MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Ensemble mean is on eastern Florida and the GGEM has a hurricane that hits the Mid Atlantic and then goes inland from there. Our area gets the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 My cruise departs at 5pm Saturday from Fort Lauderdale. This should be fun. Yeah could be no boat to get on as they send it out to sea and get it out of the Port, if the threat gets realized. Good luck & hope Isaac doesn't ruin your planned cruise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Here is the 0z Nogaps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Trends are looking very promising tonight, amwx might go into SEP soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 We are still a couple of days out. Anything can happen with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 You seemed pretty confident about the eastward shift, I think these trends are set in stone for the most part; also considering the euro's 0z run has slowed down considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 0z Euro is still south of all the models. It went north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 0z Euro is still south of all the models. Hmm, looks more north than 12z. Also, it's pretty weak; almost open wavevish; this model has been a trainwreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Either the Euro is out to lunch or the other models are on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Either the Euro is out to lunch or the other models are on crack. Probably the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 The news after the latest GFS upgrade was that it did well with the tropics but had a bias twds showing convective feedback. This was an issue that it had many moons ago. They fixed it somewhat with later updates, but it is back now. They said they will fix the feedback issue with a future update, but overall, with the new update just issued, it has seemed to have some good reliability with TC. The NHC seems to still want to split the GFS/Euro for their forecast prefs. I think this is a good move. The Euro has had some bad moments at times, but combined with the new GFS, it lends to a good blend for a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 If the cane goes over Hispanola, it could be ripped to shreds--that will be the key with regard to strength... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 The 0z ensemble mean had Isaac on the eastern side of Flordia and now it has it in the gulf. Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 The 0z ensemble mean had Isaac on the eastern side of Flordia and now it has it in the gulf. Terrible. its not a huge difference dude, perfectly reasonable for over 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 its not a huge difference dude, perfectly reasonable for over 5 days out True. Models could change dramatically 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 The GOM water temps are so warm Isaac would strengthening all the way to the coast . I for one am hoping Isaac finds its way into the gulf , dont need it up the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 True. Models could change dramatically 5 days out. That's not a dramatic change. The GFS and GEFS have been wobbling from west coast of Florida to East coast of Florida for days. Similar to the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 The GOM water temps are so warm Isaac would strengthening all the way to the coast . I for one am hoping Isaac finds its way into the gulf , dont need it up the east coast If anything, hope for it to make landfall on the east coast of Florida. We dont need gas prices to shoot up to $5+ a gallon because of a threat to the refineries in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 If anything, hope for it to make landfall on the east coast of Florida. We dont need gas prices to shoot up to $5 a gallon because of a threat to the refineries in the gulf. This is a great post. If the storm does indeed hit the gulf, gas prices will inflate. It's already high at $4.05 a gallon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 If anything, hope for it to make landfall on the east coast of Florida. We dont need gas prices to shoot up to $5 a gallon because of a threat to the refineries in the gulf. Either way a major hurricane will develop and its going to be a bad day for someone next week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Either way a major hurricane will develop and its going to be a bad day for someone next week . Yup. Looks very likely a landfalling hurricane will occur for the United States (except euro). The spread, with the euro included, is still east coast of Florida to the Texas/Mexico border. I'm sure by tomorrow, the spread will lessen dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Either way a major hurricane will develop and its going to be a bad day for someone next week . It's not a given or likelyhood Issac will become a major hurricane. Most models take near over Cuba and Hispanola first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It's not a given or likelyhood Issac will become a major hurricane. Most models take near over Cuba and Hispanola first. Cuba and Hispanola has the chance of taking this storm to the shredder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Cuba and Hispanola has the chance of taking this storm to the shredder. I for one agree with this post in that exposed to cuba and hispanola it would most likely weaken drastically and hinder its restrengthening once it gets into the GOF. We've seen it before where some tropical cyclones after prolonged land interaction they have a very difficult time strengthening there after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It's not a given or likelyhood Issac will become a major hurricane. Most models take near over Cuba and Hispanola first. Tons of warm water in front of this .Nothing in life is a given , except death . " when this system exits it point of making its turn north " it goin back into very warm water where conditons are really favorable for big time developement I am in the camp that this is a major hurricane come early next week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 12z Nam at 81 hours. Much further northeast than the GFS and the Euro. Also further north and east of the previous run. Bahamas incoming on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I really want this going up into the bahamas and then shoot north and eventually to our east ala an Earl track. Sick sick waves and no one gets hurt. I think its more likely we have a florida hit followed by a large rain storm heading up the coast to ruin labor day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 12z Nam at 81 hours. Much further northeast than the GFS and the Euro. Also further north and east of the previous run. Bahamas incoming on this run. The NAM doesn't track these deep tropical systems very well. The further north you go, the better the NAM seems to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 The NHC track looks pretty close to the GFS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 stop talking about crappy models... the euro is your best option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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