Stormlover74 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Watch was extended east to central and coastal nj...not ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 huge warnings for storms that look like they are weakening on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 601 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... NORTHWESTERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... PUTNAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 700 PM EDT... * AT 556 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES WEST OF WEST MILFORD... OR 6 MILES NORTH OF HOPATCONG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BLOOMINGDALE...UNIONVILLE...RINGWOOD...WARWICK...GREENWOOD LAKE... SUFFERN...SLOATSBURG...FLORIDA...MIDDLETOWN...MONSEY...GOSHEN... CHESTER...POMONA...MONROE...NEW CITY...HARRIMAN...HAVERSTRAW... MONTGOMERY...WEST POINT...PEEKSKILL...WALDEN...NEW WINDSOR...COLD SPRING...GARDNERTOWN AND NEWBURGH PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. && LAT...LON 4160 7418 4159 7414 4162 7414 4161 7407 4159 7405 4159 7396 4152 7399 4146 7399 4145 7398 4149 7393 4150 7389 4121 7375 4099 7431 4102 7443 4105 7445 4104 7450 4109 7450 4120 7437 4135 7467 TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 233DEG 49KT 4108 7461 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Yeah I'm not quite sure a warning was necessary for Middlesex county with the line still a ways out huge warnings for storms that look like they are weakening on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Line just came thru here in Sussex co..decent storm. Gust to 35 with very close lightning strikes. Looked worse than it was but overall good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 The southerly flow will give a punch of orographic enhanced lift over parts of northern NJ and the Hudson Valley as the line moves eastward, perhaps that's reflective of the storms holding their own and strengthening somewhat - at least in terms of enhanced rainfall given how the line is oriented more west-east in the northern portion (with the LEWP). Also new cells are firing ahead of the line with the upslope over the terrain. In central Jersey the outflow is beginning to outrun the main convection, usually a precursor to weakening (if the cloud tops don't already attest to that). We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Why does it seem like mt holly's radar doesn't refresh only when there are storms on the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Why does it seem like mt holly's radar doesn't refresh only when there are storms on the way? Download the wxscope free for your PC and your radar will update every 7 mins or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 skies are black and its reallly really really windy.....big storm incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 The area near Millstone, Somerville, and Bound Brook looks pretty interesting on TEWR with some strengthening over the last 10 minutes and a little push northeast. Looks like some strong winds could materialize over Southern Union and Northern Middlesex if that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Why is this thread so very quiet given these line of storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 Deja vu from the medium risk line we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 storms trying to bow near mt. earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 The area near Millstone, Somerville, and Bound Brook looks pretty interesting on TEWR with some strengthening over the last 10 minutes and a little push northeast. Looks like some strong winds could materialize over Southern Union and Northern Middlesex if that trend continues. Finally, the part headed for my area actually looks like it's strengthening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Why is this thread so very quiet given these line of storms? Trials is on vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Getting quite dark to my southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 storms trying to bow near mt. earthlight It looks like it but the velocity scans are still pretty unimpressive..we'll see if the strengthening continues if we can get some stronger winds down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 Very slightly OT but the one-minute scans on TEWR really are a tremendous help as a storm comes in like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NJ...EXTREME ERN PA...ERN MD...DE...SERN NY...CT...RI...MA. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564... VALID 052238Z - 060045Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...WW IS BEING EXTENDED EWD ACROSS PORTIONS NJ PER COORD W/WFO PHI. WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY QLCS...WHICH WAS EVIDENT AT 2215Z FROM ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY MD NNEWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN PA TO ULSTER COUNTY NY. ACTIVITY FARTHER W ACROSS WRN PA AND WV SHOULD NOT REACH THIS REGION BEFORE SCHEDULED WW EXPIRATION TIME...NOR SHOULD IT POSE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT BY THEN. DISCUSSION...MEASURED GUSTS AT STATIONS ACROSS WHICH QLCS HAS PASSED HAVE BEEN SUB-SVR...PEAKING AT 44 KT AT RDG AT 2059Z. GIVEN PRESENCE OF WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ACTIVITY IS DRIVEN LARGELY BY FORCED ASCENT ALONG ITS GUST FRONT...WHICH HAS SURGED AHEAD OF MAIN REFLECTIVELY CORES IN SOME AREAS. WHILE THIS COMPLEX IS NOT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO ANY GEN STRENGTHENING...EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP FEATURES STILL MAY POSE LOCALIZED RISK OF WIND DAMAGE EVEN WHERE GUSTS ARE SUB-SVR. BRIEF/LOCALIZED INTENSIFICATION ALSO MAY OCCUR WHERE PORTIONS OF THIS LINE ENCOUNTER NJ SEA BREEZE...BEFORE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OCCURS. NARROW RIBBON OF FAVORABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR IS EVIDENT BETWEEN DE RIVER AREA AND SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER PORTIONS CAPE MAY/ATLANTIC/OCEAN/MONMOUTH COUNTIES NJ. IN THAT CORRIDOR...SFC TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S F...AND DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...OFFSET WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...DECREASING NWD TOWARD LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE EARLIER CONVECTION STABILIZED AIR MASS SOMEWHAT. LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT MRGL/ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL NE OF WW FROM NERN NJ OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM GIVEN CONVECTIVE/AIR-MASS TRENDS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/05/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Looks like the strongest winds may be near and just south of I-78 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 Looks like the strongest winds may be near and just south of I-78 now. That area is definitely trying to keep it going..looks like its weakened a bit over the last 10 minutes. We'll see if it pulses up again over my area as it comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 That area is definitely trying to keep it going..looks like its weakened a bit over the last 10 minutes. We'll see if it pulses up again over my area as it comes through. Looked like the northern section of the squall line weakened just a bit in the last 30 minutes per radar loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 All of NYC under a STW now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 That area is definitely trying to keep it going..looks like its weakened a bit over the last 10 minutes. We'll see if it pulses up again over my area as it comes through. It looks like there should be a nice shelf with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 All of NYC under a STW now? Nope and I wouldn't expect one. Was it something I said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Wow couple huge gusts just came through ...I'd estimate at least 45-50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 The area near Millstone, Somerville, and Bound Brook looks pretty interesting on TEWR with some strengthening over the last 10 minutes and a little push northeast. Looks like some strong winds could materialize over Southern Union and Northern Middlesex if that trend continues. Im in this area and the storm proving to be more bite than bark...no lightning, some wind before the rain and maybe 5 minute of downpour before just a lighter rain now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Im in this area and the storm proving to be more bite than bark...no lightning, some wind before the rain and maybe 5 minute of downpour before just a lighter rain now that would be more bark than bite chief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 All of NYC under a STW now? Probably the Special Marine Warning for all of the area waters around New York/Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Im in this area and the storm proving to be more bite than bark...no lightning, some wind before the rain and maybe 5 minute of downpour before just a lighter rain now Reverse that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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