NEG NAO Posted August 18, 2012 Author Share Posted August 18, 2012 18Z GFS still has the storm but a frontal system exits the east coast prior to the storm gaining latitude and it tracks a few hundred miles east up the coast out to sea - this is going to be all about timing and the position of the ridge out in the atlantic forecasted to slide off the coast later next week and out to the atlantic http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12300.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Nothing to see on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Once again, the Euro and the GFS shows nothing for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 in 1893 there were four storms in the Atlantic around this date...Nothing like this year... http://weather.unisy...1893/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 19, 2012 Author Share Posted August 19, 2012 Once again, the Euro and the GFS shows nothing for the area. starting at 18z last night the gfs has had the tropical cyclone but there is a cold front that has moved off shore that prevents the storm from heading towards the east coast and keeps it offshore several hundred miles moving north - run the loop on whichever model site you use long range and you will see here is hour 300 on the gfs - this is long range so probably will change as we move forward http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12300.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Still very far out for conclusions. But in a late recurve scenerio for 94L, the core of 500mb ridge near the Azores, would not prevent 94L from tracking back out into the Atlantic and missing the local area entirely: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 12z gfs has it in the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 12z gfs has it in the gulf 12z GFS ensembles give much more of an east coast threat, though it's weak: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble500mbHGHTtropical252.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 The ggem is out to sea lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 there's a tropical thread on the main forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 there's a tropical thread on the main forum That doesn't mean that we can't discuss the system from a regional standpoint in the NYC Metro Forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 The ggem is out to sea lol The CMC takes it almost due north on 8/22 while east of the Lesser Antilles. That's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Allan Huffman said on Twitter that the Euro ensembles are stronger than the op and most of them are clustered near Florida and off the southeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 The long range spread in the Euro ensembles are shifting south from the previous few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 The long range spread in the Euro ensembles are shifting south from the previous few days. The Euro ensembles would support a sharp recurve across FL than off the SE coast, 10 days and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 GFS shifts back east, into the carribean the up into FL lol. Details are pointless now by i think this is a legitimate east coast threat with the pattern in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 20, 2012 Author Share Posted August 20, 2012 1 year ago today Irene developed into a Tropical Storm - Will Isaac be named on the same day a Tropical Storm ?- getting very close to the same area Irene developed http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 None of the models have this riding up the east coast. Still early yet so we have to keep an eye on it. The 6z GFS has it hitting Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 6z GEFS Some members are interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 That doesn't mean that we can't discuss the system from a regional standpoint in the NYC Metro Forum. talking about day 10+ model threats for a wave that isn't even a depression yet is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 talking about day 10+ model threats for a wave that isn't even a depression yet is ridiculous What else is there to talk about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 GFS hits Florida really hard with flooding rains. It shifted slightly from the previous run. It then takes the storm ENE missing our area to the east. If the trough didn't come through, this would have went straight up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Here is the 12z GGEM. Different than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Here is the 12z GGEM. Different than the GFS. A Cat 6 MegaCane headed NW towards Long Island would produce 4 or 5 50 page posts in the subforum, but the Canadian is rarely correct. Good news, looking at 1000 mb or stronger lows on 12Z ensembles, most are further East of the op, and I am not giving up on an NYC subforum impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 A Cat 6 MegaCane headed NW towards Long Island would produce 4 or 5 50 page posts in the subforum, but the Canadian is rarely correct. Good news, looking at 1000 mb or stronger lows on 12Z ensembles, most are further East of the op, and I am not giving up on an NYC subforum impact. I'm the only one in this thread right now. I don't know where everyone is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Of course a hurricane in the carribean while I will be on a cruise. Makes perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 GGEM showing the worst case scenario with the strong ridge nudging isaac from east to west into our area lol. Euro and gfs still figuring things out. Lots of factors at play. Would be interesting to track another irene like storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 0z gfs was significantly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Check this out. Deja vu? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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