Sundog Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 the 90 degree heatwave criteria is fine Your average high is basically 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Your average high is basically 90. Most of Somerset County (including Belle Mead) has an average high of around 86 F...maybe 87 F in July. Up around Mine Mountain in Bernardsville (elevation 860 feet)...the mean high is likely closer to 84 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 They need to revise the criteria for heat waves. 90 degrees is only 2-4 degrees above normal depending on the location. That's pathetic. We should consider any temp 35 or below as Arctic outbreaks then. the average for most now is 84-86 so you are talking 4-6 degrees above normal...heatwave is not supposed to be about being above normal it is about being hot....most people feel 90 is a good measure of heat..and to me there is a big difference in comfort from 85 to when we get to 90...then string a few of those together and voila you have a heatwave..and for most people it just has not been 90..we have had low 90s...are you saying 4 days of low 90s shouldnt be a heatwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 the average for most now is 84-86 so you are talking 4-6 degrees above normal...heatwave is not supposed to be about being above normal it is about being hot....most people feel 90 is a good measure of heat..and to me there is a big difference in comfort from 85 to when we get to 90...then string a few of those together and voila you have a heatwave..and for most people it just has not been 90..we have had low 90s...are you saying 4 days of low 90s shouldnt be a heatwave A very good post which I agree with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 If the next 4 weeks turn out below normal, then no it won't be considered a hot summer. But we won't know that for another month right? to me whatever the actual departures come out too, Im going off of the amount of days we have not only hit 90 but 95 plus and even 100. I had a period of 11 straight days of 90 plus. To me those cooler days were the rarity. If you ask the average joe on the street, they will say we have had a hot summer, they will not remember a cool start to June or a few cool days in July. Sure early to mid June was cool but after that it has been hot..to me that defines the summer. Now one week into August we remain in an above normal pattern with another slightly above normal and very very humid week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 to me whatever the actual departures come out too, Im going off of the amount of days we have not only hit 90 but 95 plus and even 100. I had a period of 11 straight days of 90 plus. To me those cooler days were the rarity. If you ask the average joe on the street, they will say we have had a hot summer, they will not remember a cool start to June or a few cool days in July. Sure early to mid June was cool but after that it has been hot..to me that defines the summer. Now one week into August we remain in an above normal pattern with another slightly above normal and very very humid week ahead. It isn't going to be humid at all later tomorrow, all of Tuesday, and early Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 To me a heatwave should be memorable otherwise it diminishes the impact of the word. Am I going to remember 3 days in the low 90s with low humidity if we see 20-30 of those a summer? Does it impact people the same as 3 days between 97 and 102 with humidity, heat advisories and air quality alerts? Of course not. If you want to call it a heatwave fine but I like to set the bar a little bit higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 anything over 90 is hot are you denying that...just so happens this year some of us have had 5 of them and some days with extreme heat....what about years that dont a heatwave is a heatwave, how many years have they used the same definition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 To me a heatwave should be memorable otherwise it diminishes the impact of the word. Am I going to remember 3 days in the low 90s with low humidity if we see 20-30 of those a summer? Does it impact people the same as 3 days between 97 and 102 with humidity, heat advisories and air quality alerts? Of course not. If you want to call it a heatwave fine but I like to set the bar a little bit higher Humidity is of course a factor but I think having 90 F as a threshold (or 3 consecutive days reaching that mark) for a heat wave makes good sense because it is at around 90 F that significant discomfort for many human beings begins to set in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Humidity is of course a factor but I think having 90 F as a threshold (or 3 consecutive days reaching that mark) for a heat wave makes good sense because it is at around 90 F that significant discomfort for many human beings begins to set in... And the 90 criteria works well in this part of the country, because in this part of the country, more often than not, it is humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 today's highs PHL: 98 EWR: 95 TTN: 92 LGA: 91 ACY: 91 TEB: 96 NYC: 91 JFK: 87 ISP: 85 NBRNSWK: 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 EWR upto 17 days at or above 95 so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Looking at the next week to 10 days (thru 8/16), we should see increased rain/storm chances with temps overall at or above normal,. We could see the next 90 degree readings wed - fri pending on clouds and rain. By the end of the week and into the weekend (8/10 - 8/12) we will likely be under the influences of a cutoff/ULL that will slowly move through the northeast. The period should see increased humidity but be dominated by clouds/storm chances. When on the warm side of the associated front, temps could heat up under enough sun (fri). Beyond there into the week of the 13th, guidance is hinting at the next expansion of the western atlantic ridge which should sustain a warm/more humid flow with increased rain and storm chances. In the longer range it will be instresting if TS Florence or other will influence the region. Also, which of the analogs will lead the pack to close the month - 2006 heat ended by mid month, 2002 heat ends by the 20th or a 1953-like final torch to end the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Looking at the next week to 10 days (thru 8/16), we should see increased rain/storm chances with temps overall at or above normal,. We could see the next 90 degree readings wed - fri pending on clouds and rain. By the end of the week and into the weekend (8/10 - 8/12) we will likely be under the influences of a cutoff/ULL that will slowly move through. The period should see increased humidity but be dominated by clouds/storm chances. When on the warm side of the associated front, temps could heat up under enough sun (fri). Beyond there into the week of the 13th, guidance is hinting at the next expansion of the western atlantic ridge which should sustain a warm/more humid flow with increased rain and storm chances. In the longer range it will be instresting if TS Florence or other will influence the region. Also, which of the analogs will lead the pack to close the month - 2006 heat ended by mid month, 2002 heat ends by the 20th or a 1953-like final torch to end the month? No sign in the long range of the w atlantic ridge breaking down? These airmasses have been absolutely brutal. Wouidnt mind a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 No sign in the long range of the w atlantic ridge breaking down? These airmasses have been absolutely brutal. Wouidnt mind a change. I think the wild card will be ts florence, but overall onshore flow/rain should limit heat but keep things quite muggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 I think the wild card will be ts florence, but overall onshore flow/rain should limit heat but keep things quite muggy. Agreed. As we've talked about before, August is looking muggy/humid/wet overall, probably w/ higher mins and storms the bigger story. Extreme heat on the order of 95+ should stay SW of us IMO. Of course the Newark tarmac may very well hit 95 into Halloween at the rate they're going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 95 here again at Elizabeth. T-storm with 0.40" of rain and 34 MPH winds tonight. No wind damage here, but near EWR (only 2 miles from my locale), numerous reports of wind damage near rt 1 and 9, with 60 MPH wind at EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 EWR upto 17 days at or above 95 so far this season. All kidding aside, that is a seriously disgusting statistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Humidity is of course a factor but I think having 90 F as a threshold (or 3 consecutive days reaching that mark) for a heat wave makes good sense because it is at around 90 F that significant discomfort for many human beings begins to set in... I think what people are saying is that 90s seem common enough in the summer that 3 days of 90 just doesn't stand out. 3 days of 93+ would stand out more. Not arguing that 90 is hot, but the term heat wave implies something special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 I think what people are saying is that 90s seem common enough in the summer that 3 days of 90 just doesn't stand out. 3 days of 93+ would stand out more. Not arguing that 90 is hot, but the term heat wave implies something special. This is all subjective... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 This is all subjective... Agree. Each side of the argument has some basis, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 You might have a point...even during 2010-11...considered a close to normal winter temperature wise......KNYC / Central Park only went below 20 F on 12 days...while out at Islip on Long Island...not really a particularly cold spot but certainly cooler than the city....they dropped below 20 F on 31 days that winter. Yes. A number of factors have caused this, and they are only getting worse... I love cold and snow, but it's obvious that extremely cold winters are becoming increasingly rare. Snowfall has increased alongside our precipitation, but that will only hold for another decade or two as temperatures continue to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Snowfall has increased alongside our precipitation, This is an inaccurate statement in my opinion. The winters of 2009-2011 had well above normal snowfall across the northern hemisphere in conjunction with colder than normal temperatures. The snowy winters were partially due to plentiful precipitation, but without cold temperatures, increased precip doesn't mean much. Additionally, if I remember correctly, measured RH levels actually decreased a bit below normal for the northern hemisphere in the winters of 2009-2011. Hence the above normal snow / snow pack was due in large part to the colder than normal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 This is an inaccurate statement in my opinion. The winters of 2009-2011 had well above normal snowfall across the northern hemisphere in conjunction with colder than normal temperatures. The snowy winters were partially due to plentiful precipitation, but without cold temperatures, increased precip doesn't mean much. Additionally, if I remember correctly, measured RH levels actually decreased a bit below normal for the northern hemisphere in the winters of 2009-2011. Hence the above normal snow / snow pack was due in large part to the colder than normal temperatures. RH anomalies for 2009, 2010, 2011 winters -- mostly below normal across the nern hemisphere, yet snowier than normal due to cold temperatures: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 I think what people are saying is that 90s seem common enough in the summer that 3 days of 90 just doesn't stand out. 3 days of 93+ would stand out more. Not arguing that 90 is hot, but the term heat wave implies something special. I think it's relative to the geographic region too. In the deep South, where average highs are around 90F for July/August, 90 degree days aren't anything special, since they average 40-50+ of them. Down there, I would say 94-95 should be the heat wave criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Austinwx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 95 was traditionally the "heat wave" temperature growing up in Birmingham, AL. Of course, even outside of heat waves the afternoon highs are always 85 or higher from mid-May through September (with high humidity...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Temps are rising again after leveling off at 1pm. Highs of the day are at 4pm so far: NYC: 85 LGA: 87 JFK: 87 EWR: 89 TEB: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 This is an inaccurate statement in my opinion. The winters of 2009-2011 had well above normal snowfall across the northern hemisphere in conjunction with colder than normal temperatures. The snowy winters were partially due to plentiful precipitation, but without cold temperatures, increased precip doesn't mean much. Additionally, if I remember correctly, measured RH levels actually decreased a bit below normal for the northern hemisphere in the winters of 2009-2011. Hence the above normal snow / snow pack was due in large part to the colder than normal temperatures. I think he's saying that while the world warms, we get increased precip and temps. Since these variables aren't linear but do have a clear trend, sometimes we'll get a colder than normal winter coupled with high precip. Eventually all the precip in the world won't mean a thing since even our "colder" winters won't be cold enough to sustain much snow at all. Right now we are still in the intermediate phase, where cold winters are still cold enough for the increased precip to fall as a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 4 day heatwave comes to an end as I only reach 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 0z euro is below Upton's guidance with regards to temps from Fri-Sun. For NYC euro has: Friday: 80-82 Saturday: 74-76 Sunday: 76-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.