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August 2012 Tropical Atlantic Observations And Discussions


NEG NAO

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Tropical Depression Nine develops east of Leewards - this track forecasted by NHC has it avoiding Jamaca and then sliding just south of Cuba and probably just crossing the west end - and then after that some models have it going into the gulf just west of FLA - just in time to possibly effect the Republican Convention in Tampa next week could be interesting -

http://www.nhc.noaa....?large#contents

Update - New 6Z GFS OP continues the east trend takes it straight through FLA and up the east coast inland as a big rainstorm

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06GFSLoop.html

6Z ensemble mean takes it further east then the op up the east coast

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblesp12_Loop.html

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Shifted east =)

2iw3ya.png

many of these tracks take it over land down there so that might weaken it BUT once it gets into the water south of the Bahamas it would strengthen - still lots of possibilities with this one all is goig to come down to timing with troughs /cold fronts moving through the east and where the ridge out in the atlantic positions itself and its strength will determine how far north and east the storm gets pulled up the coast - one thing looks certain this is not going out to sea some land area will be effected along the gulf or east coast

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He also does this in the winter. The Boxing day blizzard was the worst for DT lol. Anyway, GFS is rolling out. Should be interesting.

The ECMWF is a good mdoel. However, it still has bad runs. When it shows something that is way different from everything else, that should be a red flag. The GFS has been markedly improved recently.

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