global temperature rise has essentially halted the past decade

[bobbutts]

I agree with many of Don's points...however, I disagree with just about everything you posted here.

You attack motive of funding, when the funding for the pro-AGW view is much higher...then you point that the recent heat waves in the U.S. have made him more desperate when global temperature rise has essentially halted the past decade and considerably slowed since the turn of the century.

In short, you have injected politics into the debate.

Here's a couple articles that essentially call this out as spurious.. Are they right?

Climate Canard No. 2: ‘Warming Has Stopped’ — A Very Temporary Duck

"Global Warming Has Stopped"? How to Fool People Using "Cherry-Picked" Climate Data

[ORH_wxman]

Here's a couple articles that essentially call this out as spurious.. Are they right?

Climate Canard No. 2: ‘Warming Has Stopped’ — A Very Temporary Duck

"Global Warming Has Stopped"? How to Fool People Using "Cherry-Picked" Climate Data

They are agreeing with us, but saying that it doesn't matter in the scheme of things.

They are saying a 10 year halt is meaningless. They might be right, however they are not denying the 10 year halt. They use longer time scales to show the temperature is still warming...i.e, like in the decadal temp graph, they show how the 2000s were warmer than the 1990s....well of course they were if the warming didn't stop until 10 years ago.

On GISS, I couldn't find a 10 year trend as low as the current one until we got back to to the 1970s, so perhaps it might signal the decadal ocean cycles are starting to play a role...but we will not know for sure until probably another decade has passed.

[donsutherland1]

Here's a couple articles that essentially call this out as spurious.. Are they right?

The seeming dramatic slowing in the rise in global temperatures over a relatively short timeframe might well have much more to do with interannual variability (ENSO, PDO flip, and recent solar minimum) than the evolution of the climate.

1. If one takes 30-year moving averages (minimum length of the climate period) to smooth the data (remove much of the interannual variability), one finds a steady rise still underway.

2. If one compensates for other variables e.g., ENSO, one also finds a continuation of the rise.

I believe a recent paper was published showing that once all variables are set equal, one finds that the warming is steady, neither accelerating nor decelerating. I'll look for the link tomorrow and post it.

Looking ahead, three possible developments could lend further insight:

1. If the emergent El Niño is of a magnitude and duration similar to the 2002-03 and 2009-10 El Niñps and the global land and ocean temperature approaches or exceeds the 2010 record, then that would indicate that the warming is continuing.

2. If the 30-year moving average dramatically decelerates or turns down, that could be an indication of a slowing in the warming or even cooling that is more than the result of interannual variability.

3. If the 30-year trend line flattens dramatically or turns down, that could also suggest a slowing in the warming or even cooling that is more than the result of interannual variability.

[donsutherland1]

As promised, here's the link to the paper I had mentioned that concludes that a steady warming trend remains underway: http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044022/pdf/1748-9326_6_4_044022.pdf

[Vergent]

#9

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm