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August 2012 Observations and Discussions

NEG NAO

By NEG NAO,
in New York City Metro

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

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Sort of. Those look south of where the NAM had them. The NAM had them in Middlesex and maybe parts of Monmouth counties, these are down in Burlco area.

Everyone ran off the beach in seaside heights thinking the storm was heading their way and its going in the opposite direction -lol too bad someone didn't have a radar going on their puter That storm had a severe warning issued for Lakewood/Howell area

http://www.exit82.com/seacam/cam1.html

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

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Interesting AFD out of Upton this afternoon looks like we have the potential to make up some precip deficits again rather quickly

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE SUNDAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS

DEVELOP DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES

ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT

MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. CONDITIONS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AS

TEMPS CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S...AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC...ALONG WITH

SFC DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HEAT INDEX

CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC AND THE URBANIZED AREAS OF NE

NJ...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...COMBINED WITH INCREASING SURF HEIGHTS...

WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN

BEACHES ON SUNDAY.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS

WEAK TROUGH/SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...BUT MORE ORGANIZED

ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE

COLD FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY MOVES INTO WESTERN NY/PA DURING THE

DAY SUNDAY. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK

INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON...AND THAT

LOOKS TO BE A TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SOME RATHER STRONG TO SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES WILL BE OVER

2000 J/KG IN SOME PARTS OF NJ AND INTO NYC...ALONG WITH A LIFTED

INDEX CLOSE TO -7 C AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS. AS THIS COMPLEX

COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY

EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND

COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING

WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMES THE

LOSS OF THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE DAMAGING

WIND THREAT...THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT FOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/SMALL

STREAM FLOODING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH PWATS RANGING FROM

2.25-2.5 INCHES...THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO

FEED ANY THUNDERSTORMS...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THINK

THE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW ANY STORM TO LINGER

OVER ANY ONE AREA...BUT TRAINING OF CELLS WILL LEAD TO FLASH

FLOODING.

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Analog96

Analog96

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Everyone ran off the beach in seaside heights thinking the storm was heading their way and its going in the opposite direction -lol too bad someone didn't have a radar going on their puter That storm had a severe warning issued for Lakewood/Howell area

http://www.exit82.com/seacam/cam1.html

Lol, I saw that. The storm moved NW and is weakening now.

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Analog96

Analog96

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lol the sea-breeze is from the massive ocean to the SE of the airport, not the little bay to its east.

Go take a course in microclimates. I have no idea why you are even allowed to post here anymore! If they "get a seabreeze from that massive ocean to the SE", then why don't I get sea breezes the same days? Tell me, smartass!

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Dsnowx53

Dsnowx53

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If a SE sfc flow is strong enough, it can penetrate pretty far inland. There have been times, especially in the spring months when the ocean is colder, that New Brunswick has been several to 10 degrees cooler than KSMQ because of the onshore flow making it to New Brunswick, but not to KSMQ.

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Analog96

Analog96

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If a SE sfc flow is strong enough, it can penetrate pretty far inland. There have been times, especially in the spring months when the ocean is colder, that New Brunswick has been several to 10 degrees cooler than KSMQ because of the onshore flow making it to New Brunswick, but not to KSMQ.

How far is New Brunswick to SMQ? A lot farther than the 1.5 mi between my station and KEWR.

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NorEaster27

NorEaster27

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If a SE sfc flow is strong enough, it can penetrate pretty far inland. There have been times, especially in the spring months when the ocean is colder, that New Brunswick has been several to 10 degrees cooler than KSMQ because of the onshore flow making it to New Brunswick, but not to KSMQ.

Agreed, its also a function of terrain as even the smallest increase in elevation could prevent the sea-breeze from making more grounds inland. The airport is basically at sea-level and a SE wind should be able to get into EWR with weak BL winds.

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NorEaster27

NorEaster27

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Go take a course in microclimates. I have no idea why you are even allowed to post here anymore! If they "get a seabreeze from that massive ocean to the SE", then why don't I get sea breezes the same days? Tell me, smartass!

Could be many factors, I dont know your station or where you live so I cant say.

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Analog96

Analog96

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Agreed, its also a function of terrain as even the smallest increase in elevation could prevent the sea-breeze from making more grounds inland. The airport is basically at sea-level and a SE wind should be able to get into EWR with weak BL winds.

The elevation where I live is 17 feet, got anything better?

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NorEaster27

NorEaster27

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The elevation where I live is 17 feet, got anything better?

which makes a difference plus you are SW of the airport where a SE wind has to traverse SI before reaching you, makes sense you would get less of a sea-breeze. A SE wind for EWR travels over much more water compared to a SE wind at your location and I'm not just talking "newark bay"

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SACRUS

SACRUS

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Today's highs. Clouds capped temps from about 1pm onward. Tomorrow more of the same, if its sunny enough we'll get to 90 for a third straight day.

PHL: 91

EWR: 93

TTN: 90

LGA: 90

ACY: 88

TEB: 93

NYC: 87

JFK: 86

ISP: 84

NBRNSWK: 92

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Diego

Diego

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Go take a course in microclimates. I have no idea why you are even allowed to post here anymore! If they "get a seabreeze from that massive ocean to the SE", then why don't I get sea breezes the same days? Tell me, smartass!

I hope you realize I was joking before (as previously discussed, the afternoon drop in temps. there in the instances cited in recent, earlier posts would not be attributable to cloud cover). But looking at the layout below, could EWR be influenced by a "bay breeze" originating from the Upper New York Bay, which is only about 4 miles to it's east, only having to traverse over the low level land of Bayonne? I certainly believe in microclimates but Newark Bay, in and of itself, is only 1 mile wide and probably fairly shallow. On the other hand, the Upper Bay is 3 to 4 miles wide and cooler, and statistics clearly support the effect of this bay on lowering summer temp. averages at the former National Weather Service station at the Battery in lower Manhattan. I can also confirm this from personal experiences living adjacent to the lower portion of it.

Any breeze would certainly not originate from the Atlantic - the distance from the Atlantic would be too far and it would be on the wrong side of EWR (being to it's SE), and the area and extent of land and higher terrain of SI would block such a breeze,

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=Newark,+NJ&hl=en&ll=40.677253,-74.080124&spn=0.194759,0.307961&sll=40.697488,-73.979681&sspn=0.778802,1.231842&oq=newark&hnear=Newark,+Essex,+New+Jersey&t=m&z=12

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Diego

Diego

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If a SE sfc flow is strong enough, it can penetrate pretty far inland. There have been times, especially in the spring months when the ocean is colder, that New Brunswick has been several to 10 degrees cooler than KSMQ because of the onshore flow making it to New Brunswick, but not to KSMQ.

But I believe the onshore flow you're referring to would be more than just a sea breeze. It would be the result of a pressure gradient causing a region wide flow out of the east or southeast.

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Analog96

Analog96

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I hope you realize I was joking before (as previously discussed, the afternoon drop in temps. there in the instances cited in recent, earlier posts would not be attributable to cloud cover). But looking at the layout below, could EWR be influenced by a "bay breeze" originating from the Upper New York Bay, which is only about 4 miles to it's east, only having to traverse over the low level land of Bayonne? I certainly believe in microclimates but Newark Bay, in and of itself, is only 1 mile wide and probably fairly shallow. On the other hand, the Upper Bay is 3 to 4 miles wide and cooler, and statistics clearly support the effect of this bay on lowering summer temp. averages at the former National Weather Service station at the Battery in lower Manhattan. I can also confirm this from personal experiences living adjacent to the lower portion of it.

Any breeze would certainly not originate from the Atlantic - the distance from the Atlantic would be too far and it would be on the wrong side of EWR (being to it's SE), and the area and extent of land and higher terrain of SI would block such a breeze,

http://maps.google.c...Jersey&t=m&z=12

This is a very good possibility, actually, since Bayonne probably only peaks at around 30 feet. To the East of me would be more land, and just South of that is Arthur Kill, which is probably less than 1000 feet wide. Believe it or not, I work within 50 feet of the Goethals Bridge, and at my job, only for maybe a two-block radius, you can get a breeze off the Arthur Kill, which can lower the temp a few degrees. You typically see cars driving around with their windows closed when that happens (because of the stench)!

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Analog96

Analog96

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But I believe the onshore flow you're referring to would be more than just a sea breeze. It would be the result of a pressure gradient causing a region wide flow out of the east or southeast.

I hate when people describe typical gradient flow as a "sea breeze". A lot of mets do it, as well, and it really bothers me. This type of flow is "onshore flow" around a system or system(s), and is not a "sea breeze", which is caused on light flow days from a temperature difference. Another thing that bothers me is when someone says a mix of rain and freezing rain, but we'll save that one for the winter.

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Diego

Diego

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I feel sorry for the people who live on LI, coastal Conn. or coastal NJ. Look at those dps. SST's must have reached the mid 70s.

1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2012

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

CENTRAL PARK MOCLDY 80 70 71 SW5 30.11R

LAGUARDIA APRT MOCLDY 83 70 64 S6 30.07S

KENNEDY INTL CLOUDY 78 74 87 S6 30.10R

NEWARK/LIBERTY CLOUDY 81 71 71 SW6 30.08R

TETERBORO CLOUDY 81 70 69 CALM 30.07R

WHITE PLAINS PTCLDY 75 72 88 CALM 30.09R

FARMINGDALE CLOUDY 78 75 90 SW9 30.10R

ISLIP CLOUDY 78 75 90 SW10 30.08S

SHIRLEY CLOUDY 78 75 90 S8 30.10S

WESTHAMPTON CLOUDY 77 75 93 SW6 30.11R

MONTAUK POINT N/A 76 74 93 SW6 30.11R

NEWBURGH NOT AVBL

MONTGOMERY PTCLDY 73 71 93 CALM 30.08R

POUGHKEEPSIE CLEAR 77 72 84 CALM 30.06R

ALBANY CLEAR 78 70 76 CALM 30.06R

TETERBORO CLOUDY 81 70 69 CALM 30.07R

CALDWELL CLOUDY 80 70 71 CALM 30.08R

MORRISTOWN CLOUDY 75 70 83 CALM 30.09R

SOMERVILLE CLOUDY 73 70 90 CALM 30.07R

SUSSEX PTCLDY 74 72 93 CALM 30.09R FOG

ANDOVER NOT AVBL

TRENTON CLOUDY 75 70 84 CALM 30.09R

MILLVILLE CLOUDY 78 75 90 CALM 30.10R

ATLANTIC CITY CLOUDY 78 73 84 MISG 30.11R

WRIGHTSTOWN CLOUDY 76 72 87 S3 30.08R

TOMS RIVER NOT AVBL

BELMAR CLOUDY 79 73 83 SW6 30.11R

PHILADELPHIA CLOUDY 80 72 76 SE5 30.10R

ALLENTOWN PTCLDY 77 69 76 CALM 30.09R

SCRANTON CLEAR 75 68 78 CALM 30.10R

BRADLEY INTL PTCLDY 79 72 79 S6 30.07R

HARTFORD PTCLDY 78 72 81 S5 30.07R

DANBURY PTCLDY 76 71 85 CALM 30.11R

WTRBRY/OXFORD MOCLDY 73 70 88 CALM 30.13R

BRIDGEPORT CLOUDY 79 73 82 CALM 30.08R

MERIDEN MOCLDY 76 72 87 CALM 30.08S

NEW HAVEN MOCLDY 77 73 87 CALM 30.09R

CHESTER NOT AVBL

GROTON CLOUDY 73 70 90 CALM 30.09R FOG

WILLIMANTIC MOCLDY 78 72 81 CALM 30.10R

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Dsnowx53

Dsnowx53

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I hate it when people seem to think that sea-breezes are only at the sea.

They originate from the sea, but they can travel several miles inland or more.

"In the afternoon, when the boundary layer heating over land is at its maximum, the sea

breeze is normally at its most intense, and can penetrate tens of kilometers - in some

cases, even over a hundred kilometers - inland."

http://kkd.ou.edu/METR4433_Spring_2011/Land_Sea_Breezes.pdf

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