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Severe Threat Saturday 8/4/12


tornadotony

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Don't think we'll have power here much longer lol. Ridiculous amount of lightning showing up with this thing as some of you guys have pointed out. Strongest winds may hit a bit north, as the outflow from the southwest may cut the best winds off. Gonna be close. Really muggy out there with dews up into the mid 70s now.

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Cold pool from the previous MCS really screwed southern WI over. At least it's going to rain, can't complain about that this year.

You talking about south central part - southeastern part seems pretty unstable now. Plenty of sun around here to get things further destabilized.

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You talking about south central part - southeastern part seems pretty unstable now. Plenty of sun around here to get things further destabilized.

It's unstable here too (sfc temps approaching 90) but the part of the squall line that's approaching is still dead. Maybe it'll fire up as it gets to the better CAPE in the next hour though, key thing is we need a density current that's colder than the old cold pool to develop and push out ahead. We shall see and maybe I did speak too soon.

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Kind of an interesting situation developing here. Strong northward moving cell heading right at us from the south, with the powehouse line blowing in from the west. Looks like they may both hit at the same time lol.

Similar situation produced the West Lafayette F4 in 1994. Hopefully for your sake there won't be repeat. ;)

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Luckily power only flickered on and off a few times. Picked up over 2" of rain in less than 45 minutes. Very heavy rain. Winds never got any higher than about 45mph, but the lightning was insane.

That's some serious rain! Probably your heaviest rainfall all summer!?

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Rain has begun, wisps of cloud developing aloft as the cold rain falls into the warm boundary layer air. Convective cells going up along an outflow boundary stretching from the WI/IA/IL border to Devil's Lake... about where the old outflow boundary was before this system overtook it. Could get interesting quickly for southern WI.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

311 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0308 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SW ROCKFORD 42.22N 89.13W

08/04/2012 M75 MPH WINNEBAGO IL TRAINED SPOTTER

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Newest LOT disco:

000

FXUS63 KLOT 041957

AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

257 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...

256 PM CDT

IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE CONCERN

FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

ONGOING CONVECTION PRODUCED AN MCV WHICH GENERATED A LINE OF

THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA. THE ENVIRONMENT OUT

AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA IS VERY

WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE. AS OF 19Z...MUCAPE VALUES WERE OVER 3000

J/KG WITH AN AREA IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG POOLING ALONG A WARM FRONT

PUSHING NWD INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

UPSTREAM...THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS

OF 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES FALLING IN A

30 MINUTE PERIOD. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO TRACK EASTERLY FOR THE

NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNING A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAKE A SLIGHT RIGHT

TURN SO THE THUNDER SHOULD IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA...HITTING

THE ROCKFORD METRO AREA BY AROUND 3PM AND THE CHICAGO METRO AREA

BETWEEN 430PM AND 5PM. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS

REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70MPH. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO

2.5 INCHES AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH

THE POSSIBILITY FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A 30 MINUTE

PERIOD. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN FALLING IN SUCH A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME

MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THE

STORMS...ESPECIALLY AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE

MAIN CONVECTIVE BOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV. THIS LOCATION WOULD BE

MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE ROTATING STRONG UPDRAFTS NECESSARY TO SUPPORT

LARGE HAIL. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS A STRONG DIURNAL

INFLUENCE...SO...EXPECT THAT THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN

INTENSITY TOWARD SUNSET. THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS

IN EFFECT THROUGH 01Z...AT WHICH TIME THE STORMS SHOULD EITHER

WEAKEN OR PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA.

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