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August 2012 Observations and Discussions


NEG NAO

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Looks like forward motion of cf has slowed down considerably, now just east of the Nassau/Suffolk Line, extending on a n/s axis through central CT, MA and the Ct River Valley. Contrast dps on west (good) side and east (bad) side of it. This aligns well with the visible satellite animation, which also shows clouds to west due to cool pool aloft.

1200 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

Good side.

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

CENTRAL PARK SUNNY 84 61 45 CALM 29.94F

LAGUARDIA APRT MOSUNNY 84 61 45 NW6 29.90F

KENNEDY INTL MOSUNNY 83 61 47 SW10 29.92S

NEWARK/LIBERTY MOSUNNY 84 64 50 VRB5 29.91F

TETERBORO SUNNY 84 61 45 VRB5 29.90F

WHITE PLAINS SUNNY 81 59 47 CALM 29.92S

FARMINGDALE SUNNY 83 63 50 N6 29.91F

DANBURY SUNNY 81 61 50 VRB6 29.93S

PITTSFIELD MOSUNNY 78 64 61 SW8 29.91F

BURLINGTON VT MOSUNNY 79 63 57 SW12 29.87F

Bad Side.

ISLIP PTSUNNY 82 70 66 S9 29.90S

SHIRLEY PTSUNNY 80 71 74 SW10 29.92S

WESTHAMPTON PTSUNNY 81 70 69 S9 29.93F

MONTAUK POINT N/A 80 74 81 VRB6 29.93F

BOSTON CLOUDY 78 70 76 S9 29.90F

BEVERLY CLOUDY 78 71 79 S6 29.89F

LAWRENCE CLOUDY 80 69 69 SW5 29.91F

BEDFORD CLOUDY 77 70 79 S6 29.88F

BLUE HILL N/A 77 69 76 SW9 29.91F

NORWOOD CLOUDY 81 70 69 S6 29.90F

MARSHFIELD PTSUNNY 79 73 83 SW6 29.92F

PLYMOUTH CLOUDY 77 70 79 S7 29.92F

TAUNTON CLOUDY 79 69 71 S9 29.91F

NEW BEDFORD CLOUDY 79 70 73 SW12 29.91F

FALMOUTH CLOUDY 75 72 88 SW10 29.94F

HYANNIS LGT RAIN 74 73 97 S9 29.92F

CHATHAM LGT RAIN 73 71 93 S8 29.95F

PROVINCETOWN PTSUNNY 75 72 88 SW14 29.92F

NANTUCKET LGT RAIN 73 71 93 S13 29.95F

MARTHAS VNYRD CLOUDY 81 75 82 SW12 29.94F

WORCESTER PTSUNNY 76 69 79 S12 29.93F

FITCHBURG PTSUNNY 77 72 83 CALM 29.91F

ORANGE MOSUNNY 79 68 69 S6 29.90F

SPRINGFIELD MOSUNNY 80 70 70 CALM 29.89F

WESTFIELD PTSUNNY 83 66 56 SE5 29.89F

NORTH ADAMS MOSUNNY 80 63 55 CALM 29.89F

PROVIDENCE CLOUDY 77 70 79 S8 29.93S

NEWPORT PTSUNNY 77 71 82 S8 29.93F

SMITHFIELD CLOUDY 77 70 78 S5 29.92F

WESTERLY PTSUNNY 78 72 81 S12G17 29.93F

BRADLEY INTL PTSUNNY 83 68 60 VRB3 29.88F

HARTFORD PTSUNNY 81 70 69 N6 29.88F

BRIDGEPORT MOSUNNY 82 69 64 SW12 29.90F

GROTON PTSUNNY 77 72 84 S7 29.90F

NEW HAVEN PTSUNNY 81 72 74 SW9 29.90F

CHESTER NOT AVBL

MERIDEN MOSUNNY 82 71 69 VRB7 29.89F

WILLIMANTIC MOSUNNY 81 70 69 S7 29.90F

OXFORD MOSUNNY 81 66 61 W7 29.93F

PORTLAND ME CLOUDY 73 71 93 S3 29.93F

BANGOR ME CLOUDY 71 70 96 S8 29.94F FOG

CONCORD NH CLOUDY 74 71 91 S3 29.90F

MANCHESTER NH CLOUDY 75 71 87 CALM 29.88F

NASHUA NH CLOUDY 76 72 87 CALM 29.90F

PORTSMOUTH NH CLOUDY 77 72 85 S6 29.89F FOG

JAFFREY NH MOSUNNY 78 66 66 CALM 29.92F

KEENE NH MOSUNNY 79 70 73 W5 29.89F

post-1336-0-77138800-1344791424_thumb.gi

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FINALLY...a weekend beach day with NO chance of rain...when was the last time we had one of those. I for one am tired of all these rain chances whether they come to fruition or not. It will be nice to see some full sun and blue skies for a change. Enjoy everyone

totally agree. headed to beach now.

enjoy bro

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Euro and gfs both quite wet midweek and again Saturday with cooler air behind it

Both models finally show our first fall-like stretch with temperatures reaching the 50s at night. ECM has 850s down to 4-6C which should be a noticeable regime change from what we've experienced. High heat looks to be confined to the Desert Southwest for most of August, with a large-scale pattern change in the Plains to cooler than normal.

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GFS is also on board with the euro:

The Northern Hemisphere is absolutely torching though, as we can see on the 500mb anomaly maps. To prove this, UAH analysis of global temperatures had a global anomaly of +.28C for July, which was actually a good bit cooler than June. However, the Northern Hemisphere was +.45C whereas the Southern Hemisphere was only +.11C.

GISS surface analysis also shows that the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the Arctic and North America, carried much of the world's warmth:

Some of this may be due to the Arctic having so little ice extent, which means albedo differences are warming the atmosphere as we see the anomaly here:

With the Arctic freezing over, the winter will probably not carry the same extreme anomalies. However, I'd still like to see the Northern Hemisphere cool more as most of the world's coldest airmasses in the last 20 years have been over Antarctica. In the last few winters, the polar vortex has also sat mostly on the Siberian/Eurasian side, meaning that North America is removed from the most bitter air by several factors.

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It will be intresting if the coming cooldown 8/20 - 8/24 will match the departures we had 7/19 - 7/22. Also do we see a quick reversal to a warmer regime by the 25th.

The 12z ECM looks as if it wants to build heights in the East around 8/25 in response to a trough digging into the Pacific Northwest (-PNA). We should see 3-4 days of cooler weather starting Saturday, with lows well into the 50s in the suburbs for a few nights...850s are only around 5-6C at Day 8 on today's Euro. However, a trough moving from the GoA into the West could spread some of the heat building in the Southwest deserts East, leading to a late-season heatwave.

The ECM ENS didn't seem to agree and they still have a more +PNA pattern at 240, with near average heights in the East. However, the coldest weather relative to norms is clearly on the Russian side as there's a large vortex over the Kara Sea and into parts of Siberia, especially on the ensembles:

post-475-0-20626600-1344892160_thumb.gif

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oh I see some people writing off summer heat already...of course its going to get cooler...we are in mid August, thats a no brainer, how cool though and whether upper 80s to low 90s returns again is up for debate

by the way anybody have the departures for this month so far. assuming its running pretty good above normal everywhere

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