NEG NAO Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 new wave 800 miles southwest of Cape Verde Islands - the Cape Verde Season is beginning http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Hopefully we can get some action going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Hopefully we can get some action going The CFS August thread held out some hope. Pattern looked somewhat favorable. Looking where deep 26º waters are, and not even August yet, half a day, maybe less, for a storm to weaken. Imagine a Cat 4 coming 20 or 25 mph Islip buoy, obviously won't support a TC, but one would hope its warm enough to prevent a cool stable marine layer which might keep strong gusts from mixing down. Mid 70s 1 meter temp. And 6Z GFS ensemble spaghetti says not to give up hope on 99L... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 ^^ FWIW- HM, a trained professional, and one of the better red tags, thinks the pattern is NOT favorable for the East Coast in the mear to medium term, If I had to trust HM or me on weather, I'd trust HM. But I'll remain silver lining sunny side of the street optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 ^^ FWIW- HM, a trained professional, and one of the better red tags, thinks the pattern is NOT favorable for the East Coast in the mear to medium term, If I had to trust HM or me on weather, I'd trust HM. But I'll remain silver lining sunny side of the street optimistic. Thanks for the post, great insight & graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 a lot of dust and dry air coming off Africa too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 a lot of dust and dry air coming off Africa too.... Yeah the drought isn't helping the tropical season @ all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 The experts are against it, people laugh at the Canadian, but a Northwestward moving storm and a trough maybe trying to go negative tilt, I refuse to give up all hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 The experts are against it, people laugh at the Canadian, but a Northwestward moving storm and a trough maybe trying to go negative tilt, I refuse to give up all hope. Something to keep an eye on! Let's hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Something to keep an eye on! Let's hope I want something to track. This is why I love winter. At least there is alot to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 I want something to track. This is why I love winter. At least there is alot to track. I love wind storms so anything with wind is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Have a hard time seeing how this develops much in the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 GGEM ensembles show some interesting solutions. Check the GEM 2 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 GGEM ensembles show some interesting solutions. Check the GEM 2 lol That's awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 That's awesome That would wipe out my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 That would wipe out my area I'm near you to (marine park) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I'm near you to (marine park) When Irene was approaching this area, this area was a ghost town. All the stores were boarded up. Never saw that in my life. I went to Manhattan Beach right after Irene hit. Massive flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 :whistle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 When Irene was approaching this area, this area was a ghost town. All the stores were boarded up. Never saw that in my life. I went to Manhattan Beach right after Irene hit. Massive flooding. I had no power for 2 days? From 1am Sunday morning a tree fell took down the transformer, woke up next morning there were 3 trees down near my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 :whistle: The one with a 965 low is nice to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I had no power for 2 days? From 1am Sunday morning a tree fell took down the transformer, woke up next morning there were 3 trees down near my house CVS closed at 4 . Alot of people thought a big hurricane was coming since the media was talking about winds over 75 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 CVS closed at 4 . Alot of people thought a big hurricane was coming since the media was talking about winds over 75 mph. The march 13 2010 storm was worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 The march 13 2010 storm was worse Yes for parts of the area. Some areas got hit hard by Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 CVS closed at 4 . Alot of people thought a big hurricane was coming since the media was talking about winds over 75 mph. People thought a big hurricane was coming in March? If that's true, then wow are people stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 People thought a big hurricane was coming in March? If that's true, then wow are people stupid. We sold so many batteries and water that week. It was crazy. I'm talking about Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Umm that was in response to Irene People thought a big hurricane was coming in March? If that's true, then wow are people stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 The one with a 965 low is nice to Every year the models smoke a few joints and spit out doom tracks for the northeast. The odds of this happening are extremely low and I wouldn't buy a scenario like the one that is shown even if most of the models had it. Tropical cyclone tracks can change from run to run, and posts like the GGEM ensemble porn belong in the banter thread. In order to get a cyclone up here with that type of strength you would need for it be aborbed into a negatively tilted trough and you would need blocking. Otherwise you have the westerlies and the problem with cold SST. The TC simply can not make it up this far north fast enough before either the westerlies push them offshore or they weaken for a variety of other reasons. You need a fast moving TC which has been absorbed or partially absorbed into a negatively tilted through. A trough that deep and that strong is not exactly easy to come by during the Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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