IsentropicLift Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 I truthfully wonder what the chances are of a major hurricane making it up this way. So hard to speculate what might actually happen especially since we don't even have a named system yet, but the setup does appear favorable for a late curving TC sometime around the one year anniversary of Irene. The perfect combination of a deep trough to the west and blocking to the NE could be just what we need to get the job done, especially if the system becomes caught up in the jet stream. This could help to not only speed up TC which would minimize weakening but it could help to enhance the intensity as it begins post-tropical transition. It's going to be an interesting couple of weeks. FWIW, the 12z ECMWF has the system taking a sharp turn to the WNW north of Puerto Rico at hr 240. At the same time you have high pressure anchored over the northeast and nothing in the way of land interaction to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Something to track at least, hoping we can get some action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 This was the 18z GFS at 324. The ensembles are further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 This was the 18z GFS at 324. The ensembles are further west. So far out but Def worth keeping an eye on, in the main forum. A lot of knowledgable people have been saying end of aug EC threat. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 18, 2012 Author Share Posted August 18, 2012 The NHC has the area west of the Cape Verdes at a 40 % chance of development - this area will probably develop the i storm called Isaac - as mentioned in the posts above this has a chance of making it this far west - this summer has been very similar to last summer so far Hot Dry July and August is getting wetter as the month has progressed - and we have had the exact number of named storms to date as last year will this be another i named storm that threatens the east coast ? Will be spooky if Isaac develops on the same date as Irene August 20 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ History of Irene http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2011H/IRENE/track.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 GFS continues to track a tropical storm up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Congrats SNE on the 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Congrats SNE on the 6z GFS You wouldn't take the LIRR to the Hampstons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 You wouldn't take the LIRR to the Hampstons? I would take a drive over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/data/forecast/grads/gfslr/panel2/anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 GFS continues to track a tropical storm up the coast Definitely not a tropical storm but an interesting track for sure, watching this one closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Definitely not a tropical storm but an interesting track for sure, watching this one closely. What is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 What is it? A hurricane, especially on a truncated low resolution GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 GFS = Irene. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 GFS = Irene. WOW Yeah, looks like a potent hurricane riding up the eastern seaboard on the 12z GFS. Pretty strong similarities with Irene's track and the track on the 12z GFS. Even though it is very far out still, this certainly needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 18, 2012 Author Share Posted August 18, 2012 Yeah, looks like a potent hurricane riding up the eastern seaboard on the 12z GFS. Pretty strong similarities with Irene's track and the track on the 12z GFS. Even though it is very far out still, this certainly needs to be watched. What are the chances of a storm similar to Irene hitting almost exactly 1 year to the day taking a very similar track ? But this summer has been almost a carbon copy in this area of last summer Hot July - just about the same number of 90 degree days so far as last year - August has had increased precip - and have had exactly the same number of named tropical storms and this would be the i storm Isaac. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12324.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 What are the chances of a storm similar to Irene hitting almost exactly 1 year to the day taking a very similar track ? But this summer has been almost a carbon copy in this area of last summer Hot July - just about the same number of 90 degree days so far as last year - August has had increased precip - and have had exactly the same number of named tropical storms and this would be the i storm Isaac. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12324.gif Should also be noted that the GFS at truncation tends to underestimate the storm's minimum SLP with it's low resolution quality as Riptide said earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Ensembles are west compared to previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 While the Euro and GFS differ on the intensity, their tracks are very close through 120 hrs taking Isaac into the Caribbean near 15N/60W. Where it actually enters the Caribbean will determine what type of interaction there is with either Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, or Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I know im no expert with tropical systems/patterns but odds are heavily against this happening again 1 year after we got impacted with a previous tropical cyclone. I hope we dont because last year i was out of power for 7 days and no AC! It was awful never in my life do i wanna experience that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I know im no expert with tropical systems/patterns but odds are heavily against this happening again 1 year after we got impacted with a previous tropical cyclone. This logic is really flawed. In general, it is ALWAYS unlikely that a tropical cyclone will impact our area. However, having experienced one a year earlier has ZERO actual impact on future events. Past performance is not indicitive of future results. Meaning, our odds of being impacted by a hurricane (in general) the day before Irene hit are essentially identical to our odds right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Take a look at Hurricane Charley in '86. Just one year after Gloria and took almost the same track. It did curve NE off Delaware but came dangerously close to hitting LI again. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Charley_(1986) I know im no expert with tropical systems/patterns but odds are heavily against this happening again 1 year after we got impacted with a previous tropical cyclone. I hope we dont because last year i was out of power for 7 days and no AC! It was awful never in my life do i wanna experience that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Right, if we use that logic we would have never had all the big snowstorms since 2000 since we had more than our fair share compared to the 80s. I realize there is a certain mentality that we're 'overdue' for a storm if a decade goes by without one but in reality it's not true. Especially when we only have roughly 100 years worth of climate data at our disposal. This logic is really flawed. In general, it is ALWAYS unlikely that a tropical cyclone will impact our area. However, having experienced one a year earlier has ZERO actual impact on future events. Past performance is not indicitive of future results. Meaning, our odds of being impacted by a hurricane (in general) the day before Irene hit are essentially identical to our odds right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandHurricanes Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I know im no expert with tropical systems/patterns but odds are heavily against this happening again 1 year after we got impacted with a previous tropical cyclone. I hope we dont because last year i was out of power for 7 days and no AC! It was awful never in my life do i wanna experience that again. New York has only be hit 2 years in a row by a tropical system twice 1893-1894, and 1960-1961 http://www.hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com/newyork.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Take a look at Hurricane Charley in '86. Just one year after Gloria and took almost the same track. It did curve NE off Delaware but came dangerously close to hitting LI again. http://en.wikipedia....e_Charley_(1986) I remember Charley. We got really lucky with Gloria in Long Beach as she hit two hours from low tide. Irene arrived right at high tide but she was weak enough by the time she got here to only equal the actual tide level of Gloria.Gloria's surge was 8.5 feet close to low tide while the surge with Irene was only 4.5 feet. The flooding results of both storms were the same for us in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 18, 2012 Author Share Posted August 18, 2012 Both Euro and GFS has this storm - if this storm continues showing up on the models and actually develops into a tropical storm by the middle of next week we are going to see the mainstream media covering this earlier then normal because of the 1 year anniversary of Irene approaching on the 27th and 28th - especially if the models continue the track towards the east coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Both Euro and GFS has this storm - if this storm continues showing up on the models and actually develops into a tropical storm by the middle of next week we are going to see the mainstream media covering this earlier then normal because of the 1 year anniversary of Irene approaching on the 27th and 28th - especially if the models continue the track towards the east coast . It will be interesting to see how things play out. The Euro ensemble mean tracks Isaac to near 15n/60w in 120 hours. While there is more spread by 240 hrs, it should near the SE coast but the strength is contingent on what type of land interaction there is in the Caribbean first. Obviously the more interaction the weaker and the less the stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 It will be interesting to see how things play out. The Euro ensemble mean tracks Isaac to near 15n/60w in 120 hours. While there is more spread by 240 hrs, it should near the SE coast but the strength is contingent on what type of land interaction there is in the Caribbean first. Obviously the more interaction the weaker and the less the stronger. I find it interesting that a smoothed out mean is more defined with the system (you can see it with the isobars) and has a slightly lower pressure, even though it is a smoothed out mean. It could mean that the ECMWF may be underdoing the intensity of the system. Should be interesting to see the input of the 18z HWRF and GFDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I find it interesting that a smoothed out mean is more defined with the system (you can see it with the isobars) and has a slightly lower pressure, even though it is a smoothed out mean. It could mean that the ECMWF may be underdoing the intensity of the system. Should be interesting to see the input of the 18z HWRF and GFDL. Yeah, it looks like it's between the GFS and Euro OP for an intensity signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.