bluewave Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 stop talking about crappy models... the euro is your best option I can't remember the last time the CMC really did well on a longer range track. Sometimes when the GFS and Euro are far apart, the UKMET can be useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I really want this going up into the bahamas and then shoot north and eventually to our east ala an Earl track. Sick sick waves and no one gets hurt. I think its more likely we have a florida hit followed by a large rain storm heading up the coast to ruin labor day weekend. even in that scenario, it's not going to rain 3 days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 12z UKMET crosses Hispaniola on day 2 with a continued NNW movement and by day 3 its just north of the eastern point of Cuba. Waiting for the rest of the run to come out, but it appears it's sticking with its previous forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I really want this going up into the bahamas and then shoot north and eventually to our east ala an Earl track. Sick sick waves and no one gets hurt. I think its more likely we have a florida hit followed by a large rain storm heading up the coast to ruin labor day weekend. Why would anyone want that? That is probably the most dangerous, because you get idiots who think the storm missed us and will go to the beach because the weather is nice, and then get killed by rip currents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 New GFS is slightly NE of the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 The GFS holds serve with a Florida keys into Gulf track. It will be interesting to see if the Euro comes a little further north toward GFS this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 stop talking about crappy models... the euro is your best option Incredible (and, as a human being, humbling) that the Euro beats the official NHC track forcasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 GFS skirts western Florida and goes into the Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 most interesting track is up the west coast of FLA for obvious reasons ........................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 looks like things trending away from an eastern Florida coast impact....Euro rocks as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 looks like things trending away from an eastern Florida coast impact....Euro rocks as usual. so all those day 10 gfs maps were a waste of time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Definitely not, it's fun tracking the weather models; and not the actual weather. Looks like TD10 is the SNE's next chance at some tropical action, still believe Isaac's remnants will come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Definitely not, it's fun tracking the weather models; and not the actual weather. Looks like TD10 is the SNE's next chance at some tropical action, still believe Isaac's remnants will come up the coast. TD10 looks like a recurve lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 so all those day 10 gfs maps were a waste of time? hey forky FYI many of the mets on this site have been posting about this storm and posting model runs for well over a week now in the main weather forum................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 looks like things trending away from an eastern Florida coast impact....Euro rocks as usual. Euro is the best model but it isn't right 100 percent all the time .This looks like a Florida panhandle event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 TD10 looks like a recurve lock Yeah, it really does; but after what happened with Isaac....not going to discount anything yet. The only model that shows a threat is the CMC but it has performed poorly with Isaac. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Definitely not, it's fun tracking the weather models; and not the actual weather. Looks like TD10 is the SNE's next chance at some tropical action, still believe Isaac's remnants will come up the coast. climo would suggest a recurve OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Euro continues further south than GFS over the western tip of Cuba through 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It's hard to bet against the Euro's consistency. Looks like a mature tropical cyclone in the central Gulf after limited land interaction on the 12Z ECMWF. Will be interesting to watch that trough sliding into the northeast on future runs. The recent trends certainly argue against an Irene redux. New Orleans is certainly under the gun with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Jeez, what a storm for New Orleans on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Jeez, what a storm for New Orleans on the Euro. Hopefully it shifts east to the Florida Panhandle on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 The other models today are following the Euro. In building a stronger ridge, north of Issac, that could keep it in on more westerly path into the GOM next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 If Isaac gets into the gulf, it will explode due to the very warm waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Euro ensemble mean has the same timing and a very similar track to the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I will be in Cape May all next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 yes, tropical remnants; we need the rain around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I will be in Cape May all next week What's it do after that? OTS or did the whole area get hit with rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 What's it do after that? OTS or did the whole area get hit with rain? It moves out, mostly impacting coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 i think isaac is more likely to rot over the midwest/plains somewhere while we get heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 i think isaac is more likely to rot over the midwest/plains somewhere while we get heat Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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