WilkesboroDude Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 Interesting solution to say the least! We could use a weaker system maybe striking north-east Florida moving inland. Lot's of interesting solutions out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Interesting solution to say the least! We could use a weaker system maybe striking north-east Florida moving inland. Lot's of interesting solutions out there today. Today's solutions were interesting for a change, and yes I know they will change a million times in the next 10 days...but at least it will distract me from the weather bordom I have been experienceing lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 NOTE...these will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Looks like I may be altering my vacation plans from August 10th-19th! I'm meeting up with 4 other meteorologists in Florida! Of course, last time I was in Florida.... Debby happened! Maybe I should stop going on vacation in Florida during tropical season hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 I wouldn't mind seeing another Frances for some drought busting rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 I wouldn't mind seeing another Frances for some drought busting rains. Yeah after nearly 10 inches of rain in July, I wouldn't mind another 1-2 feet of rain from a tropical system. The flooding here in Western North Carolina was the big story from Frances that got completely missed on a national level because every media outlet in America was on their knees in love with Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Not to get off topic but I thought Andrew was upgraded to a 5 at land fall. That WU graphic shows it as a 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Not to get off topic but I thought Andrew was upgraded to a 5 at land fall. That WU graphic shows it as a 4. It was a Cat 5 between HURDAT data points (a rare case, but it was studied more thoroughly than most storms for obvious reasons). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 99L upgraded to a medium chance for development. Looks to be slowly organizing as it distances itself from the equator further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 99L upgraded to High Chance for development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 The past couple of runs of the GFS reminds me of the track of Hurricane Dean (2007) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 A lot of shear in the western Caribbean Gulf per satellite and upper charts. It is not forecast to relax. Like NHC weakening trends in their forecast. Figure this thing won't survive the trip past Cuba - if it even strengthens. Only a track into Central America would allow it to survive. Wait, it has not even become a TS yet! Natural gas market agrees. Down in the face of another low injection. Sell the storm! Edit: Natty down again! Corrections to forecast above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I lost the links to these when my old computer crashed, could you please provide the links (or anyone). Thanks so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I lost the links to these when my old computer crashed, could you please provide the links (or anyone). Thanks so much. Here ya go good sir! http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Ernesto looks like one of those classic Eastern Carribean storms that is trying its best to make it through the weekend and into the Western Carib. so it can really begin to take off. Would like to see it slow down a little in the next day or two before running into Central America...if it can slow down, I see a "primed" GOM being in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 I have my doubts with Ernesto running into Central America...there's a reason the NHC is not following the GFS and EURO with this storm. They keep failing to initialize how strong the storm is right now. The models that show Ernesto stronger pull him more north into the GOM. Will be a interesting week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Latest sat pics show it really getting its act togeher fast, Its slowing down somewhat in forward motion. The more it intensifies the better chance for it to catch the weakness in the ridges and pull NW as NHC alluded to in their 11 pm discussion. I'd be getting redy to put my A game on for prepardness on the TX/LA coast by the end of the weekend. Plenty of fuel for the fire looking at sst's. Sheer/minor dry air short term or the yucatan penisula may be the only speed bumps that can slow him down now. The NW Yucatan I'd say stands about an 80% chance of taken a direct hit from a major. If he does manage to avoid a direct hit of the Yucatan, then it's probably gonna be lights out for someone the Gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 ^ Probably going to be lights out for someone along the Gulf Coast even if it does cross the Yucatan...pretty flat there unlike some of Caribbean islands. I wonder how or if 91L will interfere with Ernesto...that could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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