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August 2012 Observations and Discussions


NEG NAO

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I think tomorrow will be the last 90F opportunity for the rest of August in the Northeast. Next week looks near normal (avg highs now low to mid 80s) with potentially another shot of cooling in the NWLY flow aloft for late August. Much like July, the last 10 days of August should bring down the monthly departure, but it'll still finish above normal for August.

September has the highest correlation w/ the AMO of any month in our area, so there is a fairly high probability of the warmer than normal pattern continuing. The blocking pattern should persist into at least early September, but that does not mean a change to cool. Often times the late summer -NAO yields a positive height field from the north atlantic SW to the East Coast, connecting w/ the SE ridge. My thinking is we'll see the mean trough position in the Great Lakes or Upper MW for September.

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whats the long range look like, heard some chatter on my local weather station that perhaps the pattern is looking good for some heat to return the last week in August into early September

Not sure about sustained 'heat' yet but after the cool down 8/19 - 8/23, we should see above normal temps return by the 25th. I wouldnt doubt another heat spike within the last week of the month. Guidance does show the heat building back east into the plains and Mid west by the middle of next week.

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I think tomorrow will be the last 90F opportunity for the rest of August in the Northeast. Next week looks near normal (avg highs now low to mid 80s) with potentially another shot of cooling in the NWLY flow aloft for late August. Much like July, the last 10 days of August should bring down the monthly departure, but it'll still finish above normal for August.

September has the highest correlation w/ the AMO of any month in our area, so there is a fairly high probability of the warmer than normal pattern continuing. The blocking pattern should persist into at least early September, but that does not mean a change to cool. Often times the late summer -NAO yields a positive height field from the north atlantic SW to the East Coast, connecting w/ the SE ridge. My thinking is we'll see the mean trough position in the Great Lakes or Upper MW for September.

Im not sure about the 25th to 31st period, I wouldnt doubt another heat spike in that timeframe. Not sure yet but you can see guidance hinting at heights rising and some heat building back from the Rockies/Plains into the MW next week. More flat flow with elevated heights may usher some of that east to close August. I still think we see above normal precip.

8/19 - 8/23 should drop most sites to within the +1 to +1.5 range for the month then the last 7 days may build positives back toards +2 range for most sites. It'll be interesting to track. Today was just perfect.

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Guest Pamela

81 at LGA while almost everyone else is in the 60s... Oh LGA you're too funny lol.

76 F @ LGA @ 4:00 AM....Westhampton reports 58 F @ the same time...temp has a hard time going down after dark in northern Queens for as long as I can remember.

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76 F @ LGA @ 4:00 AM....Westhampton reports 58 F @ the same time...temp has a hard time going down after dark in northern Queens for as long as I can remember.

The problem is I was 75 when LGA recorded that 81...no 60s obviously but I am in fact only 3 miles due east of the airport. The part of Queens west of the airport was probably much closer to that a LGA reading.

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we could be dealing with some clouds between 1 and 2. Before then it will be close if temps can reach 90. We'll have to see how high we get by noon. still think tomorrow the brunt of the rains and storms are done by early afternoon with just lingering clouds. Not the bext day but not a wash out.

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Evening storms once again dissipated to my west and reformed to my east. It seems my area has been screwed with almost every storm event this month; this actually reflects in the month to date precip as the area near far NE NJ and extreme SE NY has one of the lowest rain totals in the tri-state area. After the current event there doesn't seem to be anything widespread upcoming this week depending on what happens on Monday with the potential coastal low the CMC is likely exaggerating. It's no drought and certainly not a "bust" given that it's happening on a very localized scale, but for once it'd be nice to see some decent rainfall around here.

post-1753-0-66718400-1345251597_thumb.pn

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Evening storms once again dissipated to my west and reformed to my east. It seems my area has been screwed with almost every storm event this month; this actually reflects in the month to date precip as the area near far NE NJ and extreme SE NY has one of the lowest rain totals in the tri-state area. After the current event there doesn't seem to be anything widespread upcoming this week depending on what happens on Monday with the potential coastal low the CMC is likely exaggerating. It's no drought and certainly not a "bust" given that it's happening on a very localized scale, but for once it'd be nice to see some decent rainfall around here.

post-1753-0-66718400-1345251597_thumb.pn

Fwiw...at my station anyway the maps on the low side... 3.50 here.
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Fwiw...at my station anyway the maps on the low side... 3.50 here.

The map does seem to be on the low side occasionally from what I've noticed. Considering that I've been missed by most storm outbreaks this month, it's a bit closer to reality for my area though. I don't have my own rainfall measurements, although local stations on Wunderground have monthly totals between 1.25" and 1.5". The total sharply increases just to the west in areas that received much more rain on 8/10 and 8/15.

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I still think we may capture some more late 90s readings (maybe not the park) between 8/25 and 9/3

There seems to be a decent chance of at least a few more 90s IMO also around this time frame, maybe a bit after 8/25, as the persistent area of lower heights above the NE since about 8/6 weakens, with the 6z GFS fully closing the gap between the eastern ridge and the western ridge, which is less amplified by this point. I'm not sure if it would be any heat wave (3+ consecutive days) or just occasional 90s, but I don't think we've seen the last 90s readings this year.

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