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August 2012 Tropical Atlantic Observations And Discussions


NEG NAO

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Overall, the pattern, still looks different the Euro and GFS guidance, later next. The GFS and GEFS, have deeper trough that would bring Issac's remnants up the coast. While the Euro and it's ensemble mean favor more ridging over the East Coast, that would keep Issac away from us.

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The 12z GFS track is about as bad as it gets if you were hoping for a large impact in this region.

1) The system crosses the heart of Cuba

2) The system begins to organize in the far eastern GOM, very slowly, meanwhile possible land interaction, dry air and upwelling could all be problems.

3) The system misses the trough and basically stalls out over the southeast until it rots away over the course of about a week. Drops a ton of rain in the SE but nothing for us at all. (Which I guess is better than getting the 5-10" of rain that some of the other runs have shown.)

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Are we really going to miss ALL the precip from Issac? Getting dry again here on the South Shore. Some tropical juice would be welcome.

Whatever is left of Issac over the South/Midwest, may merge with another frontal system moving through here, Labor Day weekend.

Edit: The 12z Euro today has shifted much farther east. It makes landfall as a strong hurricane near Apalachicola, FL. Then it slowly moves up through Georgia and Carolinas later this week. Before rottening over the Mid-Atlantic.

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Posted just for entertainment purposes. The GFS has once again been hinting at east coast impacts with the next African wave, behind Invest 97L. Several GFS members are targeting areas between the Carolina and New England. However, the majority continue to suggest fish. There are similarities to Isaac; each run is gradually coming further west so it will be interesting to see where this one goes.

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Posted just for entertainment purposes. The GFS has once again been hinting at east coast impacts with the next African wave, behind Invest 97L. Several GFS members are targeting areas between the Carolina and New England. However, the majority continue to suggest fish. There are similarities to Isaac; each run is gradually coming further west so it will be interesting to see where this one goes.

NHC now has that wave at 10% chance of development. Should be interesting to watch. Obviously it's way out in fantasy land and is mainly just for entertainment, but here's what the 12z GFS does with it in the long range:

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With a developing persistent NE trough, prospects for a tropical impact for the Northeast look very small for the foreseeable future into the end of August.

The general pattern remains the same with the westerlies over the area for the foreseeable future, any tropical impact for the Northeast remains remote.

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The general pattern remains the same with the westerlies over the area for the foreseeable future, any tropical impact for the Northeast remains remote.

The northeast will miss the remnants of Isaac.Kirk is going to be a fish storm and by the looks of the models right now, 98L will stay in the ocean and not hit the U.S.

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