ag3 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 I'm on the North Fork of LI. Temp only 71 degrees. Gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Hit a low of 60.1, as my poor radiating conditions once again stopped me from dropping. Definitely a cool day today though, I have a NWS forecast high of 78F but it's 70.2/60 so I don't expect we'll get there. NWS has 68/57 tomorrow which is really cool for mid-August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Hit a low of 60.1, as my poor radiating conditions once again stopped me from dropping. Definitely a cool day today though, I have a NWS forecast high of 78F but it's 70.2/60 so I don't expect we'll get there. NWS has 68/57 tomorrow which is really cool for mid-August. Rain coupled with an already decently cool airmass will keep it cool tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Got down to 54.1 this morning. Coolest morning since June. Now up to 74.3 and overcast but I doubt we reach the NWS forecasted high of 82 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Down to 44 last night in the Catskills, in Howe caverns now outside its around 76. In the caves it's 52 year round. It was clouding up in the Catskills but as we drove north it cleared up got warmer, north is good today as we are warmer than NYC right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 EWR hit 59 this morning. Has to be the first time in a while the forecast low actually busted too high. The forecast was 62 and I figured they'd stay in the middle 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Forgot to mention that I hit 52 Degrees last night. Amazingly cool and beautiful night. Reminded me of an early Fall morning. It is just a reminder that Summer is coming to a close. Meteorological Fall starts in less than two weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Mount Holly is significantly warmer than Upton by nearly 10 degrees for tomorrow. You can clearly see where the Mt Holly CWA and the Upton CWA is just by looking at the forecasted max temperatures for tomorrow. It should be interesting to see which NWS is closer to reality. I'd assume by that map that Upton is siding with the ECM/NAM, with cloudy skies and rain, while the GFS and CMC have less rain and are warmer, with the GFS showing low 80s in SE NY. The NAM's probably overdone as usual though, especially the 6z run. Most of the rain looks to stay south/east, although there's still widespread cloud cover which should keep temperatures below 80 degrees. IMO temps tomorrow should end up closer to Upton's outlook, with at least some 60s for highs, and with the rain likely more widespread further east/south the cooler daytime (not 24-hour) maximum temps would be further east, rather than west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 I'm just surprised that Upton dropped tomorrow's highs so drastically. They went from upper 70s/low 80s to upper 60s overnight. I'd assume by that map that Upton is siding with the ECM/NAM, with cloudy skies and rain, while the GFS and CMC have less rain and are warmer, with the GFS showing low 80s in SE NY. The NAM's probably overdone as usual though, especially the 6z run. Most of the rain looks to stay south/east, although there's still widespread cloud cover which should keep temperatures below 80 degrees. IMO temps tomorrow should end up closer to Upton's outlook, with at least some 60s for highs, and with the rain likely more widespread further east/south the cooler daytime (not 24-hour) maximum temps would be further east, rather than west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 I'm just surprised that Upton dropped tomorrow's highs so drastically. They went from upper 70s/low 80s to upper 60s overnight. I'm also a bit surprised, I thought they'd gradually lower the forecast highs with each update, not jump from the warm scenario to the cool scenario. Although I don't see tomorrow as a washout, the clouds/some rain should keep temps at least in the lower half of the 70s IMO, with some 60s especially in the rainier areas further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Only made it to 73 here today with the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 quite frankly the mets and forecasters deserve a serious spanking for an epic bust today....calling for plenty of sun with some clouds mixed in, it was pretty much a cloudy cool day quite the opposite of the beach day it would appear to be...ironically Saturday was perhaps one of the best beach days of the season thus far and the mets screwed that one up with their calls of lingering clouds and showers. to me its disappointing that forecasts cannot get things right even within 12 hours...and tomorrow too...so much up in the air, is it going to rain or not, I am hearing 10 different forecasts...will it be a work day or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 quite frankly the mets and forecasters deserve a serious spanking for an epic bust today....calling for plenty of sun with some clouds mixed in, it was pretty much a cloudy cool day quite the opposite of the beach day it would appear to be...ironically Saturday was perhaps one of the best beach days of the season thus far and the mets screwed that one up with their calls of lingering clouds and showers. to me its disappointing that forecasts cannot get things right even within 12 hours...and tomorrow too...so much up in the air, is it going to rain or not, I am hearing 10 different forecasts...will it be a work day or not? As of now I'd say it's looking more like no widespread rain. The NAM/ECM/CMC went back to the further east solutions, showing breaks in the clouds, highs in the 70s and scattered showers in western/eastern areas, while the GFS still hasn't changed much. Upton also partially reversed their morning update changes this afternoon, going back to a lower chance of showers with highs in the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 As of now I'd say it's looking more like no widespread rain. The NAM/ECM/CMC went back to the further east solutions, showing breaks in the clouds, highs in the 70s and scattered showers in western/eastern areas, while the GFS still hasn't changed much. Upton also partially reversed their morning update changes this afternoon, going back to a lower chance of showers with highs in the 70s. That's why it's not a good idea to do what Upton did, and jump so drastically from one forecast cycle to the next. Now, they have to backpedal, and they look foolish for doing so. If they had half-stepped, they could have just adjusted it this morning, and then have left it exactly the same this afternoon, and it would look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 quite frankly the mets and forecasters deserve a serious spanking for an epic bust today....calling for plenty of sun with some clouds mixed in, it was pretty much a cloudy cool day quite the opposite of the beach day it would appear to be...ironically Saturday was perhaps one of the best beach days of the season thus far and the mets screwed that one up with their calls of lingering clouds and showers. to me its disappointing that forecasts cannot get things right even within 12 hours...and tomorrow too...so much up in the air, is it going to rain or not, I am hearing 10 different forecasts...will it be a work day or not? I was on the beach near Orient Point and it was sunny and beautiful in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 quite frankly the mets and forecasters deserve a serious spanking for an epic bust today....calling for plenty of sun with some clouds mixed in, it was pretty much a cloudy cool day quite the opposite of the beach day it would appear to be...ironically Saturday was perhaps one of the best beach days of the season thus far and the mets screwed that one up with their calls of lingering clouds and showers. to me its disappointing that forecasts cannot get things right even within 12 hours...and tomorrow too...so much up in the air, is it going to rain or not, I am hearing 10 different forecasts...will it be a work day or not? Weren't you expecting sunny and dry after Monday? Now there's scattered showers in the forecast for both Tuesday and Wednesday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Big bust here today--forecast was for sunny and 81--it clouded over by 10am and only got to 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Rain coupled with an already decently cool airmass will keep it cool tomorrow. doubt anyone sees more than a shower tomorrow at best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 doubt anyone sees more than a shower tomorrow at best... Yea I bet that 68 tomorrow for nzucker is going to bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Yea I bet that 68 tomorrow for nzucker is going to bust low. They've changed it to 74F because of the lesser chance of rain. Judging from recent model runs, there is still some conflicting data on when it is going to rain. The 18z GFS has no real rain tomorrow with the storm well offshore, but brings in some showers on Tuesday with about .1" QPF for the metro area. However, the 0z NAM has some light rain tomorrow and then portrays Tuesday as an entirely dry day. It seems to be a complex forecast because there's lift in the atmosphere from both a reinforcing cold front that is drifting southeast, and the potential development of a weak coastal low that could involve Atlantic moisture. Today had a forecast high of 78F in Dobbs Ferry and only hit 72.2F...it's a comfortable night now at 67.4/60. There were a lot of busts today around the metro area with some parts of New Jersey expecting 80s and only getting into the low-mid 70s. We could definitely see some busts on Tuesday if the GFS verifies and we get some real rainfall. Most forecasts are for low-mid 80s around NYC metro, and I doubt we'd see it that warm if there were clouds and showers since 850s are only around 10C and a weak cold front looks to be moving towards us. Central Park's departure is slowly slipping. After the first two weeks of August, we were around +3, and we're now at +1.9. With a high of 74 and a low of 62 today, the departure is -7. NWS has a -7 tomorrow as well with the forecast of 73/64. That would bring us down to around +1.2, and then we have to hope we see showers and clouds Tuesday. With average temperatures for the rest of the week, and models showing a sharper cold front possible at month's end, I forecast the month to finish around +0.8 departure. Assuming that is true, the summer finishes a little under +1, which isn't too bad. Essentially a normal summer with a cooler than normal June, a hot and dry July, and a very average August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Forecast is for upper 60's here tomorrow with showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Currently weather looks pretty nice from captree state park. Going out fishing this morning so hopefully ill do pretty well. Doesnt look like there will be any rain this morning according to this mornings radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 6z NAM has highs near 80 with no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Weren't you expecting sunny and dry after Monday? Now there's scattered showers in the forecast for both Tuesday and Wednesday lol. no Im back to sunny for Tues and Wed with low to mid 80s....and actually have seen more sun this morning than I did all day yesterday, not expecting any rain from this here..sprinkle at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 no Im back to sunny for Tues and Wed with low to mid 80s....and actually have seen more sun this morning than I did all day yesterday, not expecting any rain from this here..sprinkle at most Beautiful morning here. Just some clouds to my south and east which are not really obstructing the sun. Pretty much sunny skies at this point. For people that were expecting rain this is a hell of a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Where's the rain that was forecasted for today? Another cool morning. Love this weather =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Models lost the rain yesterday morning and as a result temps will be near 80 degrees today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Monthly departures through 8/19: NYC: +1.5 LGA: +2.4 JFK: +2.1 ISP: +2.0 BDR: +2.6 EWR: +1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 8/19 Dailies (clouds in the way kind of day). Departures were about equal to the 7/19 - 7/20 cool down. Clouds doing their thing after some cool morning lows. Suspect this will be or match the coolest (departure-wise) of this cool down. TEB: 77/60 (-6) NYC: 74/62 (-7) EWR: 76/59 (-8) LGA: 76/66 (-5) JFK: 77/63 (-5) ISP: 75/60 (-5) NBNSWK: 75/53 (-10) TTN: 73/57 (-9) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Forecast is for upper 60's here tomorrow with showers. BUST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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