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August 2012 Severe Thunderstorm/Convection Discussion


earthlight

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

601 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

NORTHWESTERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

PUTNAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

* AT 556 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS

OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES WEST OF WEST MILFORD...

OR 6 MILES NORTH OF HOPATCONG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

BLOOMINGDALE...UNIONVILLE...RINGWOOD...WARWICK...GREENWOOD LAKE...

SUFFERN...SLOATSBURG...FLORIDA...MIDDLETOWN...MONSEY...GOSHEN...

CHESTER...POMONA...MONROE...NEW CITY...HARRIMAN...HAVERSTRAW...

MONTGOMERY...WEST POINT...PEEKSKILL...WALDEN...NEW WINDSOR...COLD

SPRING...GARDNERTOWN AND NEWBURGH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.

WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A

TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A

STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING

IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS

ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR

THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4160 7418 4159 7414 4162 7414 4161 7407

4159 7405 4159 7396 4152 7399 4146 7399

4145 7398 4149 7393 4150 7389 4121 7375

4099 7431 4102 7443 4105 7445 4104 7450

4109 7450 4120 7437 4135 7467

TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 233DEG 49KT 4108 7461

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The southerly flow will give a punch of orographic enhanced lift over parts of northern NJ and the Hudson Valley as the line moves eastward, perhaps that's reflective of the storms holding their own and strengthening somewhat - at least in terms of enhanced rainfall given how the line is oriented more west-east in the northern portion (with the LEWP). Also new cells are firing ahead of the line with the upslope over the terrain. In central Jersey the outflow is beginning to outrun the main convection, usually a precursor to weakening (if the cloud tops don't already attest to that). We'll see what happens.

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The area near Millstone, Somerville, and Bound Brook looks pretty interesting on TEWR with some strengthening over the last 10 minutes and a little push northeast. Looks like some strong winds could materialize over Southern Union and Northern Middlesex if that trend continues.

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The area near Millstone, Somerville, and Bound Brook looks pretty interesting on TEWR with some strengthening over the last 10 minutes and a little push northeast. Looks like some strong winds could materialize over Southern Union and Northern Middlesex if that trend continues.

Finally, the part headed for my area actually looks like it's strengthening!

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mcd1713.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0538 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NJ...EXTREME ERN PA...ERN MD...DE...SERN

NY...CT...RI...MA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564...

VALID 052238Z - 060045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564

CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW IS BEING EXTENDED EWD ACROSS PORTIONS NJ PER COORD

W/WFO PHI. WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY QLCS...WHICH WAS

EVIDENT AT 2215Z FROM ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY MD NNEWD ACROSS EXTREME

ERN PA TO ULSTER COUNTY NY. ACTIVITY FARTHER W ACROSS WRN PA AND WV

SHOULD NOT REACH THIS REGION BEFORE SCHEDULED WW EXPIRATION

TIME...NOR SHOULD IT POSE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT BY THEN.

DISCUSSION...MEASURED GUSTS AT STATIONS ACROSS WHICH QLCS HAS PASSED

HAVE BEEN SUB-SVR...PEAKING AT 44 KT AT RDG AT 2059Z. GIVEN

PRESENCE OF WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ACTIVITY IS DRIVEN LARGELY BY

FORCED ASCENT ALONG ITS GUST FRONT...WHICH HAS SURGED AHEAD OF MAIN

REFLECTIVELY CORES IN SOME AREAS. WHILE THIS COMPLEX IS NOT

EXPECTED TO UNDERGO ANY GEN STRENGTHENING...EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP

FEATURES STILL MAY POSE LOCALIZED RISK OF WIND DAMAGE EVEN WHERE

GUSTS ARE SUB-SVR. BRIEF/LOCALIZED INTENSIFICATION ALSO MAY OCCUR

WHERE PORTIONS OF THIS LINE ENCOUNTER NJ SEA BREEZE...BEFORE

SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OCCURS. NARROW RIBBON OF FAVORABLE

BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR IS EVIDENT BETWEEN DE RIVER AREA AND SEA BREEZE

FRONT OVER PORTIONS CAPE MAY/ATLANTIC/OCEAN/MONMOUTH COUNTIES NJ.

IN THAT CORRIDOR...SFC TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S F...AND DEW POINTS

UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...OFFSET WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES

ENOUGH TO YIELD MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...DECREASING NWD TOWARD

LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE EARLIER CONVECTION STABILIZED AIR MASS

SOMEWHAT. LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT MRGL/ISOLATED SVR

POTENTIAL NE OF WW FROM NERN NJ OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER

ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM GIVEN CONVECTIVE/AIR-MASS

TRENDS.

..EDWARDS.. 08/05/2012

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Guest Pamela

That area is definitely trying to keep it going..looks like its weakened a bit over the last 10 minutes. We'll see if it pulses up again over my area as it comes through.

Looked like the northern section of the squall line weakened just a bit in the last 30 minutes per radar loop.

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The area near Millstone, Somerville, and Bound Brook looks pretty interesting on TEWR with some strengthening over the last 10 minutes and a little push northeast. Looks like some strong winds could materialize over Southern Union and Northern Middlesex if that trend continues.

Im in this area and the storm proving to be more bite than bark...no lightning, some wind before the rain and maybe 5 minute of downpour before just a lighter rain now

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Guest Pamela

Im in this area and the storm proving to be more bite than bark...no lightning, some wind before the rain and maybe 5 minute of downpour before just a lighter rain now

Reverse that... :)

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