF ONTHE FAST/SERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIANGLBL/REG GEM GENERALLY ADD SUPPORT FOR AN INTERMEDIATE SOLNBETWEEN THE NAM AND 00Z ECMWF EXTREMES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLEFLATTER THAN OTHER SOLNS WITH MID LVL FLOW REACHING NRN CA AS OFF48 EARLY FRI... SO WOULD RECOMMEND THE MOST SIMILAR CLUSTERING OFGFS/UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL SOLNS. King Euro versus the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Stating the obvious, but one way or the other the GFS or Euro has to move to the other camp and soon, otherwise it will be an epic fail in the 4-5 day lead. and which one is more notorious for epic fails in the 4-5 day lead? I'll give you a hint. It rhymes with shmeeffess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I wonder if the Euro is missing some data today and that's why it initialized so late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 WIth all of todays runs considered everyone has to feel pretty good..at least better than 24 hrs ago that we will all see snow this weekend..whether it's a couple inches or more who knows..but we all see snow with model concensus Yup 5 straight Euro runs with a miss. Feel great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I wonder if the Euro is missing some data today and that's why it initialized so late its just being chionophobic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I wonder if the Euro is missing some data today and that's why it initialized so late Brilliant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yup 5 straight Euro runs with a miss. Feel great! Well other than Will who is laying in the bathtub with hairdryer plugged in but not turned on. most of us still agree the Euro bias potentially is at play here..so there's no reason to flip the switch on the hairdryer to on yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The excruciating thing is this: Retrograding block argues for a storm. We'll get either the Euro or GFS but nothing in between. It's all or very little this time imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I wonder if the Euro is missing some data today and that's why it initialized so late lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 DT on board. Game on wonder if that sw bais of the euro is affecting how it is handking s/w in STJ as it comes into the sw states ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well other than Will who is laying in the bathtub with hairdryer plugged in but not turned on. most of us still agree the Euro bias potentially is at play here..so there's no reason to flip the switch on the hairdryer to on yet Did you take a poll of bald men living on a mountain in CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 DT on board. Game on Maybe, just maybe. The Ensm. have to show something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 DT on board. Game on I think we honestly still have a good chance considering the precarious situation we are in with respect to the EURO.....big jump west in store for it imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well other than Will who is laying in the bathtub with hairdryer plugged in but not turned on. most of us still agree the Euro bias potentially is at play here..so there's no reason to flip the switch on the hairdryer to on yet It's certainly possible the Euro's bias is somewhat the cause of this. Still... I'm not that excited about getting a blockbuster back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 DT on board. Game on where are you reading this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 where are you reading this? From his keyboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 where are you reading this? 12z model thread on wx side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The GFS, NAM, RGEM, GGEM, and SREFs all have a decent s/w coming into CA (the GFS and NAM are probably the strongest and sharpest) In the opposing camp where the s/w is much flatter we have the ECM, UKMET, and RUC Of what use is the RUC at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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