NEG NAO Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 833 FXUS61 KOKX 310852 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012 SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/ MODELS HAVE TRENDED WWD WITH THE TRACK OF LOW PRES TODAY. HPC INDICATES CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK LIKELY INFLUENCING THE NAM/GFS SOLNS. FCST INCREASES CHANCES ACROSS ERN ZONES THIS AFTN...BUT KEEPS WORDING AS CHANCE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE WWD EXTENT OF THE PCPN ZONE. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ISOLD POPS FOR AFTN TSTMS. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE MEH AND NAM12 TO ACCOUNT FOR A WEAKER OFFSHORE SOLN. ANY PCPN SHIELD SHUNTS EWD TNGT..THEN ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE W AS UPR TROF APPROACHES. KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WITH NO OVERNIGHT SB INSTABILITY...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLN. CHANCES INCREASE THRU THE DAY ON WED AS THE TROF PASSES OVER THE CWA. TEMPS WED BUMPED UP WITH TRANSIENT MID LVL THERMAL RIDGE. SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS ACROSS NJ AND THE CITY COULD HIT 90. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/ AN UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND FILLS ALONG THE EAST COAST ON THU WITH HEIGHTS RISES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NE ON MON...SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. PRIOR TO NEXT MON...GENERALLY LOOKING AT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS... WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND LOWS 70 TO 75. DEW POINTS WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 95 FOR METRO NY DURING THIS TIME. GENERALLY LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS FOR CONVECTION...IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN EACH AFTERNOON WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE ORGANIZED EVENT ON MON WITH HEIGHT FALLS...A STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE...AND A COLD FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 heatwave acoming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 heatwave acoming.... Nothing new same ole.same ole! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Ecm with the hottest solution for next week but the 18z gfs and ensembles trended a bit warmer. The period to watch for some stronger heat as it is trending on guidance is 8/6 - 8/9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 The 90's look to make a return next few days as the Western Atlantic Ridge flexes its muscles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Both the Euro and GFS have a trough in the long range for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 While the 0z Euro is a complete torch next week, the ensembles are more normal type weather with troughiness in the Upper Mid-Atlantic. We have seen this before this summer and almost every time the heat solutions worked out better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 The 90's look to make a return for Friday as the Western Atlantic Ridge flexes its muscles. the nam has the heat returning tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 the nam has the heat returning tomorrow for some... looks like a seabreeze east/se of manhattan. jfk should have strong s winds from the abrose jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Storms popping up mostly east of the city and along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 torrential rains and gusty winds with the pop up storm out here...but very little lightning/thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Most of the activity is well east of where Upton was expecting. They only went with 30% pops and no hazardous weather outlook in Suffolk cty. torrential rains and gusty winds with the pop up storm out here...but very little lightning/thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Super dark a few miles to my north, towards Jamaica/Hollis. I can hear the thunder and see the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Most of the activity is well east of where Upton was expecting. They only went with 30% pops and no hazardous weather outlook in Suffolk cty. yea looks like they might be firing along a seabreeze front... sunny again here with some dark clouds to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Just had a storm come in from east...pretty cool to watch....heavy rain......warlock where is the heat? Last few days been meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 While the 0z Euro is a complete torch next week, the ensembles are more normal type weather with troughiness in the Upper Mid-Atlantic. We have seen this before this summer and almost every time the heat solutions worked out better. Now the 12z euro is much cooler then last night's run. Came towards its ensembles. It went from 20+ 850's and a huge torch from days 7-10 to now 10-15 degree 850's. By day 10, there is a huge trough over the NE and 850 temps only in the 8-10 degree range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 It's actually pretty laughable at the differences between the 0z and 12z euro. 0z run was a mega torch with temps approaching 100 degrees for several days next week. 12z run is the complete opposite and has temps below normal and by the end of the run well below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Is it pretty much all about where the front gets hung up early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Now the 12z euro is much cooler then last night's run. Came towards its ensembles. It went from 20+ 850's and a huge torch from days 7-10 to now 10-15 degree 850's. By day 10, there is a huge trough over the NE and 850 temps only in the 8-10 degree range. extremes in either direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Good opportunities to pick up more needed convective rainfall with the front stalling out due to the blocking from the Western Atlantic Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Since Thursday this has been the worse stretch of weather this summer...rain every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 12z ecm and its ensembles night and day from last few runs with no heat after sunday and below normal temps by wed. It will be interesting to see how guidance trends. GFS in the middle with some warm days coupled with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Nice job by Upton predicting 90 today, BIG LOL! 1.42" of rain here today, nice cell that basically hit Elizabeth, Springfiield. Hillside, down to Edison/Woodbridge area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 12z ecm and its ensembles night and day from last few runs with no heat after sunday and below normal temps by wed. It will be interesting to see how guidance trends. GFS in the middle with some warm days coupled with storms. 18z GFS also has a major trough in the East for late next week and into next weekend. With the SOI becoming negative and the heat dome pushing west, I still expect August to be the coolest month of this up-and-down summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Six hour maximum temperature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 hopefully the Euro was on crack and reverts to its former solution. We have had enough rain, the lawns are green again and filled with crabgrass, nutsedge and other weeds. Why anyone would more clouds and rainfall is beyond me. Time for the sun to shine again, how long has it been since we have a stretch of truly sunny days with no clouds or rain chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Rain on and off today, hopefully we can get some more sun in the coming days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 114 in Tulsa today? Good lord! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Driving 95 to balt from bos. Only thing visible today from across the hudson is the freedom tower above the shallow fog haze layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Looking at the Euro ensembles and even the OP now, I think that the hottest part of the first half of August is going to be during the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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