ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 1-2" for Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Did anyone see what crazy Uncle Ukie did from d5 to d6?? He's nuts. Pulls a storm from north of BDA and creams New England. D5: D6: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GGEM...hit UK..looks like Euro Ok...I would just go with a compromise right now...light snow possible for eastern SNE by Sunday. Heaviest down by the Cape & Islands. I think the 4-6PM newscasts will go with the scraper scenario even if the 18z GFS is another blizzard. EURO is king. I don't think it's possible to have this miss by hundreds of miles to the SE like it shows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 That could definitely be the culprit. I do like how the Euro looks with the PV/northern stream. So if it is screwing up the southern stream s/w then we're back in business. It's our only hope and luckily..that's it's well known bias..and we've seen that happen this close to a big storm before on the Euro on several storms the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Let's get that data sampled properly tomorrow. Gibbs thinking maybe Euro sw hold energy back bias in play I'm gonna go out on a limb and call for an abrupt reemergence of that SW tmw when that SW is properly assimilated by the models...not calling for a KU, but I think there will be a significant event for at least ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 so I guess the next question is what happens if 18z gfs holds fast with the 12z solution? thatll be many runs in a row that show a hit, no? Nothing changes no matter what the 18z GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Even though the Euro has gone east... this makes 5 runs in a row that it has missed SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Did anyone see what crazy Uncle Ukie did from d5 to d6?? He's nuts. Pulls a storm from north of BDA and creams New England. Jerry...you're looking at one updated panel, and one old panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Maybe .... But I can do that because I don't actually forecast for anyone. I can''t recall many instances though where we are at about 96 hours out and the US models are going for a storm and the Euro is the one that is way out to sea. It's a strange situation. You're making the potentially incorrect assumption that the Euro is wrong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 this literally makes no sense right now. the euro is an outlier to MOST models by hundreds of miles right now Most other models are wrong. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Did anyone see what crazy Uncle Ukie did from d5 to d6?? He's nuts. Pulls a storm from north of BDA and creams New England. D5: D6: Yesterday's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 1-2" for Phil. Awesome!!! Maybe Wiz will go chase it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Maybe .... But I can do that because I don't actually forecast for anyone. I can''t recall many instances though where we are at about 96 hours out and the US models are going for a storm and the Euro is the one that is way out to sea. It's a strange situation. I can...Feb 3-4, 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Nothing changes no matter what the 18z GFS shows. You're about to fill the tub..just hold off on dropping the hairdryer in and jump on the sw bias bandwagon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Did anyone see what crazy Uncle Ukie did from d5 to d6?? He's nuts. Pulls a storm from north of BDA and creams New England. Refresh your day 6. It wasn't updated. It's a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Jerry...you're looking at one updated panel, and one old panel. Then why is the 144 hour date stamp 12/20 at 12Z which is 144 hours from init? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Then why is the 144 hour date stamp 12/20 at 12Z which is 144 hours from init? Your day 6 wasn't updated. Day 5 was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The Euro does have a bias of holding back SW energy... but in this case the Euro is showing no energy to hold back. Virtually no s/w at all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Then why is the 144 hour date stamp 12/20 at 12Z which is 144 hours from init? 144 hours from now would be 12/21 at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Then why is the 144 hour date stamp 12/20 at 12Z which is 144 hours from init? 12/20 is 120 hours away...it is 12/15 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's our only hope and luckily..that's it's well known bias..and we've seen that happen this close to a big storm before on the Euro on several storms the last few years. it happened last year i recall the NAM 18z was suddenly amped up, the GFS was already sorta, and then euro followed bigtime the next day. im not sure which of the 3 big storms it was, im pretty sure it was the one that got up into new england. i remember it like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Sorry....I forgot what date today was....lol... I'm thinking we're getting nailed. Pattern is right, and Euro isn't as far as you think. 12Z tomorrow it will change. Last year's DC bomb (Dec) had the Euro very late to the party I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The RUC says what southwest s/w? I don't think this is a Euro bias here. Given the lead time and favorable northern stream we can still get a storm even if the Euro is 90% correct though. A stronger s/w in MT would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I can...Feb 3-4, 2009. Yea....the epic blizzard the ended up a norlun flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 it happened last year i recall the NAM 18z was suddenly amped up, the GFS was already sorta, and then euro followed bigtime. im not sure which of the 3 big storms it was, im pretty sure it was the one that got up into new england. i remember it like yesterday. It did it on the 12/19 event. The Euro didn't come around until what would be the equivalent of tomorrow 12z. The NAM was amped up, the GFS was jumping back and forth, and the Euro had been OTS until the 12z run on the 16th or 17th I believe it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The Euro does have a bias of holding back SW energy... but in this case the Euro is showing no energy to hold back. Virtually no s/w at all lol It has the shortwave over over the Pacific well west of S California at 0 hours, but it basically disintegrates into nothing by 36 hours as its supposed to be going through S CA and Arizona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 it happened last year i recall the NAM 18z was suddenly amped up, the GFS was already sorta, and then euro followed bigtime the next day. im not sure which of the 3 big storms it was, im pretty sure it was the one that got up into new england. i remember it like yesterday. Euro has def. blown some big ones in recent yrs this close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Most other models are wrong. lol yeah, I guess I want to just believe this is not true right now. This is getting borderline ridiculous. Whiffed to the left, whiffed to the south, whiffed to the north, whiffed to the west. 22" of snow in 18 months. yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Even though the Euro has gone east... this makes 5 runs in a row that it has missed SNE. has it at any point since this weekend - when it was day 7 or greater - actually shown a *meaningful* hit for SNE? not a "it's close" run...but an actual hit? i don't think it has...i think the best/worst case was when it had some 3-5" type snows in BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitywave Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 day 6 nova scotia hook wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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