SACRUS Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 You've been pretty much dead on all summer so... I wish that was so. I bought into the runs of the euro last week showing some strong heat this week - not happening aside from some low 90s . Luckily it was only two days and then enough time to adjust. I think the persistence of an overall warmer than normal pattern was the way to go from early on this summer. I didnt think it would trend as warm as it has the last 6 weeks. The heat and drought in the midwest enhanced the periods of heat we have had, because the upper air pattern would have argued for cooler in July than it was. I do think we see a surge of heat late August with a ridge centered over the east. Whether it is aligned to the 1953 analog in timing we'll see. I doubt we come close to that heat spell but something to watch late august. Otherwise the 2002 analog was a good match along with 2006 for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I wish that was so. I bought into the runs of the euro last week showing some strong heat this week - not happening aside from some low 90s . Luckily it was only two days and then enough time to adjust. I think the persistence of an overall warmer than normal pattern was the way to go from early on this summer. I didnt think it would trend as warm as it has the last 6 weeks. The heat and drought in the midwest enhanced the periods of heat we have had, because the upper air pattern would have argued for cooler in July than it was. I do think we see a surge of heat late August with a ridge centered over the east. Whether it is aligned to the 1953 analog in timing we'll see. I doubt we come close to that heat spell but something to watch late august. Otherwise the 2002 analog was a good match along with 2006 for a time. Agreed. The overall warmer than normal summer for the NE is panning out with the extreme heat centered in the Central Plains. My only regret is going normal/slightly cool for July in the Northeast, which as you said, we'll probably see a neg anomaly at H5, but surface warmth has been overperforming. That's certainly been one of the major dangers with analogs recently -- basically have to skew your forecast departures a bit warmer due to persistence over the last year. We'll see when it breaks, but the rest of August looks warm in general. I still don't think we break the mid July heat, but I do see more opportunities for low to mid 90s. September - haven't thought about much yet, but I doubt the theme will change much. We're beginning to see a bit of cooling across North America but by and large, we remain heat central wrt the rest of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Warming up quicky today under mostly sunny skies (so far). Suspect we see widespread 90 readings. Tomorrow looks cloudy with rain and storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 11AM Roundup: TEB: 85 NYC: 84 EWR: 86 LGA: 87 JFK: 82 ISP: 83 NBSWK: 83 BLM: 82 TTN: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 87/66 with 49% humidity right now. Doesn't feel muggy at all today. Beautiful weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 It's nasty here with a dew point of 70 and humidity at 66% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Warming up quicky today under mostly sunny skies (so far). Suspect we see widespread 90 readings. Tomorrow looks cloudy with rain and storms. Looks like too much of a southerly component for many 90s today. EWR and interior NNJ may hit it, but most everyone else will probably top out at 85-88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Euro continues to advertise a MAJOR pattern change for almost the entire USA in the day 6-10 range. Starts off in the middle of the country: And spreads itself east: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 unofficially 90 here but it felt like it was over 100....humidity has been brutal this week, very uncomfortable, much worse than the high heat of July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Euro continues to advertise a MAJOR pattern change for almost the entire USA in the day 6-10 range. Starts off in the middle of the country: And spreads itself east: I hope it doesn't moderate too much or swing more northeast an we don't get the full brunt of it. I bet one of those two will play out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 heavy rain with thunder now imby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 heavy rain with thunder now imby... Yeah had 0.52 in Travis but just 0.03 in Heartland Village section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 0.93 in e'town... more on the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Yeah had 0.52 in Travis but just 0.03 in Heartland Village section. I got 0.33" on Victory and Graham... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 You know what I find funny... Some people forgot that June was not that warm. Departures across the northeast were between -1 to +1 In other words, it was a fairly average June. July was hot, obviously. However, if August finishes at average or even slightly below average, that would make our Meteorological summer end around average as well. Depends on where you live, but since this is the NYC Metro forum I am assuming most people are from the city, island, or NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 You know what I find funny... Some people forgot that June was not that warm. Departures across the northeast were between -1 to +1 In other words, it was a fairly average June. July was hot, obviously. However, if August finishes at average or even slightly below average, that would make our Meteorological summer end around average as well. Depends on where you live, but since this is the NYC Metro forum I am assuming most people are from the city, island, or NNJ It's just that it's been a long stretch of warmth since most of the cold departures in June were early in the month, all of July was warm, and now August has started out warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Today's highs EWR: 90 PHL: 92 TEB: 92 TTN: 88 LGA: 89 ACY: 87 NYC: 88 JFK: 86 ISP: 85 NBNSWK: 92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Today's highs EWR: 90 PHL: 92 TEB: 92 TTN: 88 LGA: 89 ACY: 87 NYC: 88 JFK: 86 ISP: 85 NBNSWK: 92 Was 92 here before the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 made it to 91 here. 6 of 9 days at 90 or above this aug so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 made it to 91 here. 6 of 9 days at 90 or above this aug so far. Luckily relief is in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 made it to 91 here. 6 of 9 days at 90 or above this aug so far. That corridor from your area NE to analog's territory is an oven. Middlesex-Union-Essex seems to be the hot spot of NJ other than immediate PHL area. 3 days of 90F for August here. Today was 87F. At 21 for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 That corridor from your area NE to analog's territory is an oven. Middlesex-Union-Essex seems to be the hot spot of NJ other than immediate PHL area. 3 days of 90F for August here. Today was 87F. At 21 for the season. Where are you in Monmouth? Friends in Lincroft also said they made 91 on home reading. I have to check Freehold and other areas in Mercer and somerset. It may just be the more urban areas, although im surrounded by farms and woods here. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Where are you in Monmouth? Friends in Lincroft also said they made 91 on home reading. I have to check Freehold and other areas in Mercer and somerset. It may just be the more urban areas, although im surrounded by farms and woods here. I I'm in Colts Neck, about 4-5 miles SW of Lincroft. Here are some wunderground station highs: Millstone township - 88, 89, 89 Freehold - 87, 89, Middletown - 86 Aberdeen - 89 BLM - 86 Manalapan station hit 90.0 which is near the Monmouth/Middlesex border, but most of the county fell short today. I'd guess that home station is probably placed poorly or maybe one of less accurate devices. Lincroft to my east couldn't have hit 91 with 87 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 That corridor from your area NE to analog's territory is an oven. Middlesex-Union-Essex seems to be the hot spot of NJ other than immediate PHL area. 3 days of 90F for August here. Today was 87F. At 21 for the season. Just 2 days of 90+ heat this month here. Wind shift to se past couple of days limited heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 You know what I find funny... Some people forgot that June was not that warm. Departures across the northeast were between -1 to +1 In other words, it was a fairly average June. July was hot, obviously. However, if August finishes at average or even slightly below average, that would make our Meteorological summer end around average as well. Depends on where you live, but since this is the NYC Metro forum I am assuming most people are from the city, island, or NNJ people really do not care that early June was cool....they only go by off of what has been happening lately and from late June on its been hot so if you ask people they will say its a hot summer. The cool of the first two weeks does not take the hot label away. How many days of 90 plus...how about 95 plus, the humidity, the amount of uncomfortable days. Thats what people will remember. July will be the symbol of this summer. Unless August is averaging a -3 we are not going to be near average and we already are running above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Euro continues to advertise a nationwide pattern change that starts in the Plains and works its way east across the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 When's the last time we have seen almost the entire country with negative anomalies: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 0z euro ensembles also showing almost full support for the operational as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 problem with the euro though, as the time grows closer, the trough is less pronounced-have seen that time and again this summer. Will be curious to see if future runs mute the trough somewhat....this is still 8-10 days out for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 problem with the euro though, as the time grows closer, the trough is less pronounced-have seen that time and again this summer. Will be curious to see if future runs mute the trough somewhat....this is still 8-10 days out for us While true for our area, the actual setup starts taking shape day 5. The ensembles having it also, makes it more plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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