wisconsinwx Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 With the upgrade to high end slight risk probs in parts of the Western Great Lakes, I decided to start a thread. Looks like storms fire this afternoon in N Wisconsin and the western part of the UP of Michigan and move SE through the evening, potentially congealing into a squall line later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Nice tonight is becoming pretty interesting. I would expect more of a wind threat especially the farther south you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 Nice tonight is becoming pretty interesting. I would expect more of a wind threat especially the farther south you go. I agree, wind is more of a threat than hail to begin with, and since it is more likely to form a squall line as it approaches S Wisconsin, I think it's safe to say damaging wind will be the main factor. I get out of work at 8, seems like that is the consensus time for these storms to blow through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Liking this.... EXPECT ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS MAY TAKE ON MORE LINEAR/SQLN CHARACTER INTO SERN WI AND PERHAPS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IL AND LAKE MI DURING THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IF THIS DOES INDEED OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 Liking this.... EXPECT ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS MAY TAKE ON MORE LINEAR/SQLN CHARACTER INTO SERN WI AND PERHAPS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IL AND LAKE MI DURING THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IF THIS DOES INDEED OCCUR. I'm liking it too, of course the further north you are, the better chance of the storms being strong to severe given the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 Watch up for NE Wisconsin and part of the UP of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 No storms please. My leafy tropicals hate wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 No storms please. My leafy tropicals hate wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 HRRR not looking so good anymore. Actually has convection developing in SW Wisconsin and E Iowa, moving east but struggling to make it. When have I seen this scenario before? Also has a few thunderstorms north of the area moving from NE Wisconsin to N Lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 This looks like a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 This looks like a fail. Thanks Tropical, thanks a bunch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Once again there seems to be a lack of a trigger to fire off convection....If/when these storms get going, I wonder if the lake breeze will come in to play at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Storms denied again. Nothing but crystal blue sky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Note to self: next time severe probs from SPC go from <5% to 30% in less than a day, remember this event and realize it will be a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Once again there seems to be a lack of a trigger to fire off convection....If/when these storms get going, I wonder if the lake breeze will come in to play at all. Wonder if the SE wind off the lake tonight could trigger some cells? Edit: WisconsinWx you might have spoke too soon. Cells popping up west of the main group in NE WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 In SW Michigan. Severe storms forecast FAIL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 In SW Michigan. Severe storms forecast FAIL!! Indeed. Almost expected though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Note to self: next time severe probs from SPC go from <5% to 30% in less than a day, remember this event and realize it will be a bust. There was a couple of snorts during that LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 In SW Michigan. Severe storms forecast FAIL!! At least DTX only mentioned the word "severe" in the same sentence as "not likely" and that probably means I'll probably get woke up by the torrential rains, hail and wind somewhere around 5AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Not sure about severe storms, but cells are popping up further west along the front. Something to watch still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Although I have my doubts they'll become severe, popcorn cells are starting to develop in the northern part of the MKX forecast area with the weak cold front most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Indeed. Almost expected though. GRR still confident on strong/severe storms west of 131. Just dont see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 WisconsinWx - RPM is showing storms over you by 10:30pm. 11:00 pm here and marching into SW MI shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 WisconsinWx - RPM is showing storms over you by 10:30pm. 11:00 pm here and marching into SW MI shortly after. I believe both of us may yet see a storm or two, but right now the boundary looks to be moving slowly. Do you know when that RPM run was initialized? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I believe both of us may yet see a storm or two, but right now the boundary looks to be moving slowly. Do you know when that RPM run was initialized? Skilling said it was the latest. Could have been the 9pm run. The initialization showed the storms about where they were half hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I believe both of us may yet see a storm or two, but right now the boundary looks to be moving slowly. Do you know when that RPM run was initialized? Yeah the boundary needs to start moving faster or in a more southerly direction for far southern Wisconsin to have a chance at getting anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Storms denied again. Nothing but crystal blue sky! Looks like your avatar will win again for probably the 3rd or 4th time this week. You should get clipped by a storm or two. Probably won't damage your palms though, don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Well the RPM was definitely off, but the storms are still going - so that's good. Should be into Ozaukee County pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Well the RPM was definitely off, but the storms are still going - so that's good. Should be into Ozaukee County pretty soon. Getting a really good lightshow about 50 miles to my north if nothing else. Looks like that storm moving into Washington and Ozaukee Counties is starting to bow out a bit, and a bit more S or SSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Some small cells popping up ahead of the main line. Looks like part of the GRR area will get some action tonight. Madison looks to get a cell over them soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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