PatrickSumner Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Considerable change from the Day 3 to the new Day 2 Much more realistic sounding outlook than the low ball that was put out yesterday. Now we wait for what SPC thinks about Sunday which I think will end up being the most active day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Now we wait for what SPC thinks about Sunday which I think will end up being the most active day. East of here, NY/PA might be the sweet spot for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 East of here, NY/PA might be the sweet spot for Sunday. Those threads are going to be zoos come Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Those threads are going to be zoos come Sunday... Yeah, it will give me something to read at work Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Saturdays outlooks seems improved, the spc tripled the slight risk area, and then on sunday, NY/PA/East OH is going to be a hot spot, much stronger low level jet on the nam, then the last event last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Saturdays outlooks seems improved, the spc tripled the slight risk area, and then on sunday, NY/PA/East OH is going to be a hot spot, much stronger low level jet on the nam, then the last event last week Yeah but weaker upper/mid level dynamics and likely instability, the increase in LL shear/helicity with a stronger LLJ (and favorably vectored out of the SSW) is nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfSpider Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 It would be really nice if this precipitation model verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 It would be really nice if this precipitation model verifies. Well for you I'm sure, here in Central Indiana that would not be good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Dtx mentions the outside chance at severe weather sunday midday if the front slows down enough, which the NAM might be hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I'LL BE WAITING and WATCHING. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Meh, everything needs to speed up or slown down about 6-9 hours. Either that, or a massive MCS needs to develop tonight that will force the cold front further SE for tomorrow. July 4th was about the only severe weather event this season that took place at the perfect time of day around here. Most of the other events have taken place during the overnight hours or the early daylight hours, which looks to happen with this event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 This system has had my interest for nearly a week and it still does. By reading the AFDs, it sounds like areas like SC and SW Wisconsin and NW Illinois might even have to worry about isolated tornadoes early on if the storms start out supercellular. Some models have most of the precip and severe chances passing to the SE, while others have us right in the middle of it all. On second thought, I don't know why the heck every AFD mentions the best forcing/frontogenesis occurring in Southern Wisconsin when just about every model has us in the screwhole. Maybe Madison gets something, but all of a sudden I've become pessimistic about rain even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 That QLCS is really hauling... http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MNZ060&warncounty=MNC053&firewxzone=MNZ060&local_place1=&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Warning SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGMNC019-053-040415- /O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0250.120804T0339Z-120804T0415Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1039 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... SOUTHERN HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 1115 PM CDT * AT 1035 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MAYER...OR ABOUT 23 MILES SOUTH OF BUFFALO...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... PLYMOUTH... MAYER... NORWOOD/YOUNG AMERICA... NEW GERMANY... COLOGNE... WACONIA... ST BONIFACIUS... MINNETRISTA... CARVER... VICTORIA... MOUND... CHASKA... MAPLE PLAIN... ORONO... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. && LAT...LON 4492 9399 4507 9345 4481 9326 4479 9331 4478 9338 4481 9343 4480 9345 4481 9350 4480 9357 4475 9363 4473 9392 TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 257DEG 46KT 4485 9382 WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN $$ SPD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 00z SPC WRF is interesting, if anything.....pops some discrete convection over MI in the evening, but doesn't really have any discernible MCS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 New Day 1 -- 2/15/30 (30 wind) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 00z SPC WRF is interesting, if anything.....pops some discrete convection over MI in the evening, but doesn't really have any discernible MCS... Yeah that was a bit surprising to see that, and SPC is kind of ho-hum in their new day 1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Average August severe potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 9 am and a line of storms is going up in eastern IA. Worried that the outflow pool to the east of the storms will kill off deep convection before it gets here. The outflow boundary which is heading SE towards Madison could become a focus for new storms too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Meso out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Update from MKX: 000 FXUS63 KMKX 041503 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1003 AM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012 .UPDATE...MAKING CHANGES ON TIMING AS IOWA CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE OUR SHOW THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND HAVE ADDED SEVERE TO THE GRIDS AS WELL. AXIS OF 1000 DCAPE INTO SOUTHERN WI...WITH WATER VAPOR/RUC COMBO SHOWING SHORTWAVE NE KS VICINITY SHIFTING NORTHEAST. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 WITH BUILDING CAPES INTO SRN WI. ONLY THIN CIRRUS TO CONTEND SO PLENTY OF HEATING. 0-8 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS...AND SEEING SOME 40 KNOTS 0-6 KM. 0-1 SHEAR MORE SO- SO...TORNADO THREAT MINIMAL BUT NON-ZERO. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 And now a Watch---- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 looks decent for the home crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 looks decent for the home crew When are you returning home? It will be jet lag city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Large amount of lightning being produced by the E. IA MCS, with tops over 60kft. Nice pooling of CAPE (4000 J/KG) and Theta-E ahead of the complex, with decent shear and a nice speed max. Only thing lacking is good DCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 The USPLN feed is lit up across eastern Iowa. I just counted 6,275 lightnings in the last hour in Iowa County alone and it's still updating with more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Got some gusts to probably 50 mph followed by easily the heaviest rain of the year. I wasn't expecting it to be too bad because the red returns on radar diminished before reaching us, but the rain is torrential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 81kts at 2400ft just west of Tipton, IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1259 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... MUSCATINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... WESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... ROCK ISLAND COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... DES MOINES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA... LOUISA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA... NORTHERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 215 PM CDT. * AT 1253 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NICHOLS TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF DANVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTH OF COLUMBUS JUNCTION TO 7 MILES EAST OF MOUNT PLEASANT...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MUSCATINE...KEITHSBURG...ALEDO...ROCK ISLAND...RAPIDS CITY...PORT BYRON...MOLINE...EAST MOLINE...PRINCETON...AND BETTENDORF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 We may have a nice bow echo on our hands... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Cold pool from the previous MCS really screwed southern WI over. At least it's going to rain, can't complain about that this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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