andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Please no... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Please no... It's eerly similiar which is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Irene can rot in the bowels of cane hell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Irene can rot in the bowels of cane hell... I'm guessing that your area got hit hard. I didn't get any damage from Irene. I just saw 60 mph winds and 6 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Irene can rot in the bowels of cane hell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 No I live in the Pacific NW, but that thing was frustrating as all hell to track. I'm sure Josh will agree if he were to see this. And no I'm not denying it was a destructive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Wonder if we get an impact at all, so many questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Getting really interesting. 6z GFS takes it right into Georgia and then up the coast. GGEM takes it right up to PA. The ensembles for the GFS and GGEM agree on the track. Euro is on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 Tropical Depression Nine develops east of Leewards - this track forecasted by NHC has it avoiding Jamaca and then sliding just south of Cuba and probably just crossing the west end - and then after that some models have it going into the gulf just west of FLA - just in time to possibly effect the Republican Convention in Tampa next week could be interesting - http://www.nhc.noaa....?large#contents Update - New 6Z GFS OP continues the east trend takes it straight through FLA and up the east coast inland as a big rainstorm http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06GFSLoop.html 6Z ensemble mean takes it further east then the op up the east coast http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblesp12_Loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Shifted east =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 My money is on remnant rains on warlocks labor day weekend...we have not had a washout on labor day weekend in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 21, 2012 Author Share Posted August 21, 2012 Shifted east =) many of these tracks take it over land down there so that might weaken it BUT once it gets into the water south of the Bahamas it would strengthen - still lots of possibilities with this one all is goig to come down to timing with troughs /cold fronts moving through the east and where the ridge out in the atlantic positions itself and its strength will determine how far north and east the storm gets pulled up the coast - one thing looks certain this is not going out to sea some land area will be effected along the gulf or east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Good agreement between Euro and GFS on a track just south of Puerto Rico Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 My money is on remnant rains on warlocks labor day weekend...we have not had a washout on labor day weekend in a while Gfs and Euro agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Gfs and Euro agrees I want some wind to! If its gonna rain on labor day least give us wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Gfs and Euro agrees Someday, maybe not today, maybe not this year, but someday, the Canadian will be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 12z Canadian was run in Metsfan's basement. Nails NC then rides up the coast and into LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Euro goes in the GOM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 While the the timing and exact tract are little different, but the Euro and GFS ensemble mean are going for a gulfcane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 11pm track shifted northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 11pm track shifted northeast Of course they did the exact opposite of what DT said to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Of course they did the exact opposite of what DT said to do. Well he did say major changes coming up at 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Well he did say major changes coming up at 11pm First off, any changes NHC made were NOT major. Secondly, he expected them to go way South and West into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 First off, any changes NHC made were NOT major. Secondly, he expected them to go way South and West into the GOM. Epic fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Epic fail Too early to say that, but all DT is really doing is butt-humping the ECMWF, which is all he ever does anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Too early to say that, but all DT is really doing is butt-humping the ECMWF, which is all he ever does anyway. He also does this in the winter. The Boxing day blizzard was the worst for DT lol. Anyway, GFS is rolling out. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 He also does this in the winter. The Boxing day blizzard was the worst for DT lol. Anyway, GFS is rolling out. Should be interesting. The ECMWF is a good mdoel. However, it still has bad runs. When it shows something that is way different from everything else, that should be a red flag. The GFS has been markedly improved recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 GFS was in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 My cruise departs at 5pm Saturday from Fort Lauderdale. This should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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